Gildan New Mexico Bowl: Temple (8-4) vs. Wyoming (8-4)
Dec. 17 2 p.m. on ESPN - University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
Temple has the nation’s third best scoring defense allowing just 13.8 points per game but gave up 30+ points to Toledo and Ohio, two MAC teams with explosive offenses. The last time Wyoming won a bowl game was two years ago when they had a true freshman quarterback named Austyn Carta-Samuels. He’s since transferred, but now another true freshman quarterback has taken the helm, Brett Smith. Smith is a dual threat and makes really good decisions. He played his best career game on the road in an upset over San Diego State and led the team in wins over Air Force and went toe-to-toe with TCU.
Wyoming offense revolves around the running game between Smith and junior running back Alvester Alexander (who was also a freshman in Wyoming’s last bowl win and had a big game) but Smith can spread the ball around too to a lot of different guys.
Temple will want to run the ball with sensational running back Bernard Pierce, while Wyoming will want Temple, the nation’s 117th-ranked passing offense, to have to throw the ball. The only problem, Wyoming is 115th in the nation in rush defense.
Temple runs for 256.7 yards per game while Wyoming gives up 230+ yards per game and gave up 303 yards on the ground in a loss to Utah State, but the Cowboys are fourth in the nation in turnover margin. They will have to capitalize.
The game is in New Mexico, while Temple flies across the country, it’s a close game for Wyoming fans. Steve Addazio has a done a nice job in his first year as Temple head coach, but I like Wyoming to upset the Owls.
Pick: Wyoming 26, Temple 21
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Ohio (9-4) vs. Utah State (7-5)
Dec. 17 5:30 p.m. on ESPN - Bronco Stadium, Boise, ID
Utah State is one of the most improved teams in the WAC and burst onto the national scene in week one with a near upset of defending national champion Auburn. True freshman quarterback Chuckie Keeton stole the show with his ability to make plays with his arm and his feet. Keeton then hit a midseason slump and left the Hawaii game with an injury and hasn’t returned this season. Stepping in his prized recruit, Adam Kennedy, who has a big arm. Utah State is 4-0 with Kennedy as the starter and he got them to bowl eligibility while completing 70 percent of his passes and leading three fourth quarter comebacks.
Helping Kennedy at Utah State is junior running back Robert Turbin who’s rushed for 1,416 yards and 19 touchdowns to lead the nation’s sixth best rushing attack. Utah State gains 277 yards per game on the ground while Ohio allows just 130. The MAC runner-up Bobcats are led by a new dual threat quarterback, Tyler Tettleton and has one of the best defenses in the MAC led by linebacker Noah Keller.
A problem for Ohio has been turnovers, in the MAC Championship Game, Tettleton threw three interceptions while Ohio also lost a fumble.
Utah State’s pass defense can be a little suspect, and Ohio will want to get the ball to star receiver LaVon Brazill.
Pick: Ohio 27, Utah State 24
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: San Diego State (8-4) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (8-4)
Dec. 17 9 p.m. on ESPN - Superdome, New Orleans, LA
San Diego State will have to travel across the country to New Orleans where the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns will have a notable home field advantage in its first ever bowl game as an FBS program under first year head coach Mark Hudspeth. San Diego State’s coached by Rocky Long, who took over for Brady Hoke this season so it’s a first bowl trip for both coaches, but Long was there on the staff with Hokie last year as the Aztecs prepared for the Poinsettia Bowl and knows what needs to be done to prepare for a bowl game.
San Diego State senior quarterback Ryan Lindley didn’t have the season I expected him to and regressed some after losing his top two receivers to the NFL last season. Lindley completed just 52.5 percent of his passes and threw three interceptions against a rebuilding TCU secondary. Lindley passed for 2,740 yards this season, down from 3,830 last season.
What’s still there for San Diego State is sophomore running back Ronnie Hillman, one of the best in the nation that no one knows about. Hillman leads the Mountain West with 1,656 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns.
Louisiana quarterback Blaine Gautier is a guy who can make plays with both his arm and his feet and is an underrated passer. Louisiana put up points on Oklahoma State, competed with conference champion Arkansas State and almost upset Arizona. This is a team that can put up points but has struggled to stop the run, giving up 206 yards to Western Kentucky back Bobby Rainey.
