With just seven of the thirty five bowl games played so far, the fun is just getting started. From today until the end of 2011, there are 16 more bowl games. You can download all of my game previews here: http://ow.ly/d/rnp but right now I'll break down all the matchups and see which team has an advantage in certain areas.
Also, it's always hard to just pick one, but I'll try to pick a good player to watch for each game.
AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl, Dec. 26 5pm
Missouri (7-5) vs. North Carolina (7-5)
Coach: Everett Withers, North Carolina
Stat: Both teams allow exactly 23.5 points per game.
Quarterback: North Carolina - James Franklin (Missouri) can make plays with his feet but is prone to turning the ball over. Bryn Renner (UNC) is a pocket passer who's very efficient and somewhat mobile.
Running back: Giovani Bernard, North Carolina - Missouri lost its leading rusher Henry Josey to an injury. Bernard has had an outstanding freshman season.
Receivers: Even - maybe a slight edge to Missouri for more depth and a better tight end, Michael Egnew, but North Carolina has two studs: Dwight Jones and Erik Highsmith.
Offensive Line: Missouri
Defensive Line: North Carolina
Linebackers: North Carolina
Secondary: North Carolina
Special Teams: Missouri
Offensive Player to Watch: Erik Highsmith, WR, North Carolina
Defensive Player to Watch: Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
My Pick: North Carolina
Little Caesars Bowl, Dec. 27 4:30 p.m.
Western Michigan (7-5) vs. Purdue (6-6)
Coach: Bill Cubit, Western Michigan
Quarterback: Western Michigan
Running back: Purdue
Receivers: Western Michigan - Purdue is without two starting receivers.
Offensive Line: Western Michigan
Defensive Line: Purdue
Linebackers: Purdue
Secondary: Purdue
Special Teams: Purdue
Offensive Player to Watch: Jordan White, WR, Western Michigan
Defensive Player to Watch: Kawann Short, DT, Purdue
My Pick: Purdue
Belk Bowl, Dec. 27 8 p.m.
Louisville (7-5) vs. NC State (7-5)
Coach: Charlie Strong, Louisville
Quarterback: Even - the growth of Teddy Bridgewater (Louisville) has been fun to watch but Mike Glennon (NC State) finally reached his potential with a stellar performance in the final two weeks of the season.
Running back: Louisville - neither team has a featured back, but Louisville's trio is better than NC State's duo.
Receivers: Louisville - Michaelee Harris and DeVante Parker are two really good freshmen.
Offensive Line: NC State - Neither is any good, but NC State is a bit more physical
Defensive Line: NC State
Linebackers: NC State
Secondary: Even
Special Teams: Louisville
Offensive Player to Watch: T.J. Graham, WR, NC State
Defensive Player to Watch: David Amerson, CB, NC State
My Pick: Louisville
Military Bowl pres. by Northrop Grumman, Dec. 28 4:30 p.m.
Toledo (8-4) vs. Air Force (7-5)
Coach: Troy Calhoun, Air Force
Quarterback: Toledo
Running back: Toledo
Receivers: Toledo
Offensive Line: Toledo
Defensive Line: Toledo
Linebackers: Air Force
Secondary: Air Force
Special Teams: Toledo
Offensive Player to Watch: Eric Page, WR, Toledo
Defensive Player to Watch: Jon Davis, S, Air Force
My Pick: Toledo
Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl, Dec. 28 8 p.m.
California (7-5) vs. Texas (7-5)
Coach: Mack Brown, Texas
Quarterback: California - Zach Maynard is best outside of the pocket but Texas is still trying to settle on a quarterback.
Running back: Texas - Malcolm Brown and Joe Bergeron are expected to be healthy and should carry the Texas offense.
Receivers: Even - Cal has two good ones, Keenan Allen and Marvin Jones. Texas is wealthy at the position but needs a quarterback who can spread the ball around.
Offensive Line: Even
Defensive Line: Texas
Linebackers: Texas
Secondary: Texas
Special Teams: Texas
Offensive Player to Watch: Keenan Allen, WR, California
Defensive Player to Watch: Carrington Byndom, CB, Texas
My Pick: Texas
Champs Sports Bowl, Dec. 29 5:30 p.m.
Florida State (8-4) vs. Notre Dame (8-4)
Coach: Jimbo Fisher, Florida State
Quarterback: Florida State
Running back: Florida State - Both teams will use multiple backs, but Notre Dame is without Jonas Gray for the bowl game.
Receivers: Florida State - Notre Dame has the star, Michael Floyd, but not much other help.
Offensive Line: Notre Dame
Defensive Line: Florida State
Linebackers: Notre Dame
Secondary: Even
Special Teams: Florida State
Offensive Player to Watch: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
Defensive Player to Watch: Brandon Jenkins, DE, Florida State
My Pick: Florida State
Valero Alamo Bowl, Dec. 29 9 p.m.
Washington (7-5) vs. Baylor (9-3)
Coach: Art Briles, Baylor
Quarterback: Baylor
Running back: Even
Receivers: Baylor
Offensive Line: Baylor
Defensive Line: Washington
Linebackers: Even
Secondary: Washington
Special Teams: Baylor
Offensive Player to Watch: Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor
Defensive Player to Watch: Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington
My Pick: Baylor
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces, Dec. 30 Noon
BYU (9-3) vs. Tulsa (8-4)
Coach: Bronco Mendenhall, BYU
Quarterback: Even
Running back: BYU
Receivers: BYU
Offensive Line: BYU
Defensive Line: BYU
Linebackers: BYU
Secondary: Tulsa
Special Teams: Even
Offensive Player to Watch: G.J. Kinne, QB, Tulsa
Defensive Player to Watch: Kyle Van Noy, LB, BYU
My Pick: BYU
New Era Pinstripe Bowl, Dec. 30 3:20 p.m.
Rutgers (8-4) vs. Iowa State (6-6)
Coach: Paul Rhoads, Iowa State
Quarterback: Iowa State
Running back: Even
Receivers: Even
Offensive Line: Iowa State
Defensive Line: Rutgers
Linebackers: Iowa State
Secondary: Rutgers
Special Teams: Rutgers
Offensive Player to Watch: Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers
Defensive Player to Watch: Jake Knott, LB, Iowa State
My Pick: Rutgers
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl, Dec. 30 6:40 p.m.
Mississippi State (6-6) vs. Wake Forest (6-6)
Coach: Even
Quarterback: Mississippi State - Chris Relf's (Miss St) ability to make plays gets a slight edge over the very efficient Tanner Price (WF)
Running back: Mississippi State
Receivers: Even - each team has one go-to guy and not much else.
Offensive Line: Wake Forest
Defensive Line: Mississippi State
Linebackers: Wake Forest
Secondary: Mississippi State
Special Teams: Wake Forest
Offensive Player to Watch: Chris Givens, WR, Wake Forest
Defensive Player to Watch: Josh Bush, S, Wake Forest
My Pick: Mississippi State
Insight Bowl, Dec. 30 10 p.m.
Iowa (7-5) vs. Oklahoma (9-3)
Coach: Kirk Ferentz, Iowa
Quarterback: Even - Landry Jones (OU) is the better pro prospect but when James Vandenburg (Iowa) is on he's on and when Jones is off he's really off.
Running back: Oklahoma - Iowa's Marcus Coker has been suspended for the bowl game.
Receivers: Iowa - Marvin McNutt, Keenan Davis and Kevonte Martin-Manley for Iowa is a better group than Oklahoma without Ryan Broyles and Jaz Reynolds.
Offensive Line: Even
Defensive Line: Iowa - Oklahoma DE Ronnell Lewis was declared academically ineligible for the game.
Linebackers: Oklahoma
Secondary: Even
Special Teams: Iowa
My Pick: risky going with Oklahoma ... clearly the better team but with a lot of issues, not to mention a reputation of not showing up in the postseason.
Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas, Dec. 31 Noon
Texas A&M (6-6) vs. Northwestern (6-6)
Coach: Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern
Quarterback: Even
Running back: Texas A&M - Cyrus Gray is expected back for the bowl game to give a huge boost.
Receivers: Texas A&M
Offensive Line: Texas A&M - allows the second fewest sacks in the nation
Defensive Line: Texas A&M
Linebackers: Texas A&M
Secondary: Northwestern
Special Teams: Texas A&M
Offensive Player to Watch: Dan Persa, QB, Northwestern
Defensive Player to Watch: Sean Porter, LB, Texas A&M
My Pick: Texas A&M
Hyundai Sun Bowl, Dec. 31 2 p.m.
Georgia Tech (8-4) vs. Utah (7-5)
Coach: Kyle Whittingham, Utah
Quarterback: Georgia Tech
Running back: Even
Receivers: Utah
Offensive Line: Georgia Tech
Defensive Line: Georgia Tech
Linebackers: Utah
Secondary: Utah
Special Teams: Utah
Offensive Player to Watch: Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech
Defensive Player to Watch: Jeremiah Attachou, LB, Georgia Tech
My Pick: Georgia Tech
AutoZone Liberty, Dec. 31 3:30 p.m.
Cincinnati (9-3) vs. Vanderbilt (6-6)
Coach: James Franklin, Vanderbilt
Quarterback: Vanderbilt - Jordan Rodgers (Vandy) has been the key to the Vanderbilt offense. Cincinnati says they might have Zach Collaros back, but I don't know how healthy his broken ankle will be.
Running back: Cincinnati - Isaiah Pead (Cincy) is a faster and a bit quicker than Vanderbilt's Zac Stacy.
Receivers: Cincinnati
Offensive Line: Cincinnati
Defensive Line: Cincinnati
Linebackers: Vanderbilt
Secondary: Vanderbilt
Special Teams: Cincinnati
Offensive Player to Watch: Jordan Rodgers, QB, Vanderbilt
Defensive Player to Watch: Casey Hayward, CB, Vanderbilt
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, Dec. 31 3:30 p.m.
Illinois (6-6) vs. UCLA (6-7)
Coach: there are no head coaches in this game...
Quarterback: Illinois
Running back: Illinois
Receivers: Even
Offensive Line: UCLA
Defensive Line: Illinois
Linebackers: Illinois
Secondary: Illinois
Special Teams: Illinois
Offensive Player to Watch: A.J. Jenkins, WR, Illinois
Defensive Player to Watch: Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois
My Pick: UCLA
Chick-fil-A Bowl, Dec. 31 7:30 p.m.
Virginia (8-4) vs. Auburn (7-5)
Coach: Mike London, Virginia
Quarterback: Even
Running backs: Virginia - Auburn star Michael Dyer is suspended for the game and his Auburn career may be over if he decides to leave the program as rumored. I love Dyer's replacement, Onterio McCalebb and he'll make some players, but Virginia's two backs, Perry Jones and Kevin Parks, will gain a lot more yards.
Receivers: Auburn
Offensive Line: Virginia
Defensive Line: Auburn
Linebackers: Even
Secondary: Virginia
Special Teams: Virginia
Offensive Player to Watch: Onterio McCalebb, RB, Auburn
Defensive Player to Watch: Chase Minnifield, CB, Virginia
Monday, December 26, 2011
Bowl Game Previews
Gildan New Mexico Bowl: Temple (8-4) vs. Wyoming (8-4)
Dec. 17 2 p.m. on ESPN - University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
Temple has the nation’s third best scoring defense allowing just 13.8 points per game but gave up 30+ points to Toledo and Ohio, two MAC teams with explosive offenses. The last time Wyoming won a bowl game was two years ago when they had a true freshman quarterback named Austyn Carta-Samuels. He’s since transferred, but now another true freshman quarterback has taken the helm, Brett Smith. Smith is a dual threat and makes really good decisions. He played his best career game on the road in an upset over San Diego State and led the team in wins over Air Force and went toe-to-toe with TCU.
Wyoming offense revolves around the running game between Smith and junior running back Alvester Alexander (who was also a freshman in Wyoming’s last bowl win and had a big game) but Smith can spread the ball around too to a lot of different guys.
Temple will want to run the ball with sensational running back Bernard Pierce, while Wyoming will want Temple, the nation’s 117th-ranked passing offense, to have to throw the ball. The only problem, Wyoming is 115th in the nation in rush defense.
Temple runs for 256.7 yards per game while Wyoming gives up 230+ yards per game and gave up 303 yards on the ground in a loss to Utah State, but the Cowboys are fourth in the nation in turnover margin. They will have to capitalize.
The game is in New Mexico, while Temple flies across the country, it’s a close game for Wyoming fans. Steve Addazio has a done a nice job in his first year as Temple head coach, but I like Wyoming to upset the Owls.
Pick: Wyoming 26, Temple 21
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Ohio (9-4) vs. Utah State (7-5)
Dec. 17 5:30 p.m. on ESPN - Bronco Stadium, Boise, ID
Utah State is one of the most improved teams in the WAC and burst onto the national scene in week one with a near upset of defending national champion Auburn. True freshman quarterback Chuckie Keeton stole the show with his ability to make plays with his arm and his feet. Keeton then hit a midseason slump and left the Hawaii game with an injury and hasn’t returned this season. Stepping in his prized recruit, Adam Kennedy, who has a big arm. Utah State is 4-0 with Kennedy as the starter and he got them to bowl eligibility while completing 70 percent of his passes and leading three fourth quarter comebacks.
Helping Kennedy at Utah State is junior running back Robert Turbin who’s rushed for 1,416 yards and 19 touchdowns to lead the nation’s sixth best rushing attack. Utah State gains 277 yards per game on the ground while Ohio allows just 130. The MAC runner-up Bobcats are led by a new dual threat quarterback, Tyler Tettleton and has one of the best defenses in the MAC led by linebacker Noah Keller.
A problem for Ohio has been turnovers, in the MAC Championship Game, Tettleton threw three interceptions while Ohio also lost a fumble.
Utah State’s pass defense can be a little suspect, and Ohio will want to get the ball to star receiver LaVon Brazill.
Pick: Ohio 27, Utah State 24
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: San Diego State (8-4) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (8-4)
Dec. 17 9 p.m. on ESPN - Superdome, New Orleans, LA
San Diego State will have to travel across the country to New Orleans where the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns will have a notable home field advantage in its first ever bowl game as an FBS program under first year head coach Mark Hudspeth. San Diego State’s coached by Rocky Long, who took over for Brady Hoke this season so it’s a first bowl trip for both coaches, but Long was there on the staff with Hokie last year as the Aztecs prepared for the Poinsettia Bowl and knows what needs to be done to prepare for a bowl game.
San Diego State senior quarterback Ryan Lindley didn’t have the season I expected him to and regressed some after losing his top two receivers to the NFL last season. Lindley completed just 52.5 percent of his passes and threw three interceptions against a rebuilding TCU secondary. Lindley passed for 2,740 yards this season, down from 3,830 last season.
What’s still there for San Diego State is sophomore running back Ronnie Hillman, one of the best in the nation that no one knows about. Hillman leads the Mountain West with 1,656 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns.
Louisiana quarterback Blaine Gautier is a guy who can make plays with both his arm and his feet and is an underrated passer. Louisiana put up points on Oklahoma State, competed with conference champion Arkansas State and almost upset Arizona. This is a team that can put up points but has struggled to stop the run, giving up 206 yards to Western Kentucky back Bobby Rainey.
Pick: San Diego State 35, Louisiana 21
Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl: Florida International (8-4) vs. Marshall (6-6)
Dec. 20 8 p.m. on ESPN – Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
This may be the least intriguing bowl matchup but still worth watching because of FIU receiver T.Y. Hilton, who just makes plays. Hilton’s playmaking ability led FIU to its first bowl win last year in a 34-32 win over Toledo in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl.
Marshall is the team that maybe deserves to be playing in a bowl game the least. This team somehow beat Southern Miss and Louisville, but beat Memphis by just one and won over East Carolina in overtime just to become bowl eligible in the season finale.
Marshall is 101st in the nation in total offense with true freshman Rakeem Cato at quarterback. Marshall scores about 22 points per game while giving up 30. There is no balance in the offense with a lack of a running game with Tron Martinez.
FIU’s defense gives up just 19 points per game and has an offense that can break out at any moment with running back Kedrick Rhodes and Wesley Carroll at quarterback throwing to Hilton and Wayne Times, who broke out in the win over Troy.
The best player on the field in this game will be Hilton with 950 receiving yards and number on the nation in punt returns. He is electrifying and maybe the only reason to watch this game.
Pick: FIU 34, Marshall 13
S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: TCU (10-2) vs. Louisiana Tech (8-4)
Dec. 21 8 p.m. on ESPN – Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA
If you’re picking bowl games, as long as TCU comes ready to play, this might be the biggest lock of a pick. Louisiana Tech won the WAC title for the right to play in the Poinsettia Bowl, but only to go against TCU. The Horned Frogs won the Mountain West again and just came short of making a BCS Bowl. If not for the overtime loss to SMU, TCU would be in a BCS Bowl.
Casey Pachall has done a formidable job replacing Andy Dalton as TCU’s quarterback and Josh Boyce has become a go-to receiver while the speedy Skye Dawson has filled in for Jeremy Kerley. TCU’s three-headed rushing attack of Waymon James, Matthew Tucker and Ed Wesley hasn’t missed a beat. TCU scores 41.7 points per game.
