Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Week 13
Friday, November 25
Northern Illinois over Eastern Michigan 56-21
-One of my favorite guys, Chandler Harnish and his group of stud receivers will be too much.
-Northern Illinois clinches the MAC West with a win.
Result: NIU 18, EMU 12

South Florida over Louisville, 24-21
-South Florida has Louisville and West Virginia left on the schedule and needs one win to be bowl eligible.
-Charlie Strong's had some bad losses, but also some really good wins for Louisville.
-BJ Daniels' experience over Teddy Bridgewater will get the win.
Result: Lville 34, USF 24

No. 8 Houston over Tulsa, 47-40
-Can Houston stop Tulsa's offense?
-Tulsa has three losses this season - to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Boise State
-I expect a shootout, but every time I do, it ends up being low-scoring.
-Either way, Houston's defense cannot slow down the nation's better offenses.
Result: Houston 48, Tulsa 16

No. 21 Nebraska over Iowa, 27-24
-Iowa's got the underrated offense that can put up points. Marcus Coker will have to be a big factor on the ground.
-Nebraska's just got blown out by Michigan and fell out of a lot of individual ballots in the polls. They have something to prove.
Result: Nebraska 20, Iowa 7

Temple over Kent State, 35-14
-Temple is 2-1 since sophomore Chris Coyer has taken over at QB, but he has yet to throw an interception.
-Kent State overcame its putrid offense to go on a 4-game win streak. The Golden Flashes become bowl eligible with a win, but likely won't make a bowl game anyway.
-Temple is trying to ensure it gets into a bowl game.
Result: Temple 34, Kent State 16

Bowling Green over Buffalo, 37-27
-Bowling Green led by QB Matt Schilz took Ohio to the brink last week.
-Buffalo has struggled offensively, needing Chazz Anderson's arm and legs to win three games.
Result: Bowling Green 42, Buffalo 28

Western Michigan over Akron, 34-10
-Akron's one win is against VMI so the Zips will again go winless against FBS teams.
-Western Michigan QB Alex Carder is one of the most underrated QBs in the nation. The bowl-eligible Broncos can pick up their 7th win of the season and fight for a spot in the postseason.
Result: Western Michigan 68, Akron 19

Toledo over Ball State, 38-13
-Ball State really surprised me last week almost beating Northern Illinois thanks to two Huskies fumbles.
-Toledo is the best offensive team in the MAC. No way they let up now against Ball State.
-With a win and a Northern Illinois loss, Toledo wins the MAC West.
Result: Toledo 45, Ball State 28

No. 1 LSU over No. 3 Arkansas, 26-21
-This game obviously has huge BCS implications. For Arkansas to get into a BCS Bowl game, it's national championship or nothing. With a win, Arkansas can possibly (but not likely?) move into the No. 2 spot of the BCS, which would send Alabama to SEC Championship Game, and then if Alabama loses to Georgia, Arkansas could move to No. 1 with LSU at No. 2 for the national championship. There is no scenario that I can think of where Arkansas makes a BCS Bowl other than the championship game because if Georgia wins the SEC, they go to the Sugar Bowl and gives the BCS limit of three teams.
-LSU struggled slightly with West Virginia and its passing game and receivers. So, Arkansas' offense with receivers Greg Childs, Jarius Wright, Cobi Hamilton, Joe Adams and tight end Chris Gragg is better than West Virginia's group of Tavon Austin, Stedman Bailey, Ivan McCartney and Tyler Urban. Arkansas also has the running game to complement.
-Last year Arkansas ran the ball 47 times with Knile Davis. This year, no Davis, but a complement of backs with Ronnie Wingo, Dennis Johnson and Broderick Green.
-Arkansas defense gives up a lot of rushing yards, and LSU can pound the rock with Spencer Ware and Michael Ford.
-Razorbacks also struggled on the road with Alabama, Vanderbilt and Ole Miss.
-Arkansas has had trouble all year protecting QB Tyler Wilson, with four new starting offensive linemen this year. LSU has the best pass rush in the SEC and will get to Wilson. Wilson does a very nice job of standing firm and delivering the ball though.
-Arkansas punt returner, Joe Adams, has three punts returned for touchdowns this season, including a 61-yarder last week where he evaded eight tackles against Mississippi State. LSU punter Brad Wing has allowed the fewest punt return yards in the nation.
Result: LSU 41, Arkansas 17