Pick: San Diego State 35, Louisiana 21
Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl: Florida International (8-4) vs. Marshall (6-6)
Dec. 20 8 p.m. on ESPN – Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
This may be the least intriguing bowl matchup but still worth watching because of FIU receiver T.Y. Hilton, who just makes plays. Hilton’s playmaking ability led FIU to its first bowl win last year in a 34-32 win over Toledo in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl.
Marshall is the team that maybe deserves to be playing in a bowl game the least. This team somehow beat Southern Miss and Louisville, but beat Memphis by just one and won over East Carolina in overtime just to become bowl eligible in the season finale.
Marshall is 101st in the nation in total offense with true freshman Rakeem Cato at quarterback. Marshall scores about 22 points per game while giving up 30. There is no balance in the offense with a lack of a running game with Tron Martinez.
FIU’s defense gives up just 19 points per game and has an offense that can break out at any moment with running back Kedrick Rhodes and Wesley Carroll at quarterback throwing to Hilton and Wayne Times, who broke out in the win over Troy.
The best player on the field in this game will be Hilton with 950 receiving yards and number on the nation in punt returns. He is electrifying and maybe the only reason to watch this game.
Pick: FIU 34, Marshall 13
S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: TCU (10-2) vs. Louisiana Tech (8-4)
Dec. 21 8 p.m. on ESPN – Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA
If you’re picking bowl games, as long as TCU comes ready to play, this might be the biggest lock of a pick. Louisiana Tech won the WAC title for the right to play in the Poinsettia Bowl, but only to go against TCU. The Horned Frogs won the Mountain West again and just came short of making a BCS Bowl. If not for the overtime loss to SMU, TCU would be in a BCS Bowl.
Casey Pachall has done a formidable job replacing Andy Dalton as TCU’s quarterback and Josh Boyce has become a go-to receiver while the speedy Skye Dawson has filled in for Jeremy Kerley. TCU’s three-headed rushing attack of Waymon James, Matthew Tucker and Ed Wesley hasn’t missed a beat. TCU scores 41.7 points per game.
Louisiana Tech finished the season on a seven game winning streak after Colby Cameron took over at quarterback. La Tech has one receiver to watch named Quinton Patton. The junior has over 1100 receiving yards this seasons and TCU’s secondary has been suspect as it rebuilds. TCU gave up 349 passing yards to SMU, 414 to Baylor and 320 to Boise State.
Louisiana Tech’s most useful weapon though may be Ray Guy Award winning punter Ryan Allen. They’ll be using him often.
Pick: TCU 38, La Tech 17
MAACO Bowl Las Vegas: Arizona State (6-6) vs. Boise State (11-1)
Dec. 22 8 p.m. on ESPN – Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Last year, a missed field goal kept Boise State out of the Rose Bowl. This year, a missed field goal may have kept Boise State out of the national championship game. This was also a year of disappointment for Arizona State, who went 6-6 last year but missed the postseason because of scheduling one too many FCS opponents. ASU had high expectations this year. The Pac-12 South all but belonged to them after they beat USC and a late season collapse threw it all away and cost Dennis Erickson his job.
If both teams are focused and come ready to play, this could be a really entertaining game. Boise is a big favorite, but don’t count out the Sun Devils who are loaded on offense and has a loaded defense that failed to play to its potential.
Arizona State’s defense has battled injuries and Boise QB Kellen Moore is going for his NCAA-leading 50th career win and is 4th in the nation in passing efficiency while Arizona State ranks 91st in passing efficiency defense.
Boise State also allows the least sacks in the nation, and injuries for Arizona State on defense haven’t allowed them to get the pressure they want to on the quarterback.
Of course, we can’t forget about the troubled Arizona State linebacker Vontaze Burfict, who leads his team with five sacks and a million personal fouls.
Boise is going to score its points and be focused, the question is will Arizona State do the same? QB Brock Osweiler has a lot of weapons from running back Cameron Marshall to receivers Gerrell Robinson, Aaron Pflugrad, Mike Willie and Jamal Miles.
Pick: Boise State 42, Arizona State 31
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: Nevada (7-5) vs. Southern Miss (11-2)
Dec. 24 8 p.m. on ESPN – Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, HI
Nevada got off to a sluggish 1-3 start as Tyler Lantrip tried to replace Colin Kaepernick at quarterback. Once the true freshman Cody Fajardo took over, things changed for Nevada as the top ten offense reemerged, gaining over 522 yards per game.