Louisiana Tech finished the season on a seven game winning streak after Colby Cameron took over at quarterback. La Tech has one receiver to watch named Quinton Patton. The junior has over 1100 receiving yards this seasons and TCU’s secondary has been suspect as it rebuilds. TCU gave up 349 passing yards to SMU, 414 to Baylor and 320 to Boise State.
Louisiana Tech’s most useful weapon though may be Ray Guy Award winning punter Ryan Allen. They’ll be using him often.
Pick: TCU 38, La Tech 17
MAACO Bowl Las Vegas: Arizona State (6-6) vs. Boise State (11-1)
Dec. 22 8 p.m. on ESPN – Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Last year, a missed field goal kept Boise State out of the Rose Bowl. This year, a missed field goal may have kept Boise State out of the national championship game. This was also a year of disappointment for Arizona State, who went 6-6 last year but missed the postseason because of scheduling one too many FCS opponents. ASU had high expectations this year. The Pac-12 South all but belonged to them after they beat USC and a late season collapse threw it all away and cost Dennis Erickson his job.
If both teams are focused and come ready to play, this could be a really entertaining game. Boise is a big favorite, but don’t count out the Sun Devils who are loaded on offense and has a loaded defense that failed to play to its potential.
Arizona State’s defense has battled injuries and Boise QB Kellen Moore is going for his NCAA-leading 50th career win and is 4th in the nation in passing efficiency while Arizona State ranks 91st in passing efficiency defense.
Boise State also allows the least sacks in the nation, and injuries for Arizona State on defense haven’t allowed them to get the pressure they want to on the quarterback.
Of course, we can’t forget about the troubled Arizona State linebacker Vontaze Burfict, who leads his team with five sacks and a million personal fouls.
Boise is going to score its points and be focused, the question is will Arizona State do the same? QB Brock Osweiler has a lot of weapons from running back Cameron Marshall to receivers Gerrell Robinson, Aaron Pflugrad, Mike Willie and Jamal Miles.
Pick: Boise State 42, Arizona State 31
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: Nevada (7-5) vs. Southern Miss (11-2)
Dec. 24 8 p.m. on ESPN – Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, HI
Nevada got off to a sluggish 1-3 start as Tyler Lantrip tried to replace Colin Kaepernick at quarterback. Once the true freshman Cody Fajardo took over, things changed for Nevada as the top ten offense reemerged, gaining over 522 yards per game.
This could be a high-scoring game, the last time Nevada played in the Hawaii Bowl though, it laid an egg against SMU. One of the nation’s best receivers, Rishard Matthews, is back for Nevada and had a big year but the Wolf Pack dismissed their leading tail back Mike Ball.
Southern Miss struggled to find a run game until it moved receiver Tracy Lampley into the backfield. Senior quarterback Austin Davis will be keyed on going out with a bowl win after upsetting Houston in the Conference USA Championship Game. Davis will need to be weary of Isaiah Frey patrolling the secondary for Nevada. Neither team plays defense particularly well but do have playmakers, Southern Miss may have the best defensive player in the game with Cordarro Law who leads the team in sacks.
Pick: Southern Miss 34, Nevada 24
AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl: Missouri (7-5) vs. North Carolina (7-5)
Dec. 26 5 p.m. on ESPN2 – Independence Stadium, Shreveport, LA
Missouri got a nice parting gift from the Big 12 as it heads to the SEC next season and was left out of the Big 12 bowl pecking order. Shreveport isn’t a bad place to be for the Tigers though, in my opinion.
Both teams feature new starting quarterbacks from a year ago, Missouri’s James Franklin and North Carolina’s Bryn Renner. Missouri arguably has the best five losses of any five-loss team (Arizona State in overtime, Oklahoma by 10, Kansas State by 7, Oklahoma State and Baylor by 3).
Missouri’s 11th-ranked rushing offense is hurt with Henry Josey out but the other two backs De’Vion Moore and Kendial Lawrence provide enough balance if they get going. Franklin is also a 1,000-yard rusher and can make plays with his feet while Renner is just a pocket passer, and an efficient one.
North Carolina is a top-15 rush defense, but is 0-2 all-time vs. Missouri. There is a lot of really good defensive talent in this game on both sides, despite Missouri not playing up to standards. Quinton Coples, Donte Paige-Moss, Tydreke Powell, Kevin Reddick, Zach Brown and Charles Brown are among the best defenders in the ACC.
Offensively, North Carolina freshman running back Giovani Bernard has been a pleasant surprise rushing for 1,285 yards while Dwight Jones notched school records with 79 catches and 11 touchdown catches. Renner set the school record with 23 touchdown passes.
North Carolina has hired former-Southern Miss coach Larry Fedora as its next football coach. This will be the final game for interim man Everett Withers, who is rumored to be joining Urban Meyer’s staff at Ohio State.
Pick: North Carolina 24, Missouri 21
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl: Western Michigan (7-5) vs. Purdue (6-6)
Dec. 27 4:30 p.m. on ESPN – Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Alex Carder to Jordan White! …That’s what Purdue will have to try to stop to get a win in Ford Field against MAC opponent, Western Michigan. Jordan White has an NCAA-leading 127 receptions for 1,646 yards and 16 touchdowns. Good thing for Purdue is its defense is much better against the pass than the run, and Western Michigan has little to no run game.
If Purdue can put a cap on White, they should be able to score enough to win. I go back to the Eastern Michigan game for Western Michigan where Jordan White had 7 catches for 70 yards but no touchdowns and the Broncos lost 14-10 in their lowest offensive output of the season. In contrast, White had 16 catches for 238 yards and three touchdowns in Western Michigan’s 66-63 loss to Toledo, its highest offensive output of the season.
For Purdue, last year’s starter Rob Henry went down with an injury…then back up Sean Robinson…and Miami-transfer Robert Marve was recovering from an injury, which gave the job to 4th-stringer Caleb TerBush after he mades with his trickshot video during the offseason.
TerBush has had ups and downs, while Marve takes some snaps as well, but Purdue has playmakers that no one knows about – Antavian Edison, Justin Siller, and O.J. Ross at the receiver position with running back Ralph Bolden back from last year’s torn ACL.
It looks like it’ll be Ricardo Allen, one of the best cornerbacks in the Big Ten, on Jordan White. Purdue’s defense is also stocked with Kawann Short, who has 17 tackles for loss.
Pick: Purdue 28, Western Michigan 24
Belk Bowl: Louisville (7-5) vs. North Carolina State (7-5)
Dec. 27 8 p.m. on ESPN – Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Louisville lost to FIU and Marshall earlier this season, but have won five of its last six headed into bowl season. The growth of true freshman quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has been the key. The Cardinals are extremely young with two promising freshman receivers in Michaelee Harris and DeVante Parker. Louisville’s defense has given up just 19 points per game this season, but the Cardinals do give up a lot of sacks.
NC State ended its season with a 42 point comeback over Maryland as quarterback Mike Glennon lived up to the hype in the final weeks. A lot of pressure will be on Glennon in this game with NC State having virtually no running game (107th in the nation). The good thing for the Wolfpack is that they do not turn the ball over very often.
NC State’s David Amerson leads the nation with 11 interceptions and Bridgewater has a 4:3 touchdown to interception ratio. I think the game will be close, but I give the motivational edge to Charlie Strong and Louisville.
Pick: Louisville 31, NC State 28
Military Bowl pres. by Northrop Grumman: Toledo (8-4) vs. Air Force (7-5)
Dec. 28 4:30 p.m. on ESPN – RFK Stadium, Washington, D.C.
Toledo hasn’t faced an option team all season and they’re tough to prepare for. Air Force brings the nation’s No. 2 rushing offense with 320 yards per game while Toledo plays much better defense against the run than against the pass.
Toledo comes in winning seven of its last eight games, but lost its head coach Tim Beckman to Illinois. The Rockets have already removed the interim tag and named offensive coordinator Matt Campbell as the new head coach.
Air Force is underrated in the secondary, they play well against the pass. Toledo has Eric Page at receiver who just makes plays. I’m not sure Air Force can contain Page. Toledo has a very explosive offense, its scored 49, 60, 66, 44 and 45 in the last five games.
Pick: Toledo 34, Air Force 27
Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl: Texas (7-5) vs. California (7-5)
Dec. 28 8 p.m. on ESPN – Qualcomm Stadium
California comes into a bowl game as the underdog for the first time since 2003. Texas comes in with a 7-5 record and just happy to be back in the postseason after going 5-7 last year.
At first glance, you get the feeling Texas’ defense will dominate Cal, especially with extra time to prepare, but Cal has some playmakers. Texas corners Quandre Diggs and Carrington Byndom will go against Cal receivers Keenan Allen and Marvin Jones. Cal QB Zach Maynard is no slouch either, able to make plays with his feet as well and is most effective when he gets outside of the pocket, so the Texas pass rush will have to keep him contained.
By game time, Texas hopes to have running backs Malcolm Brown and Joe Bergeron healthy again. Cal gives up 130 yards per game on the ground while Texas gains 210, including 393 vs. Texas Tech. Texas will want to establish the run game first, but if they can’t, the Cal secondary has given up big plays.
These two teams can settle the 2004 debate for good on the field. I think Mack Brown will have his Texas team highly motivated to play and with enough time to prepare, Manny Diaz will have defensive fronts Cal has never seen before. Alex Okafor, Jackson Jeffcoat, Keenan Robinson and Emmanuel Acho will make things tough for Cal’s offensive line on blitz looks.
Pick: Texas 24, Cal 10
Champs Sports Bowl: Florida State (8-4) vs. Notre Dame (8-4)
Dec. 29 5:30 p.m. on ESPN – Citrus Bowl, Orlando, FL
Both of these teams had BCS expectations entering the season. Notre Dame’s eight wins came on a pair of four game win streaks and Florida State rebounded from a three game skid to win six of the last seven with the lone loss by one point.
Florida State comes in with its dominating defense that really had two hiccups all season in losses to Clemson and Wake Forest. The defense ranks 6th in the nation in total defense, 4th in the nation in scoring defense (15.2 ppg), 2nd in the nation in rush defense, 9th in the nation in sacks and 5th in the nation in tackles for loss.
I’ll take Florida State’s defense over what Notre Dame has to offer. Notre Dame’s one real playmaker is Michael Floyd. Tommy Rees will start the bowl game but Andrew Hendrix is expected to play at quarterback too. Jonas Gray is out, so it’s up to Cierre Woods to carry the run game.
Florida State’s defense likes to create turnovers and Notre Dame is 116th in the nation in turnover margin and we know when the Irish don’t play well, they turn the ball over a lot. Here’s a good stat too, Florida State is the best in the nation in net punting while Notre Dame is dead last in the nation in punt returns.
It’s the first sellout in Champs Sports Bowl history with a big name matchup, but the numbers don’t look good for Notre Dame.
Pick: Florida State 33, Notre Dame 17
Valero Alamo Bowl: Washington (7-5) vs. Baylor (9-3)
Dec. 29 9 p.m. on ESPN – Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
This is another game where the matchup doesn’t look good for one of the teams. Washington is 94th in the nation in total defense and now they get to go up against Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III and Baylor’s explosive offense ranked No. 2 in total offense. But then you look at the other side, and Baylor’s defense is even worse statistically (114th) but can Washington keep up with Baylor in a shootout?
It’s Baylor’s 5th-ranked pass offense vs. Washington’s 116th-ranked pass defense and Baylor’s 102nd-ranked run defense against Chris Polk of Washington.
I’m sure Baylor wants to ride RG3, but it can simply just hand the ball off to Terrance Ganaway in the physical running game. Stanford’s run game put up 446 yards against Washington.
RG3 is on his way to shattering the NCAA record for passing efficiency in the season and should have no problem doing that against Washington.
Pick: Baylor 45, Washington 24
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl: BYU (9-3) vs. Tulsa (8-4)
Dec. 30 Noon on ESPN – Gerald Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX
BYU is going for a 10-win season after a slow start. This game could give BYU a big boost heading into next season. For Tulsa, it’s GJ Kinne’s last game.
Kinne, the Texas-transfer, has had a nice career at Tulsa but struggled against the better defenses he’s faced this season, Oklahoma, Boise State and Houston. Against ranked teams, Kinne has thrown four touchdowns and seven interceptions. BYU is a solid defensive team and is 7th in the country in pass defense. Also, Kinne has been without his biggest playmaking threat, Damaris Johnson, all season after Johnson was arrested before the season on embezzlement charges.
BYU has gotten hot since Riley Nelson regained the quarterback job from Jake Heaps. Heaps has since decided to transfer. Nelson has been efficient with just five interceptions and Tulsa is 118th in the nation against the pass. Without a lot of pressure, Nelson should be able to find freshman All-American Ross Apo, Cody Hoffman and McKay Jacobson.
Pick: BYU 34, Tulsa 21
New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Iowa State (6-6) vs. Rutgers (8-4)
Dec. 30 3:20 p.m. on ESPN – Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
For whatever reason, I always pick Rutgers and that’s not going to change here. Rutgers’ offense has been up and down under first year coordinator Frank Cignetti but the defense has really turned the corner. Now, Rutgers did completely botch its last game when all it needed was a win to clinch a share of the Big East title and somehow let Connecticut score 40 points, but the Scarlet Knights are ready to put that behind them in front of a hometown crowd at Yankee Stadium.
Rutgers has the No. 1 defense in the Big East led by converted linebacker Khaseem Green and his 127 tackles. The defense gives up just 18.8 points per game. The offense is what needs to get going and it should because despite having some really good defensive players (Jake Knott, AJ Klein and Jake Lattimer), Iowa State doesn’t play defense very well.
Mohamed Sanu of Rutgers set the Big East record with 109 receptions and he’ll go against an Iowa State defense that can’t cover anybody.
It’s tough to count out Iowa State because Paul Rhoads is one of the most underrated coaches in the country, but if Rutgers puts the UConn game behind them and shows up to play, they should be highly favored.
Pick: Rutgers 27, Iowa State 21
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl: Wake Forest (6-6) vs. Mississippi State (6-6)
Dec. 30 6:40 p.m. on ESPN – LP Field, Nashville, TN
It’s the first ever meeting between these two teams and Mississippi State is going for its fifth straight bowl win. Wake Forest is coming off a 41-7 loss at home to Vanderbilt.
Mississippi State will want to pound the ball with Vick Ballard against Wake Forest who gives up 162 yards on the ground per game. Mississippi State’s quarterback play hasn’t been stellar as even Dylan Favre got his chance this year before Chris Relf regained the job. The Bulldogs leading receiver is Chris Smith with just 30 catches and explosive receiver Chad Bumphis hasn’t been a big enough part of the offense.
For Wake Forest, Tanner Price’s maturation led them to a 5-2 start before losing four of the last five games. Price will look for his top target Chris Givens and has thrown just six interceptions this year, but Mississippi State has a pair of ball hawking defensive banks, Johnthan Banks and Nickoe Whitley.
Pick: Mississippi State 23, Wake Forest 14
Insight Bowl: Iowa (7-5) vs. Oklahoma (9-3)
Dec. 30 10 p.m. on ESPN – Sun Devil Stadium, Tempe, AZ
This is not the same Oklahoma team that was preseason No. 1 and is 4th in the nation in total offense. Ever since Oklahoma’s top receiver Ryan Broyles went down with an injury, Landry Jones has thrown zero touchdowns and five interceptions. To make things better, Jones will also be without receiver Jaz Reynolds for the bowl game and running back Dominique Whaley is still out.
That said, Oklahoma is still significantly the better team over Iowa but the Sooners are notorious for not showing up in bowl games and not being motivated to play.
I would not be surprised if Iowa with James Vandenburg, Marcus Coker, Marvin McNutt, Keenan Davis and Kevonte Martin-Manley outplay Oklahoma. With that said, Oklahoma is still too good to lose to Iowa.
Pick: Oklahoma 44, Iowa 27
Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas: Texas A&M (6-6) vs. Northwestern (6-6)
Dec. 31 Noon on ESPN – Reliant Stadium, Houston, TX
Texas A&M, a preseason top ten teams that finishes 6-6. How does that happen? By blowing five double digit leads in the second half of its losses. A&M’s lead over Texas at halftime when it lost was 9.
A&M faces a Northwestern team that hasn’t won a bowl game since the 1949 Rose Bowl. This is clearly a mismatch on paper despite the even records.
Texas A&M has fired coach Mike Sherman, but if they’re focused for this game, they should win easily. Cyrus Gray is back for A&M and Ryan Tannehill should benefit from the time off to get ready for the bowl game to regain his confidence and he still has Ryan Swope and Jeff Fuller to throw to. Northwestern will be without its top corner, Jordan Mabin.
Pick; Texas A&M 34, Northwestern 20
Hyundai Sun Bowl: Georgia Tech (8-4) vs. Utah (7-5)
Dec. 31 2 p.m. on CBS – Sun Bowl, El Paso, TX
Utah used to play a triple-option team all the time in the Mountain West in Air Force but in its first year in the Pac-12, the Utes haven’t seen the triple-option in over a year. Utah was one win away from headed to the Pac-12 Championship Game and then lost to Colorado. Utah’s defense is what kept them in most games in the Pac-12 as the offense hasn’t been effective at all (110th in the nation). Jon Hays is the quarterback after Jordan Wynn was knocked out for the year.