Utah over Colorado, 28-21
-Utah started the season off shaky and looked like they couldn't compete in the Pac-12 with the big boys, but now with a win here against 2-10 Colorado, the Utes will be in a three-way for the Pac-12 South Division if UCLA loses to USC.
Result: Colorado 17, Utah 14

Miami over Boston College, 24-17
-Miami announced they will forgo a bowl game this year due to the Nevin Shapiro scandal, which means this is Miami's bowl game against Boston College. For the seniors, it will be the last time they ever suit up.
Result: Boston College 24, Miami 17

West Virginia over Pittsburgh, 31-24
-Could this be the last Backyard Brawl in a few years? One of college football's greatest rivalries may be coming to an end as Pitt is scheduled to move to the ACC for the 2014 season and West Virginia is looking to move to the Big 12 next season.
-The game is in Morgantown and with this win, and the Big East tiebreaker rules, West Virginia likely clinches a BCS Bowl-berth.
-Pitt can put up points, but West Virginia will be too much. Pitt doesn't have the proper personnel to defend a spread, but it's a rivalry game so anything can happen and the Panthers will keep it close.
Result: West Virginia 21, Pittsburgh 20

Central Florida over UTEP, 30-17
-With the loss last week to East Carolina, UCF has nothing left to play for except pride as they won't be bowl eligible.
-UTEP must get this win to be bowl eligible.
-Central Florida can play the role of spoiler, which they did so well last year by beating East Carolina, Houston and SMU.
Result: Central Florida 31, UTEP 14

Arizona State over California, 28-7
-Arizona State isn't completely out of the Big 12 South picture yet and need to win to stay in it.
-ASU is one of the nation's most underachieving teams because I believe they have a Top-15 roster.
-The Sun Devils have lost three straight games to UCLA, Washington State and Arizona when it would have taken just one win to clinch the division.
-Cal is a talented team, but Arizona State's defense needs to come out dominant.
Result: California 47, Arizona State 38

Saturday, November 26
No. 9 Oklahoma over Iowa State, 52-17
-Iowa State head coach Paul Rhoads has a knack for pulling off big wins, like last week against Oklahoma State, but can he do it two weeks in a row? The Cyclones are now bowl eligible and have nothing left to play for except bowl positioning.
-Oklahoma has Bedlam next week against Oklahoma State that will decide the Big 12…unless the Sooner get caught looking ahead and overlook Iowa State.
-Oklahoma's BCS hopes hinge on this game and its next game.
Result: Oklahoma 26, Iowa State 6

UPSET: No. 23 Georgia Tech over No. 13 Georgia, 35-33
-Listen, I've been one of the guys that's said how overrated Georgia is all year. The Bulldogs started the season 0-2 and have won nine straight since, but struggled with Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Florida and Kentucky last week. Seriously, Missouri could go undefeated in the SEC with Georgia's schedule, and notably, Georgia didn't play LSU…or Alabama…or Arkansas.
-Now, Georgia with the SEC Championship Game ahead of them head on the road to Georgia Tech, not an easy place to play.
-If Tech gets its offense going, and with its improved defense, it's game over Georgia.
Result: Georgia 31, Georgia Tech 17

No. 14 Michigan State over Northwestern, 28-27
-Michigan State is another team with the division already clinched so could take a week off the intensity meter. Northwestern is going to push them to the brink if the Spartans come out flat.
Result: Michigan State 31, Northwestern 17

No. 15 Michigan over Ohio State, 24-14
-Michigan has not won this rivalry game in seven years. Can first year head coach Brady Hoke do it in year one?
-Both QBs, Denard Robinson and Braxton Miller, lead their teams in rushing. Denard Robinson needs just seven rushing yards to get 1,000.
-Braxton Miller, the true freshman, has grown up the last three weeks making clutch play after clutch play.
-Both defenses are stingy, especially the improved Michigan D under Greg Mattison and there are two outstanding defensive tackles on display with Michigan's Mike Martin and Ohio State's John Simon.
-Ohio State has Boom Herron and DeVier Posey back. Michigan's gone to Fitzgerald Touissant as its featured back and he's been running well.
-The two teams look pretty even on paper except for their records. Will the Urban Meyer to Ohio State rumors be a distraction for the Buckeyes? Or a motivation factor to play harder for coach Luke Fickell?
-I believe Michigan gets to a BCS Bowl game with this win and Ohio State's offensive inefficiency will cost them, if Michigan can play like they did last week against Nebraska.
Result: Michigan 30, Ohio State 24