This could be a high-scoring game, the last time Nevada played in the Hawaii Bowl though, it laid an egg against SMU. One of the nation’s best receivers, Rishard Matthews, is back for Nevada and had a big year but the Wolf Pack dismissed their leading tail back Mike Ball.
Southern Miss struggled to find a run game until it moved receiver Tracy Lampley into the backfield. Senior quarterback Austin Davis will be keyed on going out with a bowl win after upsetting Houston in the Conference USA Championship Game. Davis will need to be weary of Isaiah Frey patrolling the secondary for Nevada. Neither team plays defense particularly well but do have playmakers, Southern Miss may have the best defensive player in the game with Cordarro Law who leads the team in sacks.
Pick: Southern Miss 34, Nevada 24
AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl: Missouri (7-5) vs. North Carolina (7-5)
Dec. 26 5 p.m. on ESPN2 – Independence Stadium, Shreveport, LA
Missouri got a nice parting gift from the Big 12 as it heads to the SEC next season and was left out of the Big 12 bowl pecking order. Shreveport isn’t a bad place to be for the Tigers though, in my opinion.
Both teams feature new starting quarterbacks from a year ago, Missouri’s James Franklin and North Carolina’s Bryn Renner. Missouri arguably has the best five losses of any five-loss team (Arizona State in overtime, Oklahoma by 10, Kansas State by 7, Oklahoma State and Baylor by 3).
Missouri’s 11th-ranked rushing offense is hurt with Henry Josey out but the other two backs De’Vion Moore and Kendial Lawrence provide enough balance if they get going. Franklin is also a 1,000-yard rusher and can make plays with his feet while Renner is just a pocket passer, and an efficient one.
North Carolina is a top-15 rush defense, but is 0-2 all-time vs. Missouri. There is a lot of really good defensive talent in this game on both sides, despite Missouri not playing up to standards. Quinton Coples, Donte Paige-Moss, Tydreke Powell, Kevin Reddick, Zach Brown and Charles Brown are among the best defenders in the ACC.
Offensively, North Carolina freshman running back Giovani Bernard has been a pleasant surprise rushing for 1,285 yards while Dwight Jones notched school records with 79 catches and 11 touchdown catches. Renner set the school record with 23 touchdown passes.
North Carolina has hired former-Southern Miss coach Larry Fedora as its next football coach. This will be the final game for interim man Everett Withers, who is rumored to be joining Urban Meyer’s staff at Ohio State.
Pick: North Carolina 24, Missouri 21
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl: Western Michigan (7-5) vs. Purdue (6-6)
Dec. 27 4:30 p.m. on ESPN – Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Alex Carder to Jordan White! …That’s what Purdue will have to try to stop to get a win in Ford Field against MAC opponent, Western Michigan. Jordan White has an NCAA-leading 127 receptions for 1,646 yards and 16 touchdowns. Good thing for Purdue is its defense is much better against the pass than the run, and Western Michigan has little to no run game.
If Purdue can put a cap on White, they should be able to score enough to win. I go back to the Eastern Michigan game for Western Michigan where Jordan White had 7 catches for 70 yards but no touchdowns and the Broncos lost 14-10 in their lowest offensive output of the season. In contrast, White had 16 catches for 238 yards and three touchdowns in Western Michigan’s 66-63 loss to Toledo, its highest offensive output of the season.
For Purdue, last year’s starter Rob Henry went down with an injury…then back up Sean Robinson…and Miami-transfer Robert Marve was recovering from an injury, which gave the job to 4th-stringer Caleb TerBush after he mades with his trickshot video during the offseason.
TerBush has had ups and downs, while Marve takes some snaps as well, but Purdue has playmakers that no one knows about – Antavian Edison, Justin Siller, and O.J. Ross at the receiver position with running back Ralph Bolden back from last year’s torn ACL.
It looks like it’ll be Ricardo Allen, one of the best cornerbacks in the Big Ten, on Jordan White. Purdue’s defense is also stocked with Kawann Short, who has 17 tackles for loss.
Pick: Purdue 28, Western Michigan 24
Belk Bowl: Louisville (7-5) vs. North Carolina State (7-5)
Dec. 27 8 p.m. on ESPN – Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Louisville lost to FIU and Marshall earlier this season, but have won five of its last six headed into bowl season. The growth of true freshman quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has been the key. The Cardinals are extremely young with two promising freshman receivers in Michaelee Harris and DeVante Parker. Louisville’s defense has given up just 19 points per game this season, but the Cardinals do give up a lot of sacks.