Georgia Tech’s No. 3 rushing offense will go against Utah’s No. 7 rushing defense and the Utes do have prior experience against the triple-option. The question is will it Tevin Washington of Synjyn Davis running it for Georgia Tech, who has lost six straight bowl games.
The different might be the big improvements in Georgia Tech’s defense under Al Groh. The front seven led by Jeremiah Attachou can add a lot of pressure to Hays and keep running back John White IV in check.
Pick: Georgia Tech 24, Utah 14
AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Cincinnati (9-3) vs. Vanderbilt (6-6)
Dec. 31 3:30 p.m. on ABC – Liberty Bowl, Memphis, TN
What a job James Franklin has done changing the culture in Vanderbilt in his first season. Vanderbilt beat Wake Forest 41-7 in the final week to become bowl eligible. This is just the fifth bowl game in Vandy history. When you look at Vandy’s losses, four of them, Tennesse (in overtime), Florida, Arkansas and Georgia came by a combined 13 points. Zac Stacy for Vanderbilt has a school record 1,136 rushing yards.
Cincinnati is expecting Zach Collaros to be back at quarterback for the bowl game and has its own great back in Isaiah Pead, the first Cincinnati player to have back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons in 25 years.
Vanderbilt has been a completely different team since Jordan Rodgers (Aaron Rodgers’ brother) took over as quarterback and made Jordan Matthews one of the best receivers in the SEC.
Beyond the quarterbacks and running backs, these are two really good defenses. Vanderbilt is second in the nation with 17 interceptions and Cincinnati led the Big East with a +15 turnover margin and sacks. Vanderbilt is led by linebacker Chris Marve and cornerback Casey Hayward. Cincinnati is led by defensive tackle Derek Wolfe and linebacker JK Schaffer.
Cincinnati’s 6th-ranked rush defense might be the reason why they win, but I really like the direction this Vanderbilt team is going.
Pick: Vanderbilt 21, Cincinnati 17
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Illinois (6-6) vs. UCLA (6-7)
Dec. 31 3:30 p.m. on ESPN – AT&T Park, San Francisco, CA
Illinois fired Ron Zook and UCLA fired Rick Neuheisel so this will be the first coachless bowl in history. Illinois offensive coordinator Paul Petrino has already left the staff and will join Arkansas and will not coach the bowl game. Illinois defensive coordinator and interim head coach Vic Koenning has already said he will not return to Illinois but will coach the bowl game.
Illinois is 7th in the nation in total defense and that’s all they have going for them, the Illini haven’t scored more than 17 points since Oct. 8 despite trying to create a spark with Riley O’Toole at quarterback. Whitney Mercilus leads the nation with 14.5 sacks and a Big Ten record of 9 forced fumbles.
UCLA will want to run the ball first with Jonathan Franklin but glimpses of the passing game emerged in the Pac-12 Championship as Nelson Rosario made some big catches that everyone has expected throughout his entire career.
This game should be mostly about motivation, and I don’t Illinois players really responded to Ron Zook, but the UCLA players loved Neuheisel.
Pick: UCLA 17, Illinois 13
Chick-fil-A Bowl: Virginia (8-4) vs. Auburn (7-5)
Dec. 31 7:30 p.m. on ESPN – Georgia Dome, Atlanta
It’s Virginia’s first bowl game since 2007 but the bigger news is that Auburn’s star tailback Michael Dyer is suspended for this game for violating team rules. The even bigger news is that Auburn defensive coordinator Ted Roof is gone for Central Florida and offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn is gone to be the head coach at Arkansas State. Both coordinators leaving kind of makes you wonder what’s happening at Auburn.
Auburn had almost zero offense in SEC play while going through three quarterbacks. Virginia had played two quarterbacks early on until it finally settled on Michael Rocco. Both these teams average in the low 20s in points scored. The difference in Virginia this year has been its defense creating clutch plays. Auburn’s defense on the other hand, has been bad. Really, really bad. But it’s an extremely young squad. Perry Jones and Kevin Parks create a good 1-2 punch out of the Virginia backfield but in the passing game, Kris Burd is the only real threat Auburn has to worry about.
Onterrio McCalebb will take over for Dyer and should make some big plays. McCalebb is one of those underappreciated backs, but just makes plays. He averages 6.3 yards per carry for his career and is a good receiver out of the backfield.
Pick: Virginia 28, Auburn 21
TicketCity Bowl: Penn State (9-3) vs. Houston (12-1)
Jan. 2 Noon on ESPNU – Cotton Bowl, Dallas
The nation’s No. 1 passing offense takes on the nation’s No. 5 passing defense. Houston’s quarterback Case Keenum has set pretty much all the NCAA passing records and has 5,099 yards and 45 touchdowns this season. Penn State has allowed just nine touchdown passes all season; Keenum threw nine touchdowns in one game against Tulane. Houston scores 50.8 points per game; Penn State gives up 15.7 points per game. Houston passes for 443.8 yards per game; Penn State gives up 162.2 passing yards per game.
Are Penn State’s numbers skewed for not facing that many pass first offenses in the Big Ten? Maybe. We’ll find out in this game.
Houston is fast, really fast. Can Penn State keep up? Penn State is really physical. Can Houston battle?
Patrick Edwards, Justin Johnson, and Tyron Carrier are three receivers Penn State can’t let get behind him. Houston also has a three-headed attack out of the backfield with Charles Sims, Michael Hayes and Bryce Beall.
Keenum has show he struggles under pressure and Penn State doesn’t blitz a lot but has shown it can get pressure with its defensive line. Devon Still blows up a lot of plays in the backfield.
Penn State hasn’t been able to score a lot of points but has been able to protect its quarterback. It will have to protect McGloin against Sammy Brown, who has 12.5 sacks.
Penn State will need its defense to get pressure and force turnovers and will have to move the ball offensively and establish the run game with Silas Redd. Houston gives up 171.8 yards per game on the ground.
Pick: Penn State 34, Houston 30
Outback Bowl: Michigan State (10-3) vs. Georgia (10-3)
Jan. 2 1 p.m. on ABC – Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Michigan State has back-to-back 10-win seasons for the first time in history, but Mark Dantonio is 0-4 in bowl games. Kirk Cousins will try to end his career at Michigan State with Dantonio’s first bowl win.
For Georgia, they’re coming off the collapse against LSU in the SEC Championship Game. LSU ran the ball down Georgia’s throat in the second half, which is what Michigan State will want to do. The Spartans have been rolling, scoring 38.6 points per game in its last five games.
Both teams are in the top five nationally in total defense (Georgia at 3, Michigan State at 5) and both have very efficient quarterbacks.
Cousins may have more weapons between his running game BJ Cunningham and Keshawn Martin, while Murray’s weapons are young freshmen, who’ve never been to a bowl game before.
Michigan State’s pass defense led by Johnny Adams will put Murray to the test and Georgia will have to get some kind of run game going against the aggressive Jerel Worthy on Michigan State’s defensive front. A lot makes me lean towards Michigan State, but for some reason I like Georgia in this game. Maybe it’s just another SEC > Big Ten scenario.
Pick: Georgia 27, Michigan State 24
Capital One Bowl: Nebraska (9-3) vs. South Carolina (10-2)
Jan. 2 1 p.m. on ESPN – Citrus Bowl
This is the best bowl game Nebraska has played in in a while. This is the best bowl game South Carolina has played in, ever. The Gamecocks have lost three straight bowl games but find themselves here with a 10-win season after dismissing Stephen Garcia, who was quarterback for all three of the previous bowl losses. It’s the second time in history South Carolina has had 10 wins.
South Carolina also lost Marcus Lattimore to a torn ACL earlier this season but seems to not be missing him as much with the true freshman Brandon Wilds doing an admirable job in Lattimore’s place and Connor Shaw just leading his team to wins.
This is a really good matchup and if Nebraska plays at a high level, should be a great game. Nebraska’s defense is perhaps better on paper, but South Carolina’s defense is 4th in the nation and No. 2 against the pass. Nebraska is a run-first offense.
Interestingly, Taylor Martinez has not run for more than 56 yards since Oct. 8. Nebraska’s 13th-ranked rush offense led by Rex Burkhead gets 223.9 yards per game but “T-Magic” hasn’t contributed much to it lately.
The way to beat Nebraska is always to make Martinez pass and if the Gamecocks can do that, then they will have a field day defensively with Jadeveon Clowney and Melvin Ingram rushing the passer and Stephon Gilmore and Antonio Allen patrolling the secondary.
Pick: South Carolina 20, Nebraska 17
TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl: Florida (6-6) vs. Ohio State (6-6)
Jan. 2 1 p.m. on ESPN2 – EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL
A pair of programs that have been really good in recent years now face each other and they’re both 6-6. Now, I’m against having 6-6 teams in bowl games, but if we didn’t, we wouldn’t have this game – the Urban Meyer Bowl.
This game features Florida’s 102nd-ranked total offense vs. Ohio State’s 107th-ranked total offense. Both offenses have a lot of playmakers but Florida’s playmakers didn’t give Charlie Weis and Florida that “schematic advantage” that’s become a joke. Weis did seem to make John Brantley better, but then Brantley had to battle injuries and the players around him didn’t fit the offense. Despite that, those guys are still Chris Rainey, Jeff Demps and Andre Debose – guys who can make plays in the right spots.
The problem for Florida has been turnovers, and Ohio State creates a lot of them. Florida is 113th in the nation in turnover margin and lost to Florida State by only giving up 95 total yards because of turnovers. The Gators have been hindered by them and have scored 13 or less points in six of the last seven games.
This game also features two really good defenses that I think will play well. The key will be if Florida can contain Braxton Miller. Florida’s pass defense is surprisingly good for having a lot of freshman in the secondary. Marcus Roberson and DeAnte Saunders have played well and the secondary gives up just 167 passing yards per game.
Miller can throw the ball but creates plays and throwing opportunities with his feet. Therefore, Ohio State’s 116th ranked passing attack is a misnomer. DeVier Posey is back for Ohio State and Jake Stoneburner creates matchup players. However, Ohio State’s offensive line has given up a lot of sacks and Florida’s Ronald Powell loves to get after the quarterback. If Florida can contain Miller, this game will be a defensive battle.
Pick: Florida 20, Ohio State 16
Rose Bowl Game pres. by Vizio: Oregon (11-2) vs. Wisconsin (11-2)
Jan. 2 5 p.m. on ESPN – Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA
Wisconsin will be the best offensive line Oregon faces all season. They can run teams over and also protect Russell Wilson. Oregon is third in the nation in sacks averaging over three per game. Wisconsin’s offensive line is big, Oregon’s defensive line is really fast. That’s a mismatch that Oregon needs to exploit like they did against Stanford’s physical offensive line. Oregon forced Andrew Luck into mistakes so it’s not inconceivable to think they can do the same to Wilson.
Russell Wilson came to Wisconsin for one reason – to win a Rose Bowl. I don’t think he’ll let this opportunity slip by. Wisconsin is two Hail Mary plays away from playing for the national championship.
The big question will be if Wisconsin can keep Oregon’s plays in front of them. If this turns into a track meet, Wisconsin doesn’t have a chance and teams have shown in the past that you can run against this year’s Wisconsin defense. This will be the last game for LaMichael James in an Oregon uniform as he’s already announced he will declare for the 2012 NFL Draft. Kenjon Barner and De’Anthony Thomas create some match up problems for Wisconsin too.
What favors Wisconsin is in Oregon’s two losses, they’ve been exposed in multiple areas. In Oregon’s loss to LSU, LSU’s ground game pounded away and wore Oregon out, which Wisconsin can do. In Oregon’s loss to USC, they were lit up in the passing game by Matt Barkley, which Wisconsin can do.
Wisconsin running back Montee Ball finished fourth in the Heisman Trophy voting and will play with a chip on his shoulder and run behind his offensive line that will look to wear Oregon down and keep that offense off the field.
Pick: Wisconsin 34, Oregon 24
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State (11-1) vs. Stanford (11-1)
Jan. 2 8:30 p.m. on ESPN – U. of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Shootout Alert. This game has the potential to be really appealing to offensive minded fans. This may be the best quarterback matchup of bowl season, how about Brandon Weeden vs. Andrew Luck? Weeden leads the nation’s No. 2 scoring offense and Luck leads the nation’s No. 5 scoring offense. Luck will be the No. 1 draft pick in the 2012 NFL Draft and Weeden may go in the second round, but in this matchup – Advantage: Weeden. He’s just got more playmakers that Luck does. Andrew Luck’s top target Chris Owusu hasn’t been consistent and over half of Luck’s 35 touchdown passes have gone to his three tight ends – Coby Fleener, Zach Ertz and Levine Toilolo. Stanford has the edge in the running game numbers wise, averaging over 207 yards per game but that stat got a boost from 446 yards against Washington. Stepfan Taylor likes to run behind that physical Stanford offensive line that can win in the trenches but they’ll be dealing with Jamie Blatnick and Richetti Jones of Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma State running back Joseph Randle quietly has 23 touchdowns this season while averaging over 6.1 yards per carry. Randle is a guy that break the big run at any moment, despite this longest run this season being just 32 yards.
Say what you want about Oklahoma State’s defense being bad. Its 107th national ranking doesn’t look good, but it is a “bend don’t break” defense and capitalizes on turnovers. The Cowboys are +20 in the turnover margin.
Stanford’s defense isn’t all that great either. They do get after the quarterback with Chase Thomas and his 8.5 sacks and the defense ranks 6th in sacks, but getting to Weeden has been tough for opposing teams due to his quick release and five returning starting offensive lineman.
Pick: Oklahoma State 45, Stanford 35
Allstate Sugar Bowl: Michigan (10-2) vs. Virginia Tech (11-2)
Jan. 3 8:30 p.m. – Superdome, New Orleans, LA
In year one under Brady Hoke, Michigan is back in a BCS Bowl game seeking its first BCS win since 2000. Virginia Tech played in the Orange Bowl last year and was trounced by Stanford, at a game that I was at (thank you free tickets).
The biggest change for Michigan has been the defense under first year coordinator Greg Mattison. Michigan’s defense, with the same personnel I might add, improved from 110th in the nation last year to 18th in the nation now.
Michigan struggled early because Al Borges’ offense didn’t fit what Denard Robinson can do but later in the season against Nebraska and Ohio State, the Michigan staff really opened up the offense to suit Robinson and he has gone back to his 2010 stellar performances. Virginia Tech is a good defense too, but could struggle to contain Robinson. I think Michigan will score its points.
For Virginia Tech to win, it’ll need to score and keep up. Virginia Tech IMG Radio Network analyst Mike Burnop, who I talked to, expects a high scoring game and I feel the same way. As long as Virginia Tech doesn’t turn the ball over, they can go toe to toe with anybody thanks to the maturation of quarterback Logan Thomas and the emergence of DJ Coles as a receiver. The Hokies struggle when they turn the ball over, and Thomas turned it over three times against Clemson in the ACC Championship Game after fixing his turnover problem late in the season.
Pick: Michigan 35, Virginia Tech 21
Discover Orange Bowl: West Virginia (9-3) vs. Clemson (10-3)
Jan. 4 8:30 p.m. on ESPN – Sun Life Stadium, Miami, FL
Clemson is in the Orange Bowl for the first time since 1981 when it won the national title. The way Clemson started the season, some people thought they’d have a shot at the national title this season. I was among those surprised by Clemson’s meteoric rise this year, I saw the talent but thought it would take a year to develop and Clemson would be good in 2012 but Sammy Watkins and Tony Stewart have come in and made huge impacts as true freshman.
For West Virginia, it’s back in a BCS Bowl in Dana Holgorsen’s first year with his offense. Quarterback Geno Smith is 22 yards away from being the first West Virgnia player ever to pass for 4,000 yards. Clemson gives up about 202 yards per game through the air while Smith averages 341.8 yards.
West Virginia’s defense has been shaky at times this season, but lost a lot of pieces from last season. The last four games the Mountaineers have played have been decided by three points or less (three wins, one loss), but Louisville, Rutgers and Syracuse each scored 30+ on this defense. Just judging by that, Clemson has the potential to drop 40. Can West Virginia cover Watkins and slow down Andre Ellington and force pressure on Tajh Boyd. Bruce Irvin has just 7.5 sacks this season, which is disappointing to him and Keith Tandy has just three interceptions this season, half of his six last season.
Clemson’s defense has faded down the stretch losing three of its last four before the ACC Title Game, giving up more than 31 points in each of the three losses and 28 to Wake Forest in the lone win.
West Virginia might not have a run game, but its loaded group of receivers – Tavon Austin, Stedman Bailey, Ivan McCartney, Brad Starks, Tyler Urban, Devon Brown – could be too much for Clemson to cover if they can’t get pressure on Smith.
Speaking of getting pressure, both of these offensive lines give up a lot of sacks.