Rutgers over Connecticut, 24-10
-Rutgers played lights out defensively last week against Cincinnati. The offensive for Rutgers is there and the defense is coming along. Chas Dodd has taken the QB job back from true freshman Gary Nova and played well.
-Rutgers keeps itself in the hunt for the Big East title with this win against a horrible UConn offense.
Result: UConn 40, Rutgers 22

Cincinnati over Syracuse, 28-24
-I think Syracuse is going to surprise Cincinnati early on, but the Bearcats have too much firepower to be held down too long, with Syracuse not having safety Shamarko Thomas, Zach Collaros will have a big passing day.
Result: Cincinnati 30, Syracuse 13

SMU over Rice, 35-20
-SMU was shut down by Houston last week as Cougars' linebacker Sammy Brown had three sacks. Rice doesn't have a pass rush that will worry SMU.
-SMU's offense will get back on track.
Result: SMU 27, Rice 24

Tennessee over Kentucky, 27-20
-Tennessee is playing the Kentucky team that lost to Florida 48-10…that lost to LSU 35-7…that lost to South Carolina 54-3…that lost to Vanderbilt 38-8. Joker Phillips is a great guy, not a great coach. Tennessee wins and becomes bowl eligible.
Result: Kentucky 10, Tennessee 7

Troy over Western Kentucky, 31-23
-This is Western Kentucky's last chance to show why it should receive one of the Sun Belt Conference's two bowl bids.
-Bobby Rainey should carry Western Kentucky's offense again but the Hilltoppers have struggled against high-octane passing attacks like that of Troy, led by Corey Robinson.
Result: Western Kentucky 41, Troy 18

NC State over Maryland, 34-21
-Could Maryland really finish 2-10 in Randy Edsall's first season? With wins over Miami and Towson?
-NC State played its best game in the win over Clemson last week and QB Mike Glennon is finally coming around.
Result: NC State 56, Maryland 41

No. 7 Boise State over Wyoming, 44-20
-Boise State still has an outside chance at a BCS game, even though I think Oklahoma State, Michigan, and the Big Ten Leaders Division winner (Penn State or Wisconsin) loses the title game, and preferably Houston would all have to lose.
-The Broncos need to continue to rack put the "style points"
Result: Boise State 36, Wyoming 14

Nevada over Utah State, 34-27
-Nevada just dismissed leading rusher Mike Ball from the team and lost last week to Louisiana Tech to all but lose sole possession of the WAC Title.
-Utah State's Chuckie Keeton has had a stellar freshman season, but now Nevada's freshman Cody Fajardo is doing what Colin Kaepernick used to do and leading a revamped Nevada team.
Result: Utah State 21, Nevada 17

No. 2 Alabama over No. 24 Auburn, 42-13
-Alabama needs to outdo Georgia's domination of Auburn last week. This is Alabama's last chance to show voters why they deserve to play for the BCS championship.
-Alabama has a sign in its locker room that has Cam Newton's face on it with the words "Never Again."
Result: Alabama 42, Auburn 14.