NC State ended its season with a 42 point comeback over Maryland as quarterback Mike Glennon lived up to the hype in the final weeks. A lot of pressure will be on Glennon in this game with NC State having virtually no running game (107th in the nation). The good thing for the Wolfpack is that they do not turn the ball over very often.
NC State’s David Amerson leads the nation with 11 interceptions and Bridgewater has a 4:3 touchdown to interception ratio. I think the game will be close, but I give the motivational edge to Charlie Strong and Louisville.
Pick: Louisville 31, NC State 28
Military Bowl pres. by Northrop Grumman: Toledo (8-4) vs. Air Force (7-5)
Dec. 28 4:30 p.m. on ESPN – RFK Stadium, Washington, D.C.
Toledo hasn’t faced an option team all season and they’re tough to prepare for. Air Force brings the nation’s No. 2 rushing offense with 320 yards per game while Toledo plays much better defense against the run than against the pass.
Toledo comes in winning seven of its last eight games, but lost its head coach Tim Beckman to Illinois. The Rockets have already removed the interim tag and named offensive coordinator Matt Campbell as the new head coach.
Air Force is underrated in the secondary, they play well against the pass. Toledo has Eric Page at receiver who just makes plays. I’m not sure Air Force can contain Page. Toledo has a very explosive offense, its scored 49, 60, 66, 44 and 45 in the last five games.
Pick: Toledo 34, Air Force 27
Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl: Texas (7-5) vs. California (7-5)
Dec. 28 8 p.m. on ESPN – Qualcomm Stadium
California comes into a bowl game as the underdog for the first time since 2003. Texas comes in with a 7-5 record and just happy to be back in the postseason after going 5-7 last year.
At first glance, you get the feeling Texas’ defense will dominate Cal, especially with extra time to prepare, but Cal has some playmakers. Texas corners Quandre Diggs and Carrington Byndom will go against Cal receivers Keenan Allen and Marvin Jones. Cal QB Zach Maynard is no slouch either, able to make plays with his feet as well and is most effective when he gets outside of the pocket, so the Texas pass rush will have to keep him contained.
By game time, Texas hopes to have running backs Malcolm Brown and Joe Bergeron healthy again. Cal gives up 130 yards per game on the ground while Texas gains 210, including 393 vs. Texas Tech. Texas will want to establish the run game first, but if they can’t, the Cal secondary has given up big plays.
These two teams can settle the 2004 debate for good on the field. I think Mack Brown will have his Texas team highly motivated to play and with enough time to prepare, Manny Diaz will have defensive fronts Cal has never seen before. Alex Okafor, Jackson Jeffcoat, Keenan Robinson and Emmanuel Acho will make things tough for Cal’s offensive line on blitz looks.
Pick: Texas 24, Cal 10
Champs Sports Bowl: Florida State (8-4) vs. Notre Dame (8-4)
Dec. 29 5:30 p.m. on ESPN – Citrus Bowl, Orlando, FL
Both of these teams had BCS expectations entering the season. Notre Dame’s eight wins came on a pair of four game win streaks and Florida State rebounded from a three game skid to win six of the last seven with the lone loss by one point.
Florida State comes in with its dominating defense that really had two hiccups all season in losses to Clemson and Wake Forest. The defense ranks 6th in the nation in total defense, 4th in the nation in scoring defense (15.2 ppg), 2nd in the nation in rush defense, 9th in the nation in sacks and 5th in the nation in tackles for loss.
I’ll take Florida State’s defense over what Notre Dame has to offer. Notre Dame’s one real playmaker is Michael Floyd. Tommy Rees will start the bowl game but Andrew Hendrix is expected to play at quarterback too. Jonas Gray is out, so it’s up to Cierre Woods to carry the run game.
Florida State’s defense likes to create turnovers and Notre Dame is 116th in the nation in turnover margin and we know when the Irish don’t play well, they turn the ball over a lot. Here’s a good stat too, Florida State is the best in the nation in net punting while Notre Dame is dead last in the nation in punt returns.
It’s the first sellout in Champs Sports Bowl history with a big name matchup, but the numbers don’t look good for Notre Dame.