Pick: West Virginia 27, Clemson 20
AT&T Cotton Bowl: Kansas State (10-2) vs. Arkansas (10-2)
Jan. 6 8 p.m. on FOX – Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, TX
Wait, Kansas State has 10 wins? How did that happen? You can’t say enough about the job that Bill Snyder has done there in Manhattan, KS. Arkansas also has 10 wins and both teams are not in a BCS Bowl. Kansas State was a snub and Arkansas is a consequence of the BCS system.
Both of these teams can score points, averaging over 30 points per game, though they are two completely different styles. Arkansas averaged 445.8 yards per game of offense against the SEC. That is a staggering number. Kansas State averaged 343.4 yards per game in the Big 12 in its ground and pound ball control offense.
The defensive edge clearly belongs to Arkansas. It’ll just be a question of whether Arkansas comes ready to play, will they be motivated? We know Kansas State will be because they’re trying to prove their record is legit. Kansas State has won offensive explosions against Texas Tech and Texas A&M but then scratched and clawed its way to wins over Texas, Missouri and Iowa State. Its defense also made a play against Baylor intercepting Heisman winner Robert Griffin III late to seal the one point victory. Nigel Malone leads the Big 12 with seven interceptions.
But, the Kansas State pass defense gives up 267.3 yards per game, 104th in the nation. Arkansas would like to throw all over that defense with the SEC’s best quarterback Tyler Wilson and his arsenal of weapons – Jarius Wright, Joe Adams, Cobi Hamilton, Chris Gragg, Greg Childs.
Kansas State doesn’t have a lot of superior athletes while Arkansas is loaded with SEC talent and speed. This is clearly a mismatch on paper, but both teams have 10 wins, although Arkansas could have more if it didn’t have to play No. 1 LSU and No. 2 Alabama. If Kansas State shocks the world, I won’t even be surprised. But I don’t see it happening, but I do see a closer game than expected.
Pick: Arkansas 42, Kansas State 34
BBVA Compass Bowl: SMU (7-5) vs. Pittsburgh (6-6)
Jan. 7 1 p.m. on ESPN – Legion Field, Birmingham, AL
SMU almost lost its coach. Pitt did lose its coach. SMU coach June Jones almost left for the Arizona State job and then the news breaks that Pitt head coach Todd Graham was taking the Arizona State job.
Graham departed Pittsburgh by sending a text message to forward to his team that he was leaving. He did not face his team in-person. Players were disgusted by that and made jokes of Graham’s loyalty and commitment. Will the players rally around interim head coach Keith Patterson or fold and not care about playing any more football after what’s happened? Last year, Pitt played under interim coach Phil Bennett and beat Kentucky in this very same bowl game. That said, Pitt expressed that it did not want to be in this bowl game again after playing in Birmingham last year. By becoming bowl eligible in the final week of the season, Pitt didn’t have much of a choice.
Then there’s SMU, who scored 33.7 points per game in its first six and then 17.7 points per game in the final six. Ever since running back Zach Line was lost for the season, the SMU offense disappeared and J.J. McDermott has struggled. McDermott has 16 touchdowns and 16 interceptions on the year, with 11 of those interceptions coming in the last six games.
McDermott still has go-to guys with Cole Beasley and Darius Johnson and I have a feeling that SMU will be more focused than Pitt. Pitt has a big pass rusher in Brandon Lindsey but Pitt struggles to protect its own quarterback Tino Sunseri, giving up 56 sacks this season.
The on paper matchup favors Pitt’s defense that hasn’t given up more than 271 total yards in the last nine games, but Pitt’s offense isn’t the same without Ray Graham and SMU linebackers Taylor Reed and Ja’Gared Davis are two players to watch.
Pick: SMU 27, Pittsburgh 19
GoDaddy.com Bowl: Arkansas State (10-2) vs. Northern Illinois (10-3)
Jan. 8 9 p.m. on ESPN – Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile, AL
Two of my favorite non-AQ quarterbacks are in this game: Northern Illinois’ Chandler Harnish and Arkansas State’s Ryan Aplin. Northern Illinois this season has scored 49, 42, 47, 41, 40, 51, 31, 63, 45 and 41. Arkansas State has topped 35 points five times. These two teams can score, and they both do it with the passing game led by a dual-threat quarterback. Aplin has 3,235 yards passing and 783 rushing. Harnish has 2,942 yards passing and 1,382 rushing. Harnish also has a 26 touchdown passes to five interceptions.
Neither team runs the ball particularly well out of the backfield. These teams are so similar on offense. Arkansas State has three go-to receivers: Dwayne Frampton, Josh Jarboe and Taylor Stockemer. Northern Illinois has Nathan Palmer, Martel Moore and Perez Ashford.
The separating factor may be defense. Northern Illinois plays good defense when it wants to, like shutting out Ohio in the second half of the MAC Championship Game. Beating Toledo 63-60 and giving up 38 points to Ball State and 48 in a loss to Central Michigan are examples of when NIU doesn’t play defense.
Arkansas State plays defense consistently, albeit they face Sun Belt offenses while Northern Illinois faces the powerful MAC offenses that give us MACtion every week. Arkansas State gives up 19 points per game and is in the top 20 nationally in sacks and tackles for loss. Brandon Joiner has 12 sacks. Northern Illinois is 5th nationally in sacks allowed.
Ryan Aplin will be back for Arkansas State next year. For Chandler Harnish, this is his last game. He will go out a winner.
Pick: Northern Illinois 33, Arkansas State 24
Allstate BCS National Championship Game: No. 1 LSU (13-0) vs. No. 2 Alabama (11-1)
Jan. 9 8:30 p.m. on ESPN – Superdome
We’ve already talked about this game once, and LSU won in overtime in Tuscaloosa by a field goal. Need we say more about this game? You know all the stats, you know these are the two best teams and two best defenses. You know about Heisman finalists Trent Richardson and Tyrann Mathieu. Is there anything more than can or needs to be said?
All there is to add is that a touchdown will be scored this time and I’m convinced Alabama’s better than LSU, but the eye test points towards the Tigers and how can they not at this point complete the magical season?
Friday, December 2, 2011
Championship Week Picks
Friday, December 2
MAC Championship Game: Ohio (9-3) vs. Northern Illinois (9-3)
Northern Illinois lost its first MAC game to Central Michigan and then ripped off seven straight wins. Ohio comes in with a five game win streak and beat NIU in 2009, the last time the two teams played. Today, the Huskies still have star quarterback Chandler Harnish, one of my favorite guys, while this is a completely different Ohio offense.
Ohio's new quarterback is Tyler Tettleton, who is a good dual threat and has almost identical statistics with Harnish.
With Harnish's running ability, Northern Illinois 8th in the nation in rushing offense with 255 yard per game. But this Ohio defense is pretty stout against the run with a great linebacking corps led by Noah Keller.
This should be another high-scoring MAC game. NIU averages 40 points per game and Ohio averages 32 points per game. Both teams average more than 460 total yards, which we see a lot in MAC play.
Northern Illinois has five reliable and explosive receivers: Nathan Palmer, Martel Moore, Perez Ashford, Da'Ron Brown and Willie Clark, while Ohio's one go-to guy is LaVon Brazill, but NIU is 91st in the nation in total defense.
I can't pick against Northern Illinois though as they go for the MAC Title and a berth in the GoDaddy.com Bowl.
Pick: Northern illinois 41, Ohio 35
Pac-12 Championship Game: UCLA (6-6) at No. 9 Oregon (10-2)
These two teams didn't meet in the regular season now that the Pac-12 has split into two divisions. The last time they met in 2010, Oregon won 60-13, and that last touchdown UCLA got was in garbage time. Darron Thomas passed for 308 yards and three touchdowns while LaMichael James added 123 yards on the ground.
Thomas and James have both suffered injuries this year, but Oregon could definitely beat UCLA without them. UCLA coach Rick Neuheisel will coach his final game as he is fired, effective after this game. Neuheisel acknowledged UCLA won't be able to stop Oregon so they have to try to keep up. To do that, the Bruins will have to get the ground game going with Jonathan Franklin and try to control time of possession and keep Oregon off the field. Oregon will most certainly stop the run and force Kevin Prince to throw, which he struggles with like all UCLA quarterbacks and Oregon will put the pressure on. The Ducks opened up a 30-point favorite.
Even if UCLA loses this game drops to 6-7 on the season, the NCAA has granted the Bruins a bowl waiver.
Pick: Oregon 55, UCLA 16
Saturday, December 3
Conference USA Championship Game: No. 24 Southern Miss (10-2) at No. 6 Houston (12-0)
Houston has won just one C-USA championship - against Southern Miss. Case Keenum in his 6th year has led the Cougars to an undefeated 12-0 record. Only Southern Miss stands between Houston and a BCS Bowl game (likely the Sugar Bowl). Southern Miss has a great QB of its own in Austin Davis, but Davis has thrown 10 interceptions to Keenum's 3. Southern Miss is in the minus in turnover margins.
Can the #1 offense in the nation and Case Keenum averaging 449 passing yards per game put up the same numbers against Southern Miss's 12th-ranked passing efficiency defense.
Either way, Houston's shown it can play some defense with Marcus McGraw and Sammy Brown, shutting down Tulsa and other high powered offenses.
Pick: Houston 42, Southern Miss 28
SEC Championship Game: No. 14 Georgia (10-2) vs. No. 1 LSU (12-0)
LSU is your national champion. Enough said. Win or lose, LSU should be on its way to the BCS Championship Game, and it's funny saying "win or lose." There is no way LSU can possibly lose to Georgia, especially after getting bulletin board material with Georgia saying they're the better team and have a better defense. When you're playing against the No. 1 team in the nation, you shouldn't motivate them anymore than you have to.
Georgia has had a good year with 10 straight wins after two losses to open the season, but seriously, if Vanderbilt played Georgia's schedule, the Commodores would have 9 wins. To me, Georgia is still one of the most overrated teams in the nation and it will show against a more dominant LSU that hasn't allowed a second half touchdown in the last six games.
Pick: LSU 34, Georgia 10
ACC Championship Game: No. 5 Virginia Tech (11-1) vs. No. 20 Clemson (9-3)
Here's a chance for Virginia Tech to redeem itself for the 20-point loss it suffered at home to Clemson earlier this year for its lone loss. Back then, Clemson was a top ten team and Virginia Tech QB Logan Thomas was figuring himself out. Now, Thomas is one of the nation's hottest QBs and Clemson is free-falling.
Virginia Tech did a nice job of slowing down Andre Ellington and containing Sammy Watkins in the first matchup, which will is still important, but now Ellington is hurt and Watkins is returning from injury and quarterback Tajh Boyd has turned into a turnover machine and has been sacked 11 times in the last two games, too.
Virginia Tech is coming off its best performance with a 38-0 win over Virginia.
David Wilson had 123 yards on the ground the first matchup, if VT plays the same defense, Logan Thomas keeps up his improvements and the Hokies convert third downs, they're going to the Orange Bowl.
Pick: Virginia Tech 28, Clemson 17
Big Ten Championship Game: No. 15 Wisconsin (10-2) vs. No. 13 Michigan State (10-2)
If not for Michigan State's Hail Mary and Ohio State's Hail Mary, Wisconsin could be in the hunt for the national championship game. This isn't the same team that Michigan State was able to go toe-to-toe with in East Lansing. But then again, Michigan State now brings William Gholston back, who was suspended the first time these two teams play, when Wisconsin had 220 rushin guards.
Wisconsin running back Montee Ball needs five touchdowns to tie the single season record while Michigan State looks for a trip to the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1988, while Wisconsin was there last year.
Russell Wilson threw two interceptions against Michigan State and has not thrown one since (three this season). Wisconsin just rolled over Penn State like the Nittany Lions were a JV team. There are still ways to attack Wisconsin's secondary, which Michigan State was able to do last time and Kirk Cousins had the game of his life and he'll have to do it again. This time, I like Wisconsin.
Michigan State gets to the Rose Bowl with a win, probably the Outback Bowl with a loss.
Pick: Wisconsin 30, Michigan State 24
No. 10 Oklahoma (9-2) at No. 3 Oklahoma State (10-1)
This is the de facto Big 12 Championship Game and with a convincing win, Oklahoma State could make a case for the national championship game, but will make the BCS regardless with a win.
Oklahoma has won nine straight in the Bedlam rivalry, including last year's 48-41 thriller.
Oklahoma State's offensive line has been great this season, but Oklahoma is third in the nation with over three sacks per game.
Oklahoma is without Dominique Whaley and Ryan Broyles, but still, Oklahoma State's defense is ranked 107th in the nation, so the No. 2 offense will have to outscore Oklahoma again. Can the defense make a few plays to keep Oklahoma under 40 points?
Pick: Oklahoma 47, Oklahoma State 38
Syracuse (5-6) at Pittsburgh (5-6)
The winner of this game becomes bowl eligible and the other one's season is over. Pittsburgh QB Tino Sunseri was sacked 10 times last week by West Virginia. Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib has taken a beating this season, too.
Pitt's without running backs Ray Graham and Zach Brown. Syracuse has badly underachieved this season as they had a lot of guys coming back from last year's eight win team. The Pittsburgh defense has been playing great and will pull out another win on Senior Day.
Pick: Pittsburgh 24, Syracuse 16
Connecticut (5-6) at Cincinnati (8-3)
Here it is, the game that decides the Big East. If Cincinnati wins, West Virginia wins the Big East. If Cincinnati loses, Louisville wins the Big East. There will probably be four quarterbacks in this game with Cincinnati's Munchie Legaux and Jordan Luallen and UConn's Johnny McEntee and Scott McCummings. UConn put a slugging on Rutgers last week and you can see how well the Huskies can play. Cincinnati certainly has the defensive end, but UConn's defense is pretty good too and there's no Zach Collaros for the Bearcats.
Pick: Cincinnati 23, UConn 20
Iowa State (6-5) at No. 11 Kansas State (9-2)
Kansas State could clinch a Cotton Bowl spot with a win here. The Wildcats are coming off a bye week after the Cyclones just played a physical game against Oklahoma last week. Collin Klein just makes things happen for Kansas State but can he withstand the beating he'll take from Iowa State linebackers AJ Klein and Jake Knott?
Pick: Kansas State 30, Iowa State 17
Wyoming (7-4) at Colorado State (3-8)
Colorado State has been really disappointing on its seven game losing streak, including losses to San Jose State, UTEP and UNLV.
Wyoming should have a field day with running back Alvester Alexander and true freshman dual threat Brett Smith. But then again, Colorado State sophomore running back Chris Nwoke, with 1,000 yards already, is going against Wyoming's 114th ranked rush defense.
I don't think Nwoke will be enough and Wyoming will control the ball with Smith. Colorado State's 91st ranked offense has been dismal.
Pick: Wyoming 33, Colorado State 17
UNLV (2-9) at No. 18 TCU (9-2)
One team is TCU, the other is UNLV.
Pick: TCU 45, UNLV 10
No. 22 Texas (7-4) at No. 17 Baylor (8-3)
The Texas defense has been third best in the nation the second half of the season, behind only LSU and Alabama. Texas has given up only 249 total yards per game during that span. The Texas defense is focused on slowing down Baylor's explosive offense and Heisman candidate quarterback Robert Griffin. To quote the Texas defense: "No one wins the Heisman on us."
Texas has slowed down every great offense it has faced this season, except Oklahoma, which was Manny Diaz's first experience against a high-powered offense and he was taken aback but vastly improved since then.
For Texas, this game is the difference between a berth to the Insight Bowl or the Pinstripe Bowl in cold weather. The Longhorns will be motivated and will hold Griffin to under 250 total yards. Despite the offense, Baylor is still 114th in the nation in total defense and 102nd in rushing defense. The last time Texas faced a rush defense this bad (Texas Tech), the Horns ran for 393 yards.
Case McCoy is listed as the only starter at QB for Texas for the first time this season after a good drive to win over Texas A&M. McCoy has yet to throw an interception and serves as a good game manager who can make plays.
Texas cornerback Carrington Byndom will be matched up with Baylor's Kendall Wright and Byndom has shut down top-NFL prospect receivers in Ryan Broyles, Justin Blackmon and Jeff Fuller so far this season.
Pick: Texas 34, Baylor 31
Utah State (6-5) at New Mexico State (4-8)
New Mexico State is risking a postseason ban if it can't draw the required attendance for this game. The Aggies are about a 1,000 tickets short to meet the FBS-mandated attendance requirement. The Utah State Aggies are headed to the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl behind the play of true freshman quarterback Chuckie Keeton.
Pick: Utah State 35, New Mexico State 10
Louisiana-Monroe (3-8)at Florida Atlantic (1-10)
FAU needs to send Howard Schnellenberger out with a win as this will be his last career game as a head coach. The ULM Warhawks have different plans with receivers Brent Leonard and Tavarese Maye. Florida Atlantic is the nation's worst offense and hasn't had any decent quarterback play all year to replace Jeff Van Camp.
Pick: ULM 28, FAU 13
Middle Tennessee (2-9) at North Texas (4-7)
Can the Blue Raiders upset the Mean Green to end the season? I think this matchup favors Middle Tennessee and quarterback Logan Kilgore. Neither team plays defense with North Texas ranked 105th in the nation and Mid. Tenn ranked 101st. If anything though, North Texas has one of the best punting games in the country.