No. 5 Virginia Tech over Virginia, 27-17
-The Commonwealth Cup decides the ACC Coastal Division that Virginia Tech has owned for so long.
-Virginia Tech RB David Wilson should be the real Heisman favorite but no one outside of Blacksburg, VA is paying attention to him. VT QB Logan Thomas is playing his best football of the season at the perfect time.
-Virginia has fought valiantly in every game this season, losing only to NC State by two touchdown margins.
-Virginia's had a good season and Mike London has done a great job, but I'm not sure he can keep it going, although home field advantage could help the Cavs.
Result: Virginia Tech 38, Virginia 0

No. 10 Oregon over Oregon State, 42-21
-The Civil War should not be very exciting this year.
Result: Oregon 49, Oregon State 21

No. 16 Wisconsin over No. 19 Penn State, 24-13
-The winner of this game in Camp Randall wins the Big Ten Leaders Division and goes to face Michigan State in the Inaugural Big Ten Championship Game.
-The Big Ten has removed Joe Paterno's name amid the allegations at Penn State from the championship trophy. Penn State wants to win the trophy and put a post-it note with "Paterno" on the trophy. In order to have the opportunity to do that, the Nittany Lions have to beat Wisconsin.
-Wisconsin has committed just seven turnovers all season, second to only LSU, so Penn State's focus has to be at forcing Wisconsin to go the length of the field on multiple drives.
-So much is made of Penn State's defense but Wisconsin has a top ten defense of its own and its offense has averaged 52.3 points per game at home in Camp Randall.
-Penn State has been able to stop the run in some games but hasn't seen a power running game like Wisconsin since Alabama, but the absence of Wisconsin center Peter Konz could be something the Nittany Lions try to capitalize on.
Result: Wisconsin 45, Penn State 7

Florida International over Middle Tennessee, 34-17
-FIU trying to improve to 8-4, which puts them in a better position perhaps than Louisiana and Western Kentucky for the Sun Belt's second bowl spot.
Result: FIU 31, Middle Tennessee 18

Purdue over Indiana, 28-21
-Purdue needs a win on Indiana's Senior Day to become bowl eligible.
-Indiana needs a win to not go winless in conference play in Kevin Wilson's first season as coach.
-Indiana has scored more than 24 points just once in a loss to Northwestern.
Result: Purdue 33, Indiana 25

Illinois over Minnesota, 30-14
-Illinois started the season 6-0 and has lost five straight. Ron Zook is done at Illinois if his team loses a sixth straight to Minnesota.
Result: Minnesota 27, Illinois 7

North Carolina over Duke, 28-10
-This is a HUGE rivalry in rivalry week. Oh wait, it's football not basketball.
Result: UNC 37, Duke 21

UPSET: Vanderbilt over Wake Forest, 19-16
-Vanderbilt lost in overtime to Tennessee last week on a questionable call so the Commodores need this win to be bowl eligible. James Franklin has a done great job with Vanderbilt in year one. The Vanderbilt defense will keep this a low scoring game, which will help Vanderbilt.
Result: Vandy 41, Wake Forest 7

East Carolina over Marshall, 34-31
-The winner of this game gets a bowl bid. Neither team plays defense so I'll go with the East Carolina offense.
Result: Marshall 34, ECU 27 (OT)

Missouri over Kansas, 34-24
-This could be the Border War too as we see a lot of great rivalries come to an end this year with conference realignment. Jordan Webb and James Franklin are similar quarterbacks but Franklin has a lot more weapons and a better defense, but again anything can happen in a rivalry game.
Result: Missouri 24, Kansas 10

Arizona over Louisiana-Lafayette, 37-24
-Arizona just hired Rich Rodriguez to be its next coach and now wants to win on Senior Day. Good thing Senior Day is against Louisiana. Expect Nick Foles to have a great game in his last game as an Arizona Wildcat.
Result: Arizona 45, ULL 37

UAB over Florida Atlantic, 24-7
-Two games left for the 0-10 FAU Owls in Coach Howard Schnellenberger's last season as a head coach. He just hasn't had a quarterback to replace Jeff VanCamp.
Result: FAU 38, UAB 35

Louisiana Tech over New Mexico State, 34-13
-New Mexico State has pulled off some wins this year: Minnesota, Idaho, Fresno State. But not this time.
Result: La Tech 44, N. Mex State 0

Southern Miss over Memphis, 31-10
-Southern Miss lost last week with the Conference-USA East Division already clinched. If they're more motivated to play this week the Golden Eagles win easily.
Result: S.Miss 44, Memphis 7

Air Force over Colorado State, 34-27
-Colorado State gives up a lot of rushing yards including a season high 393 to Boise State.
Result: Air Force 45, CSU 21