Pick: Florida State 33, Notre Dame 17
Valero Alamo Bowl: Washington (7-5) vs. Baylor (9-3)
Dec. 29 9 p.m. on ESPN – Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
This is another game where the matchup doesn’t look good for one of the teams. Washington is 94th in the nation in total defense and now they get to go up against Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III and Baylor’s explosive offense ranked No. 2 in total offense. But then you look at the other side, and Baylor’s defense is even worse statistically (114th) but can Washington keep up with Baylor in a shootout?
It’s Baylor’s 5th-ranked pass offense vs. Washington’s 116th-ranked pass defense and Baylor’s 102nd-ranked run defense against Chris Polk of Washington.
I’m sure Baylor wants to ride RG3, but it can simply just hand the ball off to Terrance Ganaway in the physical running game. Stanford’s run game put up 446 yards against Washington.
RG3 is on his way to shattering the NCAA record for passing efficiency in the season and should have no problem doing that against Washington.
Pick: Baylor 45, Washington 24
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl: BYU (9-3) vs. Tulsa (8-4)
Dec. 30 Noon on ESPN – Gerald Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX
BYU is going for a 10-win season after a slow start. This game could give BYU a big boost heading into next season. For Tulsa, it’s GJ Kinne’s last game.
Kinne, the Texas-transfer, has had a nice career at Tulsa but struggled against the better defenses he’s faced this season, Oklahoma, Boise State and Houston. Against ranked teams, Kinne has thrown four touchdowns and seven interceptions. BYU is a solid defensive team and is 7th in the country in pass defense. Also, Kinne has been without his biggest playmaking threat, Damaris Johnson, all season after Johnson was arrested before the season on embezzlement charges.
BYU has gotten hot since Riley Nelson regained the quarterback job from Jake Heaps. Heaps has since decided to transfer. Nelson has been efficient with just five interceptions and Tulsa is 118th in the nation against the pass. Without a lot of pressure, Nelson should be able to find freshman All-American Ross Apo, Cody Hoffman and McKay Jacobson.
Pick: BYU 34, Tulsa 21
New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Iowa State (6-6) vs. Rutgers (8-4)
Dec. 30 3:20 p.m. on ESPN – Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
For whatever reason, I always pick Rutgers and that’s not going to change here. Rutgers’ offense has been up and down under first year coordinator Frank Cignetti but the defense has really turned the corner. Now, Rutgers did completely botch its last game when all it needed was a win to clinch a share of the Big East title and somehow let Connecticut score 40 points, but the Scarlet Knights are ready to put that behind them in front of a hometown crowd at Yankee Stadium.
Rutgers has the No. 1 defense in the Big East led by converted linebacker Khaseem Green and his 127 tackles. The defense gives up just 18.8 points per game. The offense is what needs to get going and it should because despite having some really good defensive players (Jake Knott, AJ Klein and Jake Lattimer), Iowa State doesn’t play defense very well.
Mohamed Sanu of Rutgers set the Big East record with 109 receptions and he’ll go against an Iowa State defense that can’t cover anybody.
It’s tough to count out Iowa State because Paul Rhoads is one of the most underrated coaches in the country, but if Rutgers puts the UConn game behind them and shows up to play, they should be highly favored.
Pick: Rutgers 27, Iowa State 21
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl: Wake Forest (6-6) vs. Mississippi State (6-6)
Dec. 30 6:40 p.m. on ESPN – LP Field, Nashville, TN
It’s the first ever meeting between these two teams and Mississippi State is going for its fifth straight bowl win. Wake Forest is coming off a 41-7 loss at home to Vanderbilt.
Mississippi State will want to pound the ball with Vick Ballard against Wake Forest who gives up 162 yards on the ground per game. Mississippi State’s quarterback play hasn’t been stellar as even Dylan Favre got his chance this year before Chris Relf regained the job. The Bulldogs leading receiver is Chris Smith with just 30 catches and explosive receiver Chad Bumphis hasn’t been a big enough part of the offense.
For Wake Forest, Tanner Price’s maturation led them to a 5-2 start before losing four of the last five games. Price will look for his top target Chris Givens and has thrown just six interceptions this year, but Mississippi State has a pair of ball hawking defensive banks, Johnthan Banks and Nickoe Whitley.
Pick: Mississippi State 23, Wake Forest 14
Insight Bowl: Iowa (7-5) vs. Oklahoma (9-3)
Dec. 30 10 p.m. on ESPN – Sun Devil Stadium, Tempe, AZ
This is not the same Oklahoma team that was preseason No. 1 and is 4th in the nation in total offense. Ever since Oklahoma’s top receiver Ryan Broyles went down with an injury, Landry Jones has thrown zero touchdowns and five interceptions. To make things better, Jones will also be without receiver Jaz Reynolds for the bowl game and running back Dominique Whaley is still out.