Pick: Middle Tennessee 31, North Texas 27
Idaho (2-9) at Nevada (6-5)
Nevada has been a completely different offense once Cody Fajardo took over at QB as he can do everything Colin Kaepernick could do and may have saved Chris Ault's job. For Idaho, first year starter Brian Reader has had a disappointing senior season though the potential was there.
Pick: Nevada 49, Idaho 24
Troy (3-8) at Arkansas State (9-2)
Arkansas State could be the best defense in the Sun Belt over FIU this season. The Red Wolves are 9-2 and Sun Belt champions behind the play of QB Ryan Aplin, but also that relentless defense that's quick to the ball and averages 8 tackles for loss per game. Arkansas State has been stingy in both run and pass defense and Troy has struggled running the ball all year. The Trojans rank 116th in the nation in rushing and are one dimensional in the passing game.
Pick: Arkansas State 31, Troy 14
New Mexico (1-10) at No. 7 Boise State (10-1)
Kellen Moore's last game on the blue turf as Boise State's record-setting quarterback. Boise State, despite finishing 11-1 (after this win) probably won't be in a BCS game, but this is the Broncos' last chance to make an impression for style points and maybe, just maybe be a BCS at-large if Michigan were to not become eligible for the BCS and Oklahoma State were to beat Oklahoma and especially if Houston loses.
Pick: Boise State 47, New Mexico 7
BYU (8-3) at Hawaii (6-6)
Hawaii is currently 6-6 and needs a win to become bowl eligible while a point shaving scandal is being investigated on the islands. BYU should have Riley Nelson back for this game, which gives them a clear advantage over Hawaii. Unless BYU is jet lagged, the Cougars should be able to control this game.
Pick: BYU 34, Hawaii 17
Fresno State (4-8) at San Diego State (7-4)
Could San Diego State miss a bowl game? It's possible as the Mountain West only has four bowl slots for its five bowl eligible teams so the Aztecs have one last chance against Fresno State to make a statement to bowl committees in Ryan Lindley's last home game after a solid career.
Pick: San Diego State 42, Fresno State 24
Bowl Scenarios:
-If West Virginia AND Cincinnati win, West Virginia will win the Big East and likely go to the Orange Bowl.
-If Cincinnati loses, Louisville will win the Big East and likely go to the Orange Bowl
-If Cincinnati wins AND West Virginia loses, Cincinnati wins the Big East and will likely go to the Orange Bowl.
-If UCLA beats Oregon, UCLA will go to the Rose Bowl and Oregon will likely miss out on the BCS completely and head to the Alamo Bowl.
-If Houston wins, the Cougars will go to a BCS bowl game, likely the Sugar Bowl.
-If Georgia wins, LSU will likely drop to No. 2 in the BCS Standings with Alabama moving up to No. 1, which means LSU and Alabama will still play for the national title AND Georgia will play in the Sugar Bowl. The SEC will have three teams in the BCS. If LSU drops to No. 3, then it will be left out of the BCS Completely and likely head to the Capital One Bowl.
-If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State, Oklahoma will go to the FIesta Bowl while Oklahoma State will likely be left out of the BCS (unless Michigan fails to make the Top 14) and go to the Cotton Bowl.
-If Virginia Tech wins, it will go to the Orange Bowl and Clemson will likely go to the Champs Sports Bowl.
-If Clemson wins, it will go to the Orange Bowl and Virginia Tech will likely go to the Chick-fil-A Bowl.
-If Wisconsin wins, it will go to the Rose Bowl and Michigan State will likely go to the Outback Bowl.
-If Michigan State wins, it will go to the Rose Bowl and Wisconsin will likely go to the Capital One Bowl.
-If Pittsburgh beats Syracuse, the Panthers will become bowl eligible and be a candidate for the BBVA Compass Bowl.
-If Kansas State wins and Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, Kansas State will likely go to the Cotton Bowl. If Kansas State loses, the Wildcats will likely go to the Alamo Bowl.
-If No. 18 TCU beats UNLV and moves into the Top 16 of the BCS Standings AND ahead of the Big East Champion, it will receive an automatic BCS-bowl bid.
-If Texas beats Baylor, Texas will likely go to the Insight Bowl and Baylor will likely go to the Holiday Bowl.
-If Baylor beats Texas, Baylor will likely go to the Insight Bowl and Texas will likely go to the Holiday Bowl or Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas.
-If Hawaii beats BYU, Hawaii will go to the Hawaii Bowl. If Hawaii loses, it will not be bowl eligible.
MORE BOWL SCENARIOS: conference by conference, click here
MAC Championship Game: Ohio (9-3) vs. Northern Illinois (9-3)
Northern Illinois lost its first MAC game to Central Michigan and then ripped off seven straight wins. Ohio comes in with a five game win streak and beat NIU in 2009, the last time the two teams played. Today, the Huskies still have star quarterback Chandler Harnish, one of my favorite guys, while this is a completely different Ohio offense.
Ohio's new quarterback is Tyler Tettleton, who is a good dual threat and has almost identical statistics with Harnish.
With Harnish's running ability, Northern Illinois 8th in the nation in rushing offense with 255 yard per game. But this Ohio defense is pretty stout against the run with a great linebacking corps led by Noah Keller.
This should be another high-scoring MAC game. NIU averages 40 points per game and Ohio averages 32 points per game. Both teams average more than 460 total yards, which we see a lot in MAC play.
Northern Illinois has five reliable and explosive receivers: Nathan Palmer, Martel Moore, Perez Ashford, Da'Ron Brown and Willie Clark, while Ohio's one go-to guy is LaVon Brazill, but NIU is 91st in the nation in total defense.
I can't pick against Northern Illinois though as they go for the MAC Title and a berth in the GoDaddy.com Bowl.
Pick: Northern illinois 41, Ohio 35
Pac-12 Championship Game: UCLA (6-6) at No. 9 Oregon (10-2)
These two teams didn't meet in the regular season now that the Pac-12 has split into two divisions. The last time they met in 2010, Oregon won 60-13, and that last touchdown UCLA got was in garbage time. Darron Thomas passed for 308 yards and three touchdowns while LaMichael James added 123 yards on the ground.
Thomas and James have both suffered injuries this year, but Oregon could definitely beat UCLA without them. UCLA coach Rick Neuheisel will coach his final game as he is fired, effective after this game. Neuheisel acknowledged UCLA won't be able to stop Oregon so they have to try to keep up. To do that, the Bruins will have to get the ground game going with Jonathan Franklin and try to control time of possession and keep Oregon off the field. Oregon will most certainly stop the run and force Kevin Prince to throw, which he struggles with like all UCLA quarterbacks and Oregon will put the pressure on. The Ducks opened up a 30-point favorite.
Even if UCLA loses this game drops to 6-7 on the season, the NCAA has granted the Bruins a bowl waiver.
Pick: Oregon 55, UCLA 16
Saturday, December 3
Conference USA Championship Game: No. 24 Southern Miss (10-2) at No. 6 Houston (12-0)
Houston has won just one C-USA championship - against Southern Miss. Case Keenum in his 6th year has led the Cougars to an undefeated 12-0 record. Only Southern Miss stands between Houston and a BCS Bowl game (likely the Sugar Bowl). Southern Miss has a great QB of its own in Austin Davis, but Davis has thrown 10 interceptions to Keenum's 3. Southern Miss is in the minus in turnover margins.
Can the #1 offense in the nation and Case Keenum averaging 449 passing yards per game put up the same numbers against Southern Miss's 12th-ranked passing efficiency defense.
Either way, Houston's shown it can play some defense with Marcus McGraw and Sammy Brown, shutting down Tulsa and other high powered offenses.
Pick: Houston 42, Southern Miss 28
SEC Championship Game: No. 14 Georgia (10-2) vs. No. 1 LSU (12-0)
LSU is your national champion. Enough said. Win or lose, LSU should be on its way to the BCS Championship Game, and it's funny saying "win or lose." There is no way LSU can possibly lose to Georgia, especially after getting bulletin board material with Georgia saying they're the better team and have a better defense. When you're playing against the No. 1 team in the nation, you shouldn't motivate them anymore than you have to.
Georgia has had a good year with 10 straight wins after two losses to open the season, but seriously, if Vanderbilt played Georgia's schedule, the Commodores would have 9 wins. To me, Georgia is still one of the most overrated teams in the nation and it will show against a more dominant LSU that hasn't allowed a second half touchdown in the last six games.
Pick: LSU 34, Georgia 10
ACC Championship Game: No. 5 Virginia Tech (11-1) vs. No. 20 Clemson (9-3)
Here's a chance for Virginia Tech to redeem itself for the 20-point loss it suffered at home to Clemson earlier this year for its lone loss. Back then, Clemson was a top ten team and Virginia Tech QB Logan Thomas was figuring himself out. Now, Thomas is one of the nation's hottest QBs and Clemson is free-falling.
Virginia Tech did a nice job of slowing down Andre Ellington and containing Sammy Watkins in the first matchup, which will is still important, but now Ellington is hurt and Watkins is returning from injury and quarterback Tajh Boyd has turned into a turnover machine and has been sacked 11 times in the last two games, too.
Virginia Tech is coming off its best performance with a 38-0 win over Virginia.
David Wilson had 123 yards on the ground the first matchup, if VT plays the same defense, Logan Thomas keeps up his improvements and the Hokies convert third downs, they're going to the Orange Bowl.
Pick: Virginia Tech 28, Clemson 17
Big Ten Championship Game: No. 15 Wisconsin (10-2) vs. No. 13 Michigan State (10-2)
If not for Michigan State's Hail Mary and Ohio State's Hail Mary, Wisconsin could be in the hunt for the national championship game. This isn't the same team that Michigan State was able to go toe-to-toe with in East Lansing. But then again, Michigan State now brings William Gholston back, who was suspended the first time these two teams play, when Wisconsin had 220 rushin guards.
Wisconsin running back Montee Ball needs five touchdowns to tie the single season record while Michigan State looks for a trip to the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1988, while Wisconsin was there last year.
Russell Wilson threw two interceptions against Michigan State and has not thrown one since (three this season). Wisconsin just rolled over Penn State like the Nittany Lions were a JV team. There are still ways to attack Wisconsin's secondary, which Michigan State was able to do last time and Kirk Cousins had the game of his life and he'll have to do it again. This time, I like Wisconsin.
Michigan State gets to the Rose Bowl with a win, probably the Outback Bowl with a loss.
Pick: Wisconsin 30, Michigan State 24
No. 10 Oklahoma (9-2) at No. 3 Oklahoma State (10-1)
This is the de facto Big 12 Championship Game and with a convincing win, Oklahoma State could make a case for the national championship game, but will make the BCS regardless with a win.
Oklahoma has won nine straight in the Bedlam rivalry, including last year's 48-41 thriller.
Oklahoma State's offensive line has been great this season, but Oklahoma is third in the nation with over three sacks per game.
Oklahoma is without Dominique Whaley and Ryan Broyles, but still, Oklahoma State's defense is ranked 107th in the nation, so the No. 2 offense will have to outscore Oklahoma again. Can the defense make a few plays to keep Oklahoma under 40 points?
Pick: Oklahoma 47, Oklahoma State 38
Syracuse (5-6) at Pittsburgh (5-6)
The winner of this game becomes bowl eligible and the other one's season is over. Pittsburgh QB Tino Sunseri was sacked 10 times last week by West Virginia. Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib has taken a beating this season, too.
Pitt's without running backs Ray Graham and Zach Brown. Syracuse has badly underachieved this season as they had a lot of guys coming back from last year's eight win team. The Pittsburgh defense has been playing great and will pull out another win on Senior Day.
Pick: Pittsburgh 24, Syracuse 16
Connecticut (5-6) at Cincinnati (8-3)
Here it is, the game that decides the Big East. If Cincinnati wins, West Virginia wins the Big East. If Cincinnati loses, Louisville wins the Big East. There will probably be four quarterbacks in this game with Cincinnati's Munchie Legaux and Jordan Luallen and UConn's Johnny McEntee and Scott McCummings. UConn put a slugging on Rutgers last week and you can see how well the Huskies can play. Cincinnati certainly has the defensive end, but UConn's defense is pretty good too and there's no Zach Collaros for the Bearcats.
Pick: Cincinnati 23, UConn 20
Iowa State (6-5) at No. 11 Kansas State (9-2)
Kansas State could clinch a Cotton Bowl spot with a win here. The Wildcats are coming off a bye week after the Cyclones just played a physical game against Oklahoma last week. Collin Klein just makes things happen for Kansas State but can he withstand the beating he'll take from Iowa State linebackers AJ Klein and Jake Knott?
Pick: Kansas State 30, Iowa State 17
Wyoming (7-4) at Colorado State (3-8)
Colorado State has been really disappointing on its seven game losing streak, including losses to San Jose State, UTEP and UNLV.
Wyoming should have a field day with running back Alvester Alexander and true freshman dual threat Brett Smith. But then again, Colorado State sophomore running back Chris Nwoke, with 1,000 yards already, is going against Wyoming's 114th ranked rush defense.
I don't think Nwoke will be enough and Wyoming will control the ball with Smith. Colorado State's 91st ranked offense has been dismal.
Pick: Wyoming 33, Colorado State 17
UNLV (2-9) at No. 18 TCU (9-2)
One team is TCU, the other is UNLV.
Pick: TCU 45, UNLV 10
No. 22 Texas (7-4) at No. 17 Baylor (8-3)
The Texas defense has been third best in the nation the second half of the season, behind only LSU and Alabama. Texas has given up only 249 total yards per game during that span. The Texas defense is focused on slowing down Baylor's explosive offense and Heisman candidate quarterback Robert Griffin. To quote the Texas defense: "No one wins the Heisman on us."
Texas has slowed down every great offense it has faced this season, except Oklahoma, which was Manny Diaz's first experience against a high-powered offense and he was taken aback but vastly improved since then.
For Texas, this game is the difference between a berth to the Insight Bowl or the Pinstripe Bowl in cold weather. The Longhorns will be motivated and will hold Griffin to under 250 total yards. Despite the offense, Baylor is still 114th in the nation in total defense and 102nd in rushing defense. The last time Texas faced a rush defense this bad (Texas Tech), the Horns ran for 393 yards.
Case McCoy is listed as the only starter at QB for Texas for the first time this season after a good drive to win over Texas A&M. McCoy has yet to throw an interception and serves as a good game manager who can make plays.
Texas cornerback Carrington Byndom will be matched up with Baylor's Kendall Wright and Byndom has shut down top-NFL prospect receivers in Ryan Broyles, Justin Blackmon and Jeff Fuller so far this season.
Pick: Texas 34, Baylor 31
Utah State (6-5) at New Mexico State (4-8)
New Mexico State is risking a postseason ban if it can't draw the required attendance for this game. The Aggies are about a 1,000 tickets short to meet the FBS-mandated attendance requirement. The Utah State Aggies are headed to the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl behind the play of true freshman quarterback Chuckie Keeton.
Pick: Utah State 35, New Mexico State 10
Louisiana-Monroe (3-8)at Florida Atlantic (1-10)
FAU needs to send Howard Schnellenberger out with a win as this will be his last career game as a head coach. The ULM Warhawks have different plans with receivers Brent Leonard and Tavarese Maye. Florida Atlantic is the nation's worst offense and hasn't had any decent quarterback play all year to replace Jeff Van Camp.
Pick: ULM 28, FAU 13
Middle Tennessee (2-9) at North Texas (4-7)
Can the Blue Raiders upset the Mean Green to end the season? I think this matchup favors Middle Tennessee and quarterback Logan Kilgore. Neither team plays defense with North Texas ranked 105th in the nation and Mid. Tenn ranked 101st. If anything though, North Texas has one of the best punting games in the country.
Pick: Middle Tennessee 31, North Texas 27
Idaho (2-9) at Nevada (6-5)
Nevada has been a completely different offense once Cody Fajardo took over at QB as he can do everything Colin Kaepernick could do and may have saved Chris Ault's job. For Idaho, first year starter Brian Reader has had a disappointing senior season though the potential was there.
Pick: Nevada 49, Idaho 24
Troy (3-8) at Arkansas State (9-2)
Arkansas State could be the best defense in the Sun Belt over FIU this season. The Red Wolves are 9-2 and Sun Belt champions behind the play of QB Ryan Aplin, but also that relentless defense that's quick to the ball and averages 8 tackles for loss per game. Arkansas State has been stingy in both run and pass defense and Troy has struggled running the ball all year. The Trojans rank 116th in the nation in rushing and are one dimensional in the passing game.
Pick: Arkansas State 31, Troy 14
New Mexico (1-10) at No. 7 Boise State (10-1)
Kellen Moore's last game on the blue turf as Boise State's record-setting quarterback. Boise State, despite finishing 11-1 (after this win) probably won't be in a BCS game, but this is the Broncos' last chance to make an impression for style points and maybe, just maybe be a BCS at-large if Michigan were to not become eligible for the BCS and Oklahoma State were to beat Oklahoma and especially if Houston loses.