No. 18 Baylor over Texas Tech, 48-41
-Time for a Big 12 Shootout? Texas Tech can become bowl eligible but Robert Griffin will be too much.
Result: Baylor 66, TTU 42

Florida State over Florida, 20-17
-This should be a great game in The Swamp.
-Florida is on the brink of a .500 season, mostly due to the fact that the offense doesn't have the players to fit the system yet but the Gators still have an outstanding defense…that didn't show up last week against Furman.
-Florida State has a great defense of its own that we forget held Oklahoma and has been playing its best football the last five weeks.
-Which coach, Will Muschamp or Jimbo Fisher, gets his team more motivated? Florida State won this game last year in Jimbo's first season and Coach Urban Meyer's last.
-Florida kicker Caleb Sturgis and Florida State kicker Dustin Hopkins are both Lou Groza Award finalists.
Result: FSU 21, Florida 7

Mississippi State over Ole Miss, 33-30
-The Egg Bowl was a classic last year as Mississippi State won for the first since 1988 in Oxford.
-This year, neither team is any good at all with Ole Miss winless in the SEC and Mississippi State needing a win to be bowl eligible.
-This will be Houston Nutt's last game as coach of Ole Miss so do they send him out a winner?
Result: Miss St 31, Ole Miss 3

Washington over Washington State, 31-27
-The Apple Cup should be a good one. Washington has struggled defensively while Washington State's offense is much improved.
Result: Washington 38, WSU 21

UPSET: No. 17 Clemson over No. 12 South Carolina, 21-17
-South Carolina is one of the nation's leaders with 29 takeaways and Clemson has turned the ball over six times in its last two games.
-Clemson has played the last two weeks without RB Andre Ellington and superstar freshman WR Sammy Watkins. Watkins is expected back this week alone with left tackle Phillip Price.
-South Carolina has won two in a row in this in-state rivalry but hasn't won three in a row since 1970.
Result: SCAR 34, CLEM 13

No. 6 Stanford over No. 22 Notre Dame, 34-28
-Stanford has allowed more than 350 yards to its last two opponents: Oregon and California.
-Andrew Luck has never lost to Notre Dame and needs to have an awesome showing to solidify his Heisman Trophy status.
-Stanford is still without top receiver (and really, only receiver) Chris Owusu and tight end Zach Ertz.
-Stanford is currently 6th in the BCS Standings and not guaranteed a BCS Bowl-berth unless it is ranked in the Top 4. The Cardinal would need to win and have Oklahoma State and Virginia Tech lose for that to happen.
Result: STAN 28, ND 14

Fresno State over San Jose State, 27-21
-San Jose State did a nice job of playing spoiler for Navy last week, being the Midshipmen 27-24 to keep them out of a bowl game.
-Fresno State beat Hawaii 24-21, but that could have been because of the allegations of point shaving against Hawaii.
-Fresno QB Derek Carr should provide problems for San Jose State.
Result: San Jose State 27, Fresno 24

USC over UCLA, 45-24
-Good stat: UCLA has only won three conference road games in the Rick Neuheisel era.
-USC is in the Top 10 of AP Poll and first place in the Pac-12 South but the postseason ban placed on the program because of Reggie Bush does not allow USC to play in the conference championship game.
-If UCLA wins, they play for the Pac-12 Championship (I'm not going to say, they win the Pac-12 South because USC has already won that).
-This could be the last game of Matt Barkley's USC career if he decides to enter the NFL Draft (You heard it here first, I personally think he doesn't and come backs to USC for his senior year).
-UCLA can score some points against USC but the Trojans have way too much firepower.
Result: USC 50, UCLA 0

San Diego State over UNLV, 47-20
-UNLV has two wins, one of them to Hawaii and that game is under scrutiny because of point shaving allegations at Hawaii.
-This is a really, really bad UNLV team.
Result: San Diego State 31, UNLV 14

Hawaii over Tulane, 34-22
-Hey, here's another game Hawaii should win easily…or will they not cover the spread and possibly lose? They would be dumb to do that now that an investigation has been launched amid allegations of point shaving directed at Hawaii.
-Hawaii needs to win this game and next week against BYU to become bowl eligible.
Ongoing: Hawaii leads 28-16 in 4th quarter

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