That said, Oklahoma is still significantly the better team over Iowa but the Sooners are notorious for not showing up in bowl games and not being motivated to play.
I would not be surprised if Iowa with James Vandenburg, Marcus Coker, Marvin McNutt, Keenan Davis and Kevonte Martin-Manley outplay Oklahoma. With that said, Oklahoma is still too good to lose to Iowa.
Pick: Oklahoma 44, Iowa 27
Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas: Texas A&M (6-6) vs. Northwestern (6-6)
Dec. 31 Noon on ESPN – Reliant Stadium, Houston, TX
Texas A&M, a preseason top ten teams that finishes 6-6. How does that happen? By blowing five double digit leads in the second half of its losses. A&M’s lead over Texas at halftime when it lost was 9.
A&M faces a Northwestern team that hasn’t won a bowl game since the 1949 Rose Bowl. This is clearly a mismatch on paper despite the even records.
Texas A&M has fired coach Mike Sherman, but if they’re focused for this game, they should win easily. Cyrus Gray is back for A&M and Ryan Tannehill should benefit from the time off to get ready for the bowl game to regain his confidence and he still has Ryan Swope and Jeff Fuller to throw to. Northwestern will be without its top corner, Jordan Mabin.
Pick; Texas A&M 34, Northwestern 20
Hyundai Sun Bowl: Georgia Tech (8-4) vs. Utah (7-5)
Dec. 31 2 p.m. on CBS – Sun Bowl, El Paso, TX
Utah used to play a triple-option team all the time in the Mountain West in Air Force but in its first year in the Pac-12, the Utes haven’t seen the triple-option in over a year. Utah was one win away from headed to the Pac-12 Championship Game and then lost to Colorado. Utah’s defense is what kept them in most games in the Pac-12 as the offense hasn’t been effective at all (110th in the nation). Jon Hays is the quarterback after Jordan Wynn was knocked out for the year.
Georgia Tech’s No. 3 rushing offense will go against Utah’s No. 7 rushing defense and the Utes do have prior experience against the triple-option. The question is will it Tevin Washington of Synjyn Davis running it for Georgia Tech, who has lost six straight bowl games.
The different might be the big improvements in Georgia Tech’s defense under Al Groh. The front seven led by Jeremiah Attachou can add a lot of pressure to Hays and keep running back John White IV in check.
Pick: Georgia Tech 24, Utah 14
AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Cincinnati (9-3) vs. Vanderbilt (6-6)
Dec. 31 3:30 p.m. on ABC – Liberty Bowl, Memphis, TN
What a job James Franklin has done changing the culture in Vanderbilt in his first season. Vanderbilt beat Wake Forest 41-7 in the final week to become bowl eligible. This is just the fifth bowl game in Vandy history. When you look at Vandy’s losses, four of them, Tennesse (in overtime), Florida, Arkansas and Georgia came by a combined 13 points. Zac Stacy for Vanderbilt has a school record 1,136 rushing yards.
Cincinnati is expecting Zach Collaros to be back at quarterback for the bowl game and has its own great back in Isaiah Pead, the first Cincinnati player to have back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons in 25 years.
Vanderbilt has been a completely different team since Jordan Rodgers (Aaron Rodgers’ brother) took over as quarterback and made Jordan Matthews one of the best receivers in the SEC.
Beyond the quarterbacks and running backs, these are two really good defenses. Vanderbilt is second in the nation with 17 interceptions and Cincinnati led the Big East with a +15 turnover margin and sacks. Vanderbilt is led by linebacker Chris Marve and cornerback Casey Hayward. Cincinnati is led by defensive tackle Derek Wolfe and linebacker JK Schaffer.
Cincinnati’s 6th-ranked rush defense might be the reason why they win, but I really like the direction this Vanderbilt team is going.
Pick: Vanderbilt 21, Cincinnati 17
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Illinois (6-6) vs. UCLA (6-7)
Dec. 31 3:30 p.m. on ESPN – AT&T Park, San Francisco, CA
Illinois fired Ron Zook and UCLA fired Rick Neuheisel so this will be the first coachless bowl in history. Illinois offensive coordinator Paul Petrino has already left the staff and will join Arkansas and will not coach the bowl game. Illinois defensive coordinator and interim head coach Vic Koenning has already said he will not return to Illinois but will coach the bowl game.