Pick: Boise State 47, New Mexico 7
BYU (8-3) at Hawaii (6-6)
Hawaii is currently 6-6 and needs a win to become bowl eligible while a point shaving scandal is being investigated on the islands. BYU should have Riley Nelson back for this game, which gives them a clear advantage over Hawaii. Unless BYU is jet lagged, the Cougars should be able to control this game.
Pick: BYU 34, Hawaii 17
Fresno State (4-8) at San Diego State (7-4)
Could San Diego State miss a bowl game? It's possible as the Mountain West only has four bowl slots for its five bowl eligible teams so the Aztecs have one last chance against Fresno State to make a statement to bowl committees in Ryan Lindley's last home game after a solid career.
Pick: San Diego State 42, Fresno State 24
Bowl Scenarios:
-If West Virginia AND Cincinnati win, West Virginia will win the Big East and likely go to the Orange Bowl.
-If Cincinnati loses, Louisville will win the Big East and likely go to the Orange Bowl
-If Cincinnati wins AND West Virginia loses, Cincinnati wins the Big East and will likely go to the Orange Bowl.
-If UCLA beats Oregon, UCLA will go to the Rose Bowl and Oregon will likely miss out on the BCS completely and head to the Alamo Bowl.
-If Houston wins, the Cougars will go to a BCS bowl game, likely the Sugar Bowl.
-If Georgia wins, LSU will likely drop to No. 2 in the BCS Standings with Alabama moving up to No. 1, which means LSU and Alabama will still play for the national title AND Georgia will play in the Sugar Bowl. The SEC will have three teams in the BCS. If LSU drops to No. 3, then it will be left out of the BCS Completely and likely head to the Capital One Bowl.
-If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State, Oklahoma will go to the FIesta Bowl while Oklahoma State will likely be left out of the BCS (unless Michigan fails to make the Top 14) and go to the Cotton Bowl.
-If Virginia Tech wins, it will go to the Orange Bowl and Clemson will likely go to the Champs Sports Bowl.
-If Clemson wins, it will go to the Orange Bowl and Virginia Tech will likely go to the Chick-fil-A Bowl.
-If Wisconsin wins, it will go to the Rose Bowl and Michigan State will likely go to the Outback Bowl.
-If Michigan State wins, it will go to the Rose Bowl and Wisconsin will likely go to the Capital One Bowl.
-If Pittsburgh beats Syracuse, the Panthers will become bowl eligible and be a candidate for the BBVA Compass Bowl.
-If Kansas State wins and Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, Kansas State will likely go to the Cotton Bowl. If Kansas State loses, the Wildcats will likely go to the Alamo Bowl.
-If No. 18 TCU beats UNLV and moves into the Top 16 of the BCS Standings AND ahead of the Big East Champion, it will receive an automatic BCS-bowl bid.
-If Texas beats Baylor, Texas will likely go to the Insight Bowl and Baylor will likely go to the Holiday Bowl.
-If Baylor beats Texas, Baylor will likely go to the Insight Bowl and Texas will likely go to the Holiday Bowl or Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas.
-If Hawaii beats BYU, Hawaii will go to the Hawaii Bowl. If Hawaii loses, it will not be bowl eligible.
MORE BOWL SCENARIOS: conference by conference, click here
Thursday, December 1, 2011
WVU-USF Pick Dec. 1
Thursday, December 1
No. 23 West Virginia at South Florida
A lot of people thought preseason that the Big East championship would come down to this final game between these two teams. Well, they were close. This game will be part of determining the Big East title. If West Virginia wins and Cincinnati beats Connecticut, West Virginia will likely win the Big East by virtue of a tiebreaker decided by the BCS Standings.
However, with a West Virginia loss tonight, CIncinnati has a chance to clinch the Big East with a win Saturday, while South Florida will become bowl eligible.
West Virginia has not beaten USF in Tampa since 2005, but this time there's no BJ Daniels as he's still hurt and Bobby Eveld (0-2 as starter this year) will start for the Bulls.
South Florida's pass defense is 83rd in the nation while West Virginia's new passing offense under Dana Holgorsen is 6th in the nation with 351 yards per game with a star cast of receivers led by Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey.
The matchup The matchup that favors South Florida is its defense against West Virginia's offensive line that has struggled to protect quarterback Geno Smith all season. USF is No. 2 in the nation in both sacks and tackles for loss while West Virginia allows almost three sacks per game and ranks 85th in that category.
South Florida coach Skip Holtz's name is surfacing for some other jobs around the country, notably North Carolina, but with a bowl game on the line, this could be it for his seniors and they should play hard. However, I expect a big game from Geno Smith against the USF secondary and for West Virginia to win a close one.
West Virginia's defense will be able to get pressure on Eveld who has one touchdown and four interceptions this season.
Pick: West Virginia 27, South Florida 20
Bowl Scenarios:
-If West Virginia AND Cincinnati win, West Virginia will win the Big East and likely go to the Orange Bowl.
-If Cincinnati loses, Louisville will win the Big East and likely go to the Orange Bowl
-If Cincinnati wins AND West Virginia loses, Cincinnati wins the Big East and will likely go to the Orange Bowl.
-If UCLA beats Oregon, UCLA will go to the Rose Bowl and Oregon will likely miss out on the BCS completely and head to the Alamo Bowl.
-If Houston wins, the Cougars will go to a BCS bowl game, likely the Sugar Bowl.
-If Georgia wins, LSU will likely drop to No. 2 in the BCS Standings with Alabama moving up to No. 1, which means LSU and Alabama will still play for the national title AND Georgia will play in the Sugar Bowl. The SEC will have three teams in the BCS. If LSU drops to No. 3, then it will be left out of the BCS Completely and likely head to the Capital One Bowl.
-If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State, Oklahoma will go to the FIesta Bowl while Oklahoma State will likely be left out of the BCS (unless Michigan fails to make the Top 14) and go to the Cotton Bowl.
-If Virginia Tech wins, it will go to the Orange Bowl and Clemson will likely go to the Champs Sports Bowl.
-If Clemson wins, it will go to the Orange Bowl and Virginia Tech will likely go to the Chick-fil-A Bowl.
-If Wisconsin wins, it will go to the Rose Bowl and Michigan State will likely go to the Outback Bowl.
-If Michigan State wins, it will go to the Rose Bowl and Wisconsin will likely go to the Capital One Bowl.
-If Pittsburgh beats Syracuse, the Panthers will become bowl eligible and be a candidate for the BBVA Compass Bowl.
-If Kansas State wins and Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, Kansas State will likely go to the Cotton Bowl. If Kansas State loses, the Wildcats will likely go to the Alamo Bowl.
-If No. 18 TCU beats UNLV and moves into the Top 16 of the BCS Standings AND ahead of the Big East Champion, it will receive an automatic BCS-bowl bid.
-If Texas beats Baylor, Texas will likely go to the Insight Bowl and Baylor will likely go to the Holiday Bowl.
-If Baylor beats Texas, Baylor will likely go to the Insight Bowl and Texas will likely go to the Holiday Bowl or Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas.
-If Hawaii beats BYU, Hawaii will go to the Hawaii Bowl. If Hawaii loses, it will not be bowl eligible.
No. 23 West Virginia at South Florida
A lot of people thought preseason that the Big East championship would come down to this final game between these two teams. Well, they were close. This game will be part of determining the Big East title. If West Virginia wins and Cincinnati beats Connecticut, West Virginia will likely win the Big East by virtue of a tiebreaker decided by the BCS Standings.
However, with a West Virginia loss tonight, CIncinnati has a chance to clinch the Big East with a win Saturday, while South Florida will become bowl eligible.
West Virginia has not beaten USF in Tampa since 2005, but this time there's no BJ Daniels as he's still hurt and Bobby Eveld (0-2 as starter this year) will start for the Bulls.
South Florida's pass defense is 83rd in the nation while West Virginia's new passing offense under Dana Holgorsen is 6th in the nation with 351 yards per game with a star cast of receivers led by Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey.
The matchup The matchup that favors South Florida is its defense against West Virginia's offensive line that has struggled to protect quarterback Geno Smith all season. USF is No. 2 in the nation in both sacks and tackles for loss while West Virginia allows almost three sacks per game and ranks 85th in that category.
South Florida coach Skip Holtz's name is surfacing for some other jobs around the country, notably North Carolina, but with a bowl game on the line, this could be it for his seniors and they should play hard. However, I expect a big game from Geno Smith against the USF secondary and for West Virginia to win a close one.
West Virginia's defense will be able to get pressure on Eveld who has one touchdown and four interceptions this season.
Pick: West Virginia 27, South Florida 20
Bowl Scenarios:
-If West Virginia AND Cincinnati win, West Virginia will win the Big East and likely go to the Orange Bowl.
-If Cincinnati loses, Louisville will win the Big East and likely go to the Orange Bowl
-If Cincinnati wins AND West Virginia loses, Cincinnati wins the Big East and will likely go to the Orange Bowl.
-If UCLA beats Oregon, UCLA will go to the Rose Bowl and Oregon will likely miss out on the BCS completely and head to the Alamo Bowl.
-If Houston wins, the Cougars will go to a BCS bowl game, likely the Sugar Bowl.
-If Georgia wins, LSU will likely drop to No. 2 in the BCS Standings with Alabama moving up to No. 1, which means LSU and Alabama will still play for the national title AND Georgia will play in the Sugar Bowl. The SEC will have three teams in the BCS. If LSU drops to No. 3, then it will be left out of the BCS Completely and likely head to the Capital One Bowl.
-If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State, Oklahoma will go to the FIesta Bowl while Oklahoma State will likely be left out of the BCS (unless Michigan fails to make the Top 14) and go to the Cotton Bowl.
-If Virginia Tech wins, it will go to the Orange Bowl and Clemson will likely go to the Champs Sports Bowl.
-If Clemson wins, it will go to the Orange Bowl and Virginia Tech will likely go to the Chick-fil-A Bowl.
-If Wisconsin wins, it will go to the Rose Bowl and Michigan State will likely go to the Outback Bowl.
-If Michigan State wins, it will go to the Rose Bowl and Wisconsin will likely go to the Capital One Bowl.
-If Pittsburgh beats Syracuse, the Panthers will become bowl eligible and be a candidate for the BBVA Compass Bowl.
-If Kansas State wins and Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, Kansas State will likely go to the Cotton Bowl. If Kansas State loses, the Wildcats will likely go to the Alamo Bowl.
-If No. 18 TCU beats UNLV and moves into the Top 16 of the BCS Standings AND ahead of the Big East Champion, it will receive an automatic BCS-bowl bid.
-If Texas beats Baylor, Texas will likely go to the Insight Bowl and Baylor will likely go to the Holiday Bowl.
-If Baylor beats Texas, Baylor will likely go to the Insight Bowl and Texas will likely go to the Holiday Bowl or Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas.
-If Hawaii beats BYU, Hawaii will go to the Hawaii Bowl. If Hawaii loses, it will not be bowl eligible.
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
Week 13
Friday, November 25
Northern Illinois over Eastern Michigan 56-21
-One of my favorite guys, Chandler Harnish and his group of stud receivers will be too much.
-Northern Illinois clinches the MAC West with a win.
Result: NIU 18, EMU 12
South Florida over Louisville, 24-21
-South Florida has Louisville and West Virginia left on the schedule and needs one win to be bowl eligible.
-Charlie Strong's had some bad losses, but also some really good wins for Louisville.
-BJ Daniels' experience over Teddy Bridgewater will get the win.
Result: Lville 34, USF 24
No. 8 Houston over Tulsa, 47-40
-Can Houston stop Tulsa's offense?
-Tulsa has three losses this season - to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Boise State
-I expect a shootout, but every time I do, it ends up being low-scoring.
-Either way, Houston's defense cannot slow down the nation's better offenses.
Result: Houston 48, Tulsa 16
No. 21 Nebraska over Iowa, 27-24
-Iowa's got the underrated offense that can put up points. Marcus Coker will have to be a big factor on the ground.
-Nebraska's just got blown out by Michigan and fell out of a lot of individual ballots in the polls. They have something to prove.
Result: Nebraska 20, Iowa 7
Temple over Kent State, 35-14
-Temple is 2-1 since sophomore Chris Coyer has taken over at QB, but he has yet to throw an interception.
-Kent State overcame its putrid offense to go on a 4-game win streak. The Golden Flashes become bowl eligible with a win, but likely won't make a bowl game anyway.
-Temple is trying to ensure it gets into a bowl game.
Result: Temple 34, Kent State 16
Bowling Green over Buffalo, 37-27
-Bowling Green led by QB Matt Schilz took Ohio to the brink last week.
-Buffalo has struggled offensively, needing Chazz Anderson's arm and legs to win three games.
Result: Bowling Green 42, Buffalo 28
Western Michigan over Akron, 34-10
-Akron's one win is against VMI so the Zips will again go winless against FBS teams.
-Western Michigan QB Alex Carder is one of the most underrated QBs in the nation. The bowl-eligible Broncos can pick up their 7th win of the season and fight for a spot in the postseason.
Result: Western Michigan 68, Akron 19
Toledo over Ball State, 38-13
-Ball State really surprised me last week almost beating Northern Illinois thanks to two Huskies fumbles.
-Toledo is the best offensive team in the MAC. No way they let up now against Ball State.
-With a win and a Northern Illinois loss, Toledo wins the MAC West.
Result: Toledo 45, Ball State 28
No. 1 LSU over No. 3 Arkansas, 26-21
-This game obviously has huge BCS implications. For Arkansas to get into a BCS Bowl game, it's national championship or nothing. With a win, Arkansas can possibly (but not likely?) move into the No. 2 spot of the BCS, which would send Alabama to SEC Championship Game, and then if Alabama loses to Georgia, Arkansas could move to No. 1 with LSU at No. 2 for the national championship. There is no scenario that I can think of where Arkansas makes a BCS Bowl other than the championship game because if Georgia wins the SEC, they go to the Sugar Bowl and gives the BCS limit of three teams.
-LSU struggled slightly with West Virginia and its passing game and receivers. So, Arkansas' offense with receivers Greg Childs, Jarius Wright, Cobi Hamilton, Joe Adams and tight end Chris Gragg is better than West Virginia's group of Tavon Austin, Stedman Bailey, Ivan McCartney and Tyler Urban. Arkansas also has the running game to complement.
-Last year Arkansas ran the ball 47 times with Knile Davis. This year, no Davis, but a complement of backs with Ronnie Wingo, Dennis Johnson and Broderick Green.
-Arkansas defense gives up a lot of rushing yards, and LSU can pound the rock with Spencer Ware and Michael Ford.
-Razorbacks also struggled on the road with Alabama, Vanderbilt and Ole Miss.
-Arkansas has had trouble all year protecting QB Tyler Wilson, with four new starting offensive linemen this year. LSU has the best pass rush in the SEC and will get to Wilson. Wilson does a very nice job of standing firm and delivering the ball though.
-Arkansas punt returner, Joe Adams, has three punts returned for touchdowns this season, including a 61-yarder last week where he evaded eight tackles against Mississippi State. LSU punter Brad Wing has allowed the fewest punt return yards in the nation.
Result: LSU 41, Arkansas 17
Utah over Colorado, 28-21
-Utah started the season off shaky and looked like they couldn't compete in the Pac-12 with the big boys, but now with a win here against 2-10 Colorado, the Utes will be in a three-way for the Pac-12 South Division if UCLA loses to USC.
Result: Colorado 17, Utah 14
Miami over Boston College, 24-17
-Miami announced they will forgo a bowl game this year due to the Nevin Shapiro scandal, which means this is Miami's bowl game against Boston College. For the seniors, it will be the last time they ever suit up.
Result: Boston College 24, Miami 17
West Virginia over Pittsburgh, 31-24
-Could this be the last Backyard Brawl in a few years? One of college football's greatest rivalries may be coming to an end as Pitt is scheduled to move to the ACC for the 2014 season and West Virginia is looking to move to the Big 12 next season.
-The game is in Morgantown and with this win, and the Big East tiebreaker rules, West Virginia likely clinches a BCS Bowl-berth.
-Pitt can put up points, but West Virginia will be too much. Pitt doesn't have the proper personnel to defend a spread, but it's a rivalry game so anything can happen and the Panthers will keep it close.
Result: West Virginia 21, Pittsburgh 20
Central Florida over UTEP, 30-17
-With the loss last week to East Carolina, UCF has nothing left to play for except pride as they won't be bowl eligible.
-UTEP must get this win to be bowl eligible.
-Central Florida can play the role of spoiler, which they did so well last year by beating East Carolina, Houston and SMU.
Result: Central Florida 31, UTEP 14
Arizona State over California, 28-7
-Arizona State isn't completely out of the Big 12 South picture yet and need to win to stay in it.
-ASU is one of the nation's most underachieving teams because I believe they have a Top-15 roster.
-The Sun Devils have lost three straight games to UCLA, Washington State and Arizona when it would have taken just one win to clinch the division.
-Cal is a talented team, but Arizona State's defense needs to come out dominant.
Result: California 47, Arizona State 38
Saturday, November 26
No. 9 Oklahoma over Iowa State, 52-17
-Iowa State head coach Paul Rhoads has a knack for pulling off big wins, like last week against Oklahoma State, but can he do it two weeks in a row? The Cyclones are now bowl eligible and have nothing left to play for except bowl positioning.