Illinois is 7th in the nation in total defense and that’s all they have going for them, the Illini haven’t scored more than 17 points since Oct. 8 despite trying to create a spark with Riley O’Toole at quarterback. Whitney Mercilus leads the nation with 14.5 sacks and a Big Ten record of 9 forced fumbles.
UCLA will want to run the ball first with Jonathan Franklin but glimpses of the passing game emerged in the Pac-12 Championship as Nelson Rosario made some big catches that everyone has expected throughout his entire career.
This game should be mostly about motivation, and I don’t Illinois players really responded to Ron Zook, but the UCLA players loved Neuheisel.
Pick: UCLA 17, Illinois 13
Chick-fil-A Bowl: Virginia (8-4) vs. Auburn (7-5)
Dec. 31 7:30 p.m. on ESPN – Georgia Dome, Atlanta
It’s Virginia’s first bowl game since 2007 but the bigger news is that Auburn’s star tailback Michael Dyer is suspended for this game for violating team rules. The even bigger news is that Auburn defensive coordinator Ted Roof is gone for Central Florida and offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn is gone to be the head coach at Arkansas State. Both coordinators leaving kind of makes you wonder what’s happening at Auburn.
Auburn had almost zero offense in SEC play while going through three quarterbacks. Virginia had played two quarterbacks early on until it finally settled on Michael Rocco. Both these teams average in the low 20s in points scored. The difference in Virginia this year has been its defense creating clutch plays. Auburn’s defense on the other hand, has been bad. Really, really bad. But it’s an extremely young squad. Perry Jones and Kevin Parks create a good 1-2 punch out of the Virginia backfield but in the passing game, Kris Burd is the only real threat Auburn has to worry about.
Onterrio McCalebb will take over for Dyer and should make some big plays. McCalebb is one of those underappreciated backs, but just makes plays. He averages 6.3 yards per carry for his career and is a good receiver out of the backfield.
Pick: Virginia 28, Auburn 21
TicketCity Bowl: Penn State (9-3) vs. Houston (12-1)
Jan. 2 Noon on ESPNU – Cotton Bowl, Dallas
The nation’s No. 1 passing offense takes on the nation’s No. 5 passing defense. Houston’s quarterback Case Keenum has set pretty much all the NCAA passing records and has 5,099 yards and 45 touchdowns this season. Penn State has allowed just nine touchdown passes all season; Keenum threw nine touchdowns in one game against Tulane. Houston scores 50.8 points per game; Penn State gives up 15.7 points per game. Houston passes for 443.8 yards per game; Penn State gives up 162.2 passing yards per game.
Are Penn State’s numbers skewed for not facing that many pass first offenses in the Big Ten? Maybe. We’ll find out in this game.
Houston is fast, really fast. Can Penn State keep up? Penn State is really physical. Can Houston battle?
Patrick Edwards, Justin Johnson, and Tyron Carrier are three receivers Penn State can’t let get behind him. Houston also has a three-headed attack out of the backfield with Charles Sims, Michael Hayes and Bryce Beall.
Keenum has show he struggles under pressure and Penn State doesn’t blitz a lot but has shown it can get pressure with its defensive line. Devon Still blows up a lot of plays in the backfield.
Penn State hasn’t been able to score a lot of points but has been able to protect its quarterback. It will have to protect McGloin against Sammy Brown, who has 12.5 sacks.
Penn State will need its defense to get pressure and force turnovers and will have to move the ball offensively and establish the run game with Silas Redd. Houston gives up 171.8 yards per game on the ground.
Pick: Penn State 34, Houston 30
Outback Bowl: Michigan State (10-3) vs. Georgia (10-3)
Jan. 2 1 p.m. on ABC – Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Michigan State has back-to-back 10-win seasons for the first time in history, but Mark Dantonio is 0-4 in bowl games. Kirk Cousins will try to end his career at Michigan State with Dantonio’s first bowl win.
For Georgia, they’re coming off the collapse against LSU in the SEC Championship Game. LSU ran the ball down Georgia’s throat in the second half, which is what Michigan State will want to do. The Spartans have been rolling, scoring 38.6 points per game in its last five games.
Both teams are in the top five nationally in total defense (Georgia at 3, Michigan State at 5) and both have very efficient quarterbacks.
Cousins may have more weapons between his running game BJ Cunningham and Keshawn Martin, while Murray’s weapons are young freshmen, who’ve never been to a bowl game before.
Michigan State’s pass defense led by Johnny Adams will put Murray to the test and Georgia will have to get some kind of run game going against the aggressive Jerel Worthy on Michigan State’s defensive front. A lot makes me lean towards Michigan State, but for some reason I like Georgia in this game. Maybe it’s just another SEC > Big Ten scenario.
Pick: Georgia 27, Michigan State 24
Capital One Bowl: Nebraska (9-3) vs. South Carolina (10-2)
Jan. 2 1 p.m. on ESPN – Citrus Bowl
This is the best bowl game Nebraska has played in in a while. This is the best bowl game South Carolina has played in, ever. The Gamecocks have lost three straight bowl games but find themselves here with a 10-win season after dismissing Stephen Garcia, who was quarterback for all three of the previous bowl losses. It’s the second time in history South Carolina has had 10 wins.
South Carolina also lost Marcus Lattimore to a torn ACL earlier this season but seems to not be missing him as much with the true freshman Brandon Wilds doing an admirable job in Lattimore’s place and Connor Shaw just leading his team to wins.
This is a really good matchup and if Nebraska plays at a high level, should be a great game. Nebraska’s defense is perhaps better on paper, but South Carolina’s defense is 4th in the nation and No. 2 against the pass. Nebraska is a run-first offense.
Interestingly, Taylor Martinez has not run for more than 56 yards since Oct. 8. Nebraska’s 13th-ranked rush offense led by Rex Burkhead gets 223.9 yards per game but “T-Magic” hasn’t contributed much to it lately.
The way to beat Nebraska is always to make Martinez pass and if the Gamecocks can do that, then they will have a field day defensively with Jadeveon Clowney and Melvin Ingram rushing the passer and Stephon Gilmore and Antonio Allen patrolling the secondary.
Pick: South Carolina 20, Nebraska 17
TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl: Florida (6-6) vs. Ohio State (6-6)
Jan. 2 1 p.m. on ESPN2 – EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL
A pair of programs that have been really good in recent years now face each other and they’re both 6-6. Now, I’m against having 6-6 teams in bowl games, but if we didn’t, we wouldn’t have this game – the Urban Meyer Bowl.
This game features Florida’s 102nd-ranked total offense vs. Ohio State’s 107th-ranked total offense. Both offenses have a lot of playmakers but Florida’s playmakers didn’t give Charlie Weis and Florida that “schematic advantage” that’s become a joke. Weis did seem to make John Brantley better, but then Brantley had to battle injuries and the players around him didn’t fit the offense. Despite that, those guys are still Chris Rainey, Jeff Demps and Andre Debose – guys who can make plays in the right spots.
The problem for Florida has been turnovers, and Ohio State creates a lot of them. Florida is 113th in the nation in turnover margin and lost to Florida State by only giving up 95 total yards because of turnovers. The Gators have been hindered by them and have scored 13 or less points in six of the last seven games.
This game also features two really good defenses that I think will play well. The key will be if Florida can contain Braxton Miller. Florida’s pass defense is surprisingly good for having a lot of freshman in the secondary. Marcus Roberson and DeAnte Saunders have played well and the secondary gives up just 167 passing yards per game.
Miller can throw the ball but creates plays and throwing opportunities with his feet. Therefore, Ohio State’s 116th ranked passing attack is a misnomer. DeVier Posey is back for Ohio State and Jake Stoneburner creates matchup players. However, Ohio State’s offensive line has given up a lot of sacks and Florida’s Ronald Powell loves to get after the quarterback. If Florida can contain Miller, this game will be a defensive battle.
Pick: Florida 20, Ohio State 16
Rose Bowl Game pres. by Vizio: Oregon (11-2) vs. Wisconsin (11-2)
Jan. 2 5 p.m. on ESPN – Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA
Wisconsin will be the best offensive line Oregon faces all season. They can run teams over and also protect Russell Wilson. Oregon is third in the nation in sacks averaging over three per game. Wisconsin’s offensive line is big, Oregon’s defensive line is really fast. That’s a mismatch that Oregon needs to exploit like they did against Stanford’s physical offensive line. Oregon forced Andrew Luck into mistakes so it’s not inconceivable to think they can do the same to Wilson