-Oklahoma has Bedlam next week against Oklahoma State that will decide the Big 12…unless the Sooner get caught looking ahead and overlook Iowa State.
-Oklahoma's BCS hopes hinge on this game and its next game.
Result: Oklahoma 26, Iowa State 6
UPSET: No. 23 Georgia Tech over No. 13 Georgia, 35-33
-Listen, I've been one of the guys that's said how overrated Georgia is all year. The Bulldogs started the season 0-2 and have won nine straight since, but struggled with Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Florida and Kentucky last week. Seriously, Missouri could go undefeated in the SEC with Georgia's schedule, and notably, Georgia didn't play LSU…or Alabama…or Arkansas.
-Now, Georgia with the SEC Championship Game ahead of them head on the road to Georgia Tech, not an easy place to play.
-If Tech gets its offense going, and with its improved defense, it's game over Georgia.
Result: Georgia 31, Georgia Tech 17
No. 14 Michigan State over Northwestern, 28-27
-Michigan State is another team with the division already clinched so could take a week off the intensity meter. Northwestern is going to push them to the brink if the Spartans come out flat.
Result: Michigan State 31, Northwestern 17
No. 15 Michigan over Ohio State, 24-14
-Michigan has not won this rivalry game in seven years. Can first year head coach Brady Hoke do it in year one?
-Both QBs, Denard Robinson and Braxton Miller, lead their teams in rushing. Denard Robinson needs just seven rushing yards to get 1,000.
-Braxton Miller, the true freshman, has grown up the last three weeks making clutch play after clutch play.
-Both defenses are stingy, especially the improved Michigan D under Greg Mattison and there are two outstanding defensive tackles on display with Michigan's Mike Martin and Ohio State's John Simon.
-Ohio State has Boom Herron and DeVier Posey back. Michigan's gone to Fitzgerald Touissant as its featured back and he's been running well.
-The two teams look pretty even on paper except for their records. Will the Urban Meyer to Ohio State rumors be a distraction for the Buckeyes? Or a motivation factor to play harder for coach Luke Fickell?
-I believe Michigan gets to a BCS Bowl game with this win and Ohio State's offensive inefficiency will cost them, if Michigan can play like they did last week against Nebraska.
Result: Michigan 30, Ohio State 24
Rutgers over Connecticut, 24-10
-Rutgers played lights out defensively last week against Cincinnati. The offensive for Rutgers is there and the defense is coming along. Chas Dodd has taken the QB job back from true freshman Gary Nova and played well.
-Rutgers keeps itself in the hunt for the Big East title with this win against a horrible UConn offense.
Result: UConn 40, Rutgers 22
Cincinnati over Syracuse, 28-24
-I think Syracuse is going to surprise Cincinnati early on, but the Bearcats have too much firepower to be held down too long, with Syracuse not having safety Shamarko Thomas, Zach Collaros will have a big passing day.
Result: Cincinnati 30, Syracuse 13
SMU over Rice, 35-20
-SMU was shut down by Houston last week as Cougars' linebacker Sammy Brown had three sacks. Rice doesn't have a pass rush that will worry SMU.
-SMU's offense will get back on track.
Result: SMU 27, Rice 24
Tennessee over Kentucky, 27-20
-Tennessee is playing the Kentucky team that lost to Florida 48-10…that lost to LSU 35-7…that lost to South Carolina 54-3…that lost to Vanderbilt 38-8. Joker Phillips is a great guy, not a great coach. Tennessee wins and becomes bowl eligible.
Result: Kentucky 10, Tennessee 7
Troy over Western Kentucky, 31-23
-This is Western Kentucky's last chance to show why it should receive one of the Sun Belt Conference's two bowl bids.
-Bobby Rainey should carry Western Kentucky's offense again but the Hilltoppers have struggled against high-octane passing attacks like that of Troy, led by Corey Robinson.
Result: Western Kentucky 41, Troy 18
NC State over Maryland, 34-21
-Could Maryland really finish 2-10 in Randy Edsall's first season? With wins over Miami and Towson?
-NC State played its best game in the win over Clemson last week and QB Mike Glennon is finally coming around.
Result: NC State 56, Maryland 41
No. 7 Boise State over Wyoming, 44-20
-Boise State still has an outside chance at a BCS game, even though I think Oklahoma State, Michigan, and the Big Ten Leaders Division winner (Penn State or Wisconsin) loses the title game, and preferably Houston would all have to lose.
-The Broncos need to continue to rack put the "style points"
Result: Boise State 36, Wyoming 14
Nevada over Utah State, 34-27
-Nevada just dismissed leading rusher Mike Ball from the team and lost last week to Louisiana Tech to all but lose sole possession of the WAC Title.
-Utah State's Chuckie Keeton has had a stellar freshman season, but now Nevada's freshman Cody Fajardo is doing what Colin Kaepernick used to do and leading a revamped Nevada team.
Result: Utah State 21, Nevada 17
No. 2 Alabama over No. 24 Auburn, 42-13
-Alabama needs to outdo Georgia's domination of Auburn last week. This is Alabama's last chance to show voters why they deserve to play for the BCS championship.
-Alabama has a sign in its locker room that has Cam Newton's face on it with the words "Never Again."
Result: Alabama 42, Auburn 14.
No. 5 Virginia Tech over Virginia, 27-17
-The Commonwealth Cup decides the ACC Coastal Division that Virginia Tech has owned for so long.
-Virginia Tech RB David Wilson should be the real Heisman favorite but no one outside of Blacksburg, VA is paying attention to him. VT QB Logan Thomas is playing his best football of the season at the perfect time.
-Virginia has fought valiantly in every game this season, losing only to NC State by two touchdown margins.
-Virginia's had a good season and Mike London has done a great job, but I'm not sure he can keep it going, although home field advantage could help the Cavs.
Result: Virginia Tech 38, Virginia 0
No. 10 Oregon over Oregon State, 42-21
-The Civil War should not be very exciting this year.
Result: Oregon 49, Oregon State 21
No. 16 Wisconsin over No. 19 Penn State, 24-13
-The winner of this game in Camp Randall wins the Big Ten Leaders Division and goes to face Michigan State in the Inaugural Big Ten Championship Game.
-The Big Ten has removed Joe Paterno's name amid the allegations at Penn State from the championship trophy. Penn State wants to win the trophy and put a post-it note with "Paterno" on the trophy. In order to have the opportunity to do that, the Nittany Lions have to beat Wisconsin.
-Wisconsin has committed just seven turnovers all season, second to only LSU, so Penn State's focus has to be at forcing Wisconsin to go the length of the field on multiple drives.
-So much is made of Penn State's defense but Wisconsin has a top ten defense of its own and its offense has averaged 52.3 points per game at home in Camp Randall.
-Penn State has been able to stop the run in some games but hasn't seen a power running game like Wisconsin since Alabama, but the absence of Wisconsin center Peter Konz could be something the Nittany Lions try to capitalize on.
Result: Wisconsin 45, Penn State 7
Florida International over Middle Tennessee, 34-17
-FIU trying to improve to 8-4, which puts them in a better position perhaps than Louisiana and Western Kentucky for the Sun Belt's second bowl spot.
Result: FIU 31, Middle Tennessee 18
Purdue over Indiana, 28-21
-Purdue needs a win on Indiana's Senior Day to become bowl eligible.
-Indiana needs a win to not go winless in conference play in Kevin Wilson's first season as coach.
-Indiana has scored more than 24 points just once in a loss to Northwestern.
Result: Purdue 33, Indiana 25
Illinois over Minnesota, 30-14
-Illinois started the season 6-0 and has lost five straight. Ron Zook is done at Illinois if his team loses a sixth straight to Minnesota.
Result: Minnesota 27, Illinois 7
North Carolina over Duke, 28-10
-This is a HUGE rivalry in rivalry week. Oh wait, it's football not basketball.
Result: UNC 37, Duke 21
UPSET: Vanderbilt over Wake Forest, 19-16
-Vanderbilt lost in overtime to Tennessee last week on a questionable call so the Commodores need this win to be bowl eligible. James Franklin has a done great job with Vanderbilt in year one. The Vanderbilt defense will keep this a low scoring game, which will help Vanderbilt.
Result: Vandy 41, Wake Forest 7
East Carolina over Marshall, 34-31
-The winner of this game gets a bowl bid. Neither team plays defense so I'll go with the East Carolina offense.
Result: Marshall 34, ECU 27 (OT)
Missouri over Kansas, 34-24
-This could be the Border War too as we see a lot of great rivalries come to an end this year with conference realignment. Jordan Webb and James Franklin are similar quarterbacks but Franklin has a lot more weapons and a better defense, but again anything can happen in a rivalry game.
Result: Missouri 24, Kansas 10
Arizona over Louisiana-Lafayette, 37-24
-Arizona just hired Rich Rodriguez to be its next coach and now wants to win on Senior Day. Good thing Senior Day is against Louisiana. Expect Nick Foles to have a great game in his last game as an Arizona Wildcat.
Result: Arizona 45, ULL 37
UAB over Florida Atlantic, 24-7
-Two games left for the 0-10 FAU Owls in Coach Howard Schnellenberger's last season as a head coach. He just hasn't had a quarterback to replace Jeff VanCamp.
Result: FAU 38, UAB 35
Louisiana Tech over New Mexico State, 34-13
-New Mexico State has pulled off some wins this year: Minnesota, Idaho, Fresno State. But not this time.
Result: La Tech 44, N. Mex State 0
Southern Miss over Memphis, 31-10
-Southern Miss lost last week with the Conference-USA East Division already clinched. If they're more motivated to play this week the Golden Eagles win easily.
Result: S.Miss 44, Memphis 7
Air Force over Colorado State, 34-27
-Colorado State gives up a lot of rushing yards including a season high 393 to Boise State.
Result: Air Force 45, CSU 21
No. 18 Baylor over Texas Tech, 48-41
-Time for a Big 12 Shootout? Texas Tech can become bowl eligible but Robert Griffin will be too much.
Result: Baylor 66, TTU 42
Florida State over Florida, 20-17
-This should be a great game in The Swamp.
-Florida is on the brink of a .500 season, mostly due to the fact that the offense doesn't have the players to fit the system yet but the Gators still have an outstanding defense…that didn't show up last week against Furman.
-Florida State has a great defense of its own that we forget held Oklahoma and has been playing its best football the last five weeks.
-Which coach, Will Muschamp or Jimbo Fisher, gets his team more motivated? Florida State won this game last year in Jimbo's first season and Coach Urban Meyer's last.
-Florida kicker Caleb Sturgis and Florida State kicker Dustin Hopkins are both Lou Groza Award finalists.
Result: FSU 21, Florida 7
Mississippi State over Ole Miss, 33-30
-The Egg Bowl was a classic last year as Mississippi State won for the first since 1988 in Oxford.
-This year, neither team is any good at all with Ole Miss winless in the SEC and Mississippi State needing a win to be bowl eligible.
-This will be Houston Nutt's last game as coach of Ole Miss so do they send him out a winner?
Result: Miss St 31, Ole Miss 3
Washington over Washington State, 31-27
-The Apple Cup should be a good one. Washington has struggled defensively while Washington State's offense is much improved.
Result: Washington 38, WSU 21
UPSET: No. 17 Clemson over No. 12 South Carolina, 21-17
-South Carolina is one of the nation's leaders with 29 takeaways and Clemson has turned the ball over six times in its last two games.
-Clemson has played the last two weeks without RB Andre Ellington and superstar freshman WR Sammy Watkins. Watkins is expected back this week alone with left tackle Phillip Price.
-South Carolina has won two in a row in this in-state rivalry but hasn't won three in a row since 1970.
Result: SCAR 34, CLEM 13
No. 6 Stanford over No. 22 Notre Dame, 34-28
-Stanford has allowed more than 350 yards to its last two opponents: Oregon and California.
-Andrew Luck has never lost to Notre Dame and needs to have an awesome showing to solidify his Heisman Trophy status.
-Stanford is still without top receiver (and really, only receiver) Chris Owusu and tight end Zach Ertz.
-Stanford is currently 6th in the BCS Standings and not guaranteed a BCS Bowl-berth unless it is ranked in the Top 4. The Cardinal would need to win and have Oklahoma State and Virginia Tech lose for that to happen.
Result: STAN 28, ND 14
Fresno State over San Jose State, 27-21
-San Jose State did a nice job of playing spoiler for Navy last week, being the Midshipmen 27-24 to keep them out of a bowl game.
-Fresno State beat Hawaii 24-21, but that could have been because of the allegations of point shaving against Hawaii.
-Fresno QB Derek Carr should provide problems for San Jose State.
Result: San Jose State 27, Fresno 24
USC over UCLA, 45-24
-Good stat: UCLA has only won three conference road games in the Rick Neuheisel era.
-USC is in the Top 10 of AP Poll and first place in the Pac-12 South but the postseason ban placed on the program because of Reggie Bush does not allow USC to play in the conference championship game.
-If UCLA wins, they play for the Pac-12 Championship (I'm not going to say, they win the Pac-12 South because USC has already won that).
-This could be the last game of Matt Barkley's USC career if he decides to enter the NFL Draft (You heard it here first, I personally think he doesn't and come backs to USC for his senior year).
-UCLA can score some points against USC but the Trojans have way too much firepower.
Result: USC 50, UCLA 0
San Diego State over UNLV, 47-20
-UNLV has two wins, one of them to Hawaii and that game is under scrutiny because of point shaving allegations at Hawaii.
-This is a really, really bad UNLV team.
Result: San Diego State 31, UNLV 14
Hawaii over Tulane, 34-22
-Hey, here's another game Hawaii should win easily…or will they not cover the spread and possibly lose? They would be dumb to do that now that an investigation has been launched amid allegations of point shaving directed at Hawaii.
-Hawaii needs to win this game and next week against BYU to become bowl eligible.
Ongoing: Hawaii leads 28-16 in 4th quarter
Friday, November 25
Northern Illinois over Eastern Michigan 56-21
-One of my favorite guys, Chandler Harnish and his group of stud receivers will be too much.
-Northern Illinois clinches the MAC West with a win.
Result: NIU 18, EMU 12
South Florida over Louisville, 24-21
-South Florida has Louisville and West Virginia left on the schedule and needs one win to be bowl eligible.
-Charlie Strong's had some bad losses, but also some really good wins for Louisville.
-BJ Daniels' experience over Teddy Bridgewater will get the win.
Result: Lville 34, USF 24
No. 8 Houston over Tulsa, 47-40
-Can Houston stop Tulsa's offense?
-Tulsa has three losses this season - to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Boise State
-I expect a shootout, but every time I do, it ends up being low-scoring.
-Either way, Houston's defense cannot slow down the nation's better offenses.
Result: Houston 48, Tulsa 16
No. 21 Nebraska over Iowa, 27-24
-Iowa's got the underrated offense that can put up points. Marcus Coker will have to be a big factor on the ground.
-Nebraska's just got blown out by Michigan and fell out of a lot of individual ballots in the polls. They have something to prove.
Result: Nebraska 20, Iowa 7
Temple over Kent State, 35-14
-Temple is 2-1 since sophomore Chris Coyer has taken over at QB, but he has yet to throw an interception.
-Kent State overcame its putrid offense to go on a 4-game win streak. The Golden Flashes become bowl eligible with a win, but likely won't make a bowl game anyway.
-Temple is trying to ensure it gets into a bowl game.
Result: Temple 34, Kent State 16
Bowling Green over Buffalo, 37-27
-Bowling Green led by QB Matt Schilz took Ohio to the brink last week.
-Buffalo has struggled offensively, needing Chazz Anderson's arm and legs to win three games.
Result: Bowling Green 42, Buffalo 28
Western Michigan over Akron, 34-10
-Akron's one win is against VMI so the Zips will again go winless against FBS teams.
-Western Michigan QB Alex Carder is one of the most underrated QBs in the nation. The bowl-eligible Broncos can pick up their 7th win of the season and fight for a spot in the postseason.
Result: Western Michigan 68, Akron 19
Toledo over Ball State, 38-13
-Ball State really surprised me last week almost beating Northern Illinois thanks to two Huskies fumbles.
-Toledo is the best offensive team in the MAC. No way they let up now against Ball State.
-With a win and a Northern Illinois loss, Toledo wins the MAC West.
Result: Toledo 45, Ball State 28
No. 1 LSU over No. 3 Arkansas, 26-21
-This game obviously has huge BCS implications. For Arkansas to get into a BCS Bowl game, it's national championship or nothing. With a win, Arkansas can possibly (but not likely?) move into the No. 2 spot of the BCS, which would send Alabama to SEC Championship Game, and then if Alabama loses to Georgia, Arkansas could move to No. 1 with LSU at No. 2 for the national championship. There is no scenario that I can think of where Arkansas makes a BCS Bowl other than the championship game because if Georgia wins the SEC, they go to the Sugar Bowl and gives the BCS limit of three teams.
-LSU struggled slightly with West Virginia and its passing game and receivers. So, Arkansas' offense with receivers Greg Childs, Jarius Wright, Cobi Hamilton, Joe Adams and tight end Chris Gragg is better than West Virginia's group of Tavon Austin, Stedman Bailey, Ivan McCartney and Tyler Urban. Arkansas also has the running game to complement.
-Last year Arkansas ran the ball 47 times with Knile Davis. This year, no Davis, but a complement of backs with Ronnie Wingo, Dennis Johnson and Broderick Green.
-Arkansas defense gives up a lot of rushing yards, and LSU can pound the rock with Spencer Ware and Michael Ford.
-Razorbacks also struggled on the road with Alabama, Vanderbilt and Ole Miss.
-Arkansas has had trouble all year protecting QB Tyler Wilson, with four new starting offensive linemen this year. LSU has the best pass rush in the SEC and will get to Wilson. Wilson does a very nice job of standing firm and delivering the ball though.
-Arkansas punt returner, Joe Adams, has three punts returned for touchdowns this season, including a 61-yarder last week where he evaded eight tackles against Mississippi State. LSU punter Brad Wing has allowed the fewest punt return yards in the nation.
Result: LSU 41, Arkansas 17
Utah over Colorado, 28-21
-Utah started the season off shaky and looked like they couldn't compete in the Pac-12 with the big boys, but now with a win here against 2-10 Colorado, the Utes will be in a three-way for the Pac-12 South Division if UCLA loses to USC.
Result: Colorado 17, Utah 14
Miami over Boston College, 24-17
-Miami announced they will forgo a bowl game this year due to the Nevin Shapiro scandal, which means this is Miami's bowl game against Boston College. For the seniors, it will be the last time they ever suit up.
Result: Boston College 24, Miami 17
West Virginia over Pittsburgh, 31-24
-Could this be the last Backyard Brawl in a few years? One of college football's greatest rivalries may be coming to an end as Pitt is scheduled to move to the ACC for the 2014 season and West Virginia is looking to move to the Big 12 next season.
-The game is in Morgantown and with this win, and the Big East tiebreaker rules, West Virginia likely clinches a BCS Bowl-berth.
-Pitt can put up points, but West Virginia will be too much. Pitt doesn't have the proper personnel to defend a spread, but it's a rivalry game so anything can happen and the Panthers will keep it close.
Result: West Virginia 21, Pittsburgh 20
Central Florida over UTEP, 30-17
-With the loss last week to East Carolina, UCF has nothing left to play for except pride as they won't be bowl eligible.
-UTEP must get this win to be bowl eligible.
-Central Florida can play the role of spoiler, which they did so well last year by beating East Carolina, Houston and SMU.
Result: Central Florida 31, UTEP 14
Arizona State over California, 28-7
-Arizona State isn't completely out of the Big 12 South picture yet and need to win to stay in it.
-ASU is one of the nation's most underachieving teams because I believe they have a Top-15 roster.
-The Sun Devils have lost three straight games to UCLA, Washington State and Arizona when it would have taken just one win to clinch the division.
-Cal is a talented team, but Arizona State's defense needs to come out dominant.
Result: California 47, Arizona State 38
Saturday, November 26
No. 9 Oklahoma over Iowa State, 52-17
-Iowa State head coach Paul Rhoads has a knack for pulling off big wins, like last week against Oklahoma State, but can he do it two weeks in a row? The Cyclones are now bowl eligible and have nothing left to play for except bowl positioning.
-Oklahoma has Bedlam next week against Oklahoma State that will decide the Big 12…unless the Sooner get caught looking ahead and overlook Iowa State.
-Oklahoma's BCS hopes hinge on this game and its next game.
Result: Oklahoma 26, Iowa State 6
UPSET: No. 23 Georgia Tech over No. 13 Georgia, 35-33
-Listen, I've been one of the guys that's said how overrated Georgia is all year. The Bulldogs started the season 0-2 and have won nine straight since, but struggled with Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Florida and Kentucky last week. Seriously, Missouri could go undefeated in the SEC with Georgia's schedule, and notably, Georgia didn't play LSU…or Alabama…or Arkansas.
-Now, Georgia with the SEC Championship Game ahead of them head on the road to Georgia Tech, not an easy place to play.
-If Tech gets its offense going, and with its improved defense, it's game over Georgia.
Result: Georgia 31, Georgia Tech 17
No. 14 Michigan State over Northwestern, 28-27
-Michigan State is another team with the division already clinched so could take a week off the intensity meter. Northwestern is going to push them to the brink if the Spartans come out flat.
Result: Michigan State 31, Northwestern 17
No. 15 Michigan over Ohio State, 24-14
-Michigan has not won this rivalry game in seven years. Can first year head coach Brady Hoke do it in year one?
-Both QBs, Denard Robinson and Braxton Miller, lead their teams in rushing. Denard Robinson needs just seven rushing yards to get 1,000.
-Braxton Miller, the true freshman, has grown up the last three weeks making clutch play after clutch play.
-Both defenses are stingy, especially the improved Michigan D under Greg Mattison and there are two outstanding defensive tackles on display with Michigan's Mike Martin and Ohio State's John Simon.
-Ohio State has Boom Herron and DeVier Posey back. Michigan's gone to Fitzgerald Touissant as its featured back and he's been running well.
-The two teams look pretty even on paper except for their records. Will the Urban Meyer to Ohio State rumors be a distraction for the Buckeyes? Or a motivation factor to play harder for coach Luke Fickell?
-I believe Michigan gets to a BCS Bowl game with this win and Ohio State's offensive inefficiency will cost them, if Michigan can play like they did last week against Nebraska.
Result: Michigan 30, Ohio State 24
Rutgers over Connecticut, 24-10
-Rutgers played lights out defensively last week against Cincinnati. The offensive for Rutgers is there and the defense is coming along. Chas Dodd has taken the QB job back from true freshman Gary Nova and played well.
-Rutgers keeps itself in the hunt for the Big East title with this win against a horrible UConn offense.
Result: UConn 40, Rutgers 22
Cincinnati over Syracuse, 28-24
-I think Syracuse is going to surprise Cincinnati early on, but the Bearcats have too much firepower to be held down too long, with Syracuse not having safety Shamarko Thomas, Zach Collaros will have a big passing day.
Result: Cincinnati 30, Syracuse 13
SMU over Rice, 35-20
-SMU was shut down by Houston last week as Cougars' linebacker Sammy Brown had three sacks. Rice doesn't have a pass rush that will worry SMU.
-SMU's offense will get back on track.
Result: SMU 27, Rice 24
Tennessee over Kentucky, 27-20
-Tennessee is playing the Kentucky team that lost to Florida 48-10…that lost to LSU 35-7…that lost to South Carolina 54-3…that lost to Vanderbilt 38-8. Joker Phillips is a great guy, not a great coach. Tennessee wins and becomes bowl eligible.
Result: Kentucky 10, Tennessee 7
Troy over Western Kentucky, 31-23
-This is Western Kentucky's last chance to show why it should receive one of the Sun Belt Conference's two bowl bids.
-Bobby Rainey should carry Western Kentucky's offense again but the Hilltoppers have struggled against high-octane passing attacks like that of Troy, led by Corey Robinson.
Result: Western Kentucky 41, Troy 18
NC State over Maryland, 34-21
-Could Maryland really finish 2-10 in Randy Edsall's first season? With wins over Miami and Towson?
-NC State played its best game in the win over Clemson last week and QB Mike Glennon is finally coming around.
Result: NC State 56, Maryland 41
No. 7 Boise State over Wyoming, 44-20
-Boise State still has an outside chance at a BCS game, even though I think Oklahoma State, Michigan, and the Big Ten Leaders Division winner (Penn State or Wisconsin) loses the title game, and preferably Houston would all have to lose.
-The Broncos need to continue to rack put the "style points"
Result: Boise State 36, Wyoming 14
Nevada over Utah State, 34-27
-Nevada just dismissed leading rusher Mike Ball from the team and lost last week to Louisiana Tech to all but lose sole possession of the WAC Title.
-Utah State's Chuckie Keeton has had a stellar freshman season, but now Nevada's freshman Cody Fajardo is doing what Colin Kaepernick used to do and leading a revamped Nevada team.
Result: Utah State 21, Nevada 17
No. 2 Alabama over No. 24 Auburn, 42-13
-Alabama needs to outdo Georgia's domination of Auburn last week. This is Alabama's last chance to show voters why they deserve to play for the BCS championship.
-Alabama has a sign in its locker room that has Cam Newton's face on it with the words "Never Again."
Result: Alabama 42, Auburn 14.
No. 5 Virginia Tech over Virginia, 27-17
-The Commonwealth Cup decides the ACC Coastal Division that Virginia Tech has owned for so long.
-Virginia Tech RB David Wilson should be the real Heisman favorite but no one outside of Blacksburg, VA is paying attention to him. VT QB Logan Thomas is playing his best football of the season at the perfect time.
-Virginia has fought valiantly in every game this season, losing only to NC State by two touchdown margins.
-Virginia's had a good season and Mike London has done a great job, but I'm not sure he can keep it going, although home field advantage could help the Cavs.
Result: Virginia Tech 38, Virginia 0
No. 10 Oregon over Oregon State, 42-21
-The Civil War should not be very exciting this year.
Result: Oregon 49, Oregon State 21
No. 16 Wisconsin over No. 19 Penn State, 24-13
-The winner of this game in Camp Randall wins the Big Ten Leaders Division and goes to face Michigan State in the Inaugural Big Ten Championship Game.
-The Big Ten has removed Joe Paterno's name amid the allegations at Penn State from the championship trophy. Penn State wants to win the trophy and put a post-it note with "Paterno" on the trophy. In order to have the opportunity to do that, the Nittany Lions have to beat Wisconsin.
-Wisconsin has committed just seven turnovers all season, second to only LSU, so Penn State's focus has to be at forcing Wisconsin to go the length of the field on multiple drives.
-So much is made of Penn State's defense but Wisconsin has a top ten defense of its own and its offense has averaged 52.3 points per game at home in Camp Randall.
-Penn State has been able to stop the run in some games but hasn't seen a power running game like Wisconsin since Alabama, but the absence of Wisconsin center Peter Konz could be something the Nittany Lions try to capitalize on.
Result: Wisconsin 45, Penn State 7
Florida International over Middle Tennessee, 34-17
-FIU trying to improve to 8-4, which puts them in a better position perhaps than Louisiana and Western Kentucky for the Sun Belt's second bowl spot.
Result: FIU 31, Middle Tennessee 18
Purdue over Indiana, 28-21
-Purdue needs a win on Indiana's Senior Day to become bowl eligible.
-Indiana needs a win to not go winless in conference play in Kevin Wilson's first season as coach.
-Indiana has scored more than 24 points just once in a loss to Northwestern.
Result: Purdue 33, Indiana 25
Illinois over Minnesota, 30-14
-Illinois started the season 6-0 and has lost five straight. Ron Zook is done at Illinois if his team loses a sixth straight to Minnesota.
Result: Minnesota 27, Illinois 7
North Carolina over Duke, 28-10
-This is a HUGE rivalry in rivalry week. Oh wait, it's football not basketball.
Result: UNC 37, Duke 21
UPSET: Vanderbilt over Wake Forest, 19-16
-Vanderbilt lost in overtime to Tennessee last week on a questionable call so the Commodores need this win to be bowl eligible. James Franklin has a done great job with Vanderbilt in year one. The Vanderbilt defense will keep this a low scoring game, which will help Vanderbilt.
Result: Vandy 41, Wake Forest 7
East Carolina over Marshall, 34-31
-The winner of this game gets a bowl bid. Neither team plays defense so I'll go with the East Carolina offense.
Result: Marshall 34, ECU 27 (OT)
Missouri over Kansas, 34-24
-This could be the Border War too as we see a lot of great rivalries come to an end this year with conference realignment. Jordan Webb and James Franklin are similar quarterbacks but Franklin has a lot more weapons and a better defense, but again anything can happen in a rivalry game.
Result: Missouri 24, Kansas 10
Arizona over Louisiana-Lafayette, 37-24
-Arizona just hired Rich Rodriguez to be its next coach and now wants to win on Senior Day. Good thing Senior Day is against Louisiana. Expect Nick Foles to have a great game in his last game as an Arizona Wildcat.
Result: Arizona 45, ULL 37
UAB over Florida Atlantic, 24-7
-Two games left for the 0-10 FAU Owls in Coach Howard Schnellenberger's last season as a head coach. He just hasn't had a quarterback to replace Jeff VanCamp.
Result: FAU 38, UAB 35
Louisiana Tech over New Mexico State, 34-13
-New Mexico State has pulled off some wins this year: Minnesota, Idaho, Fresno State. But not this time.
Result: La Tech 44, N. Mex State 0
Southern Miss over Memphis, 31-10
-Southern Miss lost last week with the Conference-USA East Division already clinched. If they're more motivated to play this week the Golden Eagles win easily.
Result: S.Miss 44, Memphis 7
Air Force over Colorado State, 34-27
-Colorado State gives up a lot of rushing yards including a season high 393 to Boise State.
Result: Air Force 45, CSU 21
No. 18 Baylor over Texas Tech, 48-41
-Time for a Big 12 Shootout? Texas Tech can become bowl eligible but Robert Griffin will be too much.
Result: Baylor 66, TTU 42
Florida State over Florida, 20-17
-This should be a great game in The Swamp.
-Florida is on the brink of a .500 season, mostly due to the fact that the offense doesn't have the players to fit the system yet but the Gators still have an outstanding defense…that didn't show up last week against Furman.
-Florida State has a great defense of its own that we forget held Oklahoma and has been playing its best football the last five weeks.
-Which coach, Will Muschamp or Jimbo Fisher, gets his team more motivated? Florida State won this game last year in Jimbo's first season and Coach Urban Meyer's last.
-Florida kicker Caleb Sturgis and Florida State kicker Dustin Hopkins are both Lou Groza Award finalists.
Result: FSU 21, Florida 7
Mississippi State over Ole Miss, 33-30
-The Egg Bowl was a classic last year as Mississippi State won for the first since 1988 in Oxford.
-This year, neither team is any good at all with Ole Miss winless in the SEC and Mississippi State needing a win to be bowl eligible.
-This will be Houston Nutt's last game as coach of Ole Miss so do they send him out a winner?
Result: Miss St 31, Ole Miss 3
Washington over Washington State, 31-27
-The Apple Cup should be a good one. Washington has struggled defensively while Washington State's offense is much improved.
Result: Washington 38, WSU 21
UPSET: No. 17 Clemson over No. 12 South Carolina, 21-17
-South Carolina is one of the nation's leaders with 29 takeaways and Clemson has turned the ball over six times in its last two games.
-Clemson has played the last two weeks without RB Andre Ellington and superstar freshman WR Sammy Watkins. Watkins is expected back this week alone with left tackle Phillip Price.
-South Carolina has won two in a row in this in-state rivalry but hasn't won three in a row since 1970.
Result: SCAR 34, CLEM 13
No. 6 Stanford over No. 22 Notre Dame, 34-28
-Stanford has allowed more than 350 yards to its last two opponents: Oregon and California.
-Andrew Luck has never lost to Notre Dame and needs to have an awesome showing to solidify his Heisman Trophy status.
-Stanford is still without top receiver (and really, only receiver) Chris Owusu and tight end Zach Ertz.
-Stanford is currently 6th in the BCS Standings and not guaranteed a BCS Bowl-berth unless it is ranked in the Top 4. The Cardinal would need to win and have Oklahoma State and Virginia Tech lose for that to happen.
Result: STAN 28, ND 14
Fresno State over San Jose State, 27-21
-San Jose State did a nice job of playing spoiler for Navy last week, being the Midshipmen 27-24 to keep them out of a bowl game.
-Fresno State beat Hawaii 24-21, but that could have been because of the allegations of point shaving against Hawaii.
-Fresno QB Derek Carr should provide problems for San Jose State.
Result: San Jose State 27, Fresno 24
USC over UCLA, 45-24
-Good stat: UCLA has only won three conference road games in the Rick Neuheisel era.
-USC is in the Top 10 of AP Poll and first place in the Pac-12 South but the postseason ban placed on the program because of Reggie Bush does not allow USC to play in the conference championship game.
-If UCLA wins, they play for the Pac-12 Championship (I'm not going to say, they win the Pac-12 South because USC has already won that).
-This could be the last game of Matt Barkley's USC career if he decides to enter the NFL Draft (You heard it here first, I personally think he doesn't and come backs to USC for his senior year).
-UCLA can score some points against USC but the Trojans have way too much firepower.
Result: USC 50, UCLA 0
San Diego State over UNLV, 47-20
-UNLV has two wins, one of them to Hawaii and that game is under scrutiny because of point shaving allegations at Hawaii.
-This is a really, really bad UNLV team.
Result: San Diego State 31, UNLV 14
Hawaii over Tulane, 34-22
-Hey, here's another game Hawaii should win easily…or will they not cover the spread and possibly lose? They would be dumb to do that now that an investigation has been launched amid allegations of point shaving directed at Hawaii.
-Hawaii needs to win this game and next week against BYU to become bowl eligible.
Ongoing: Hawaii leads 28-16 in 4th quarter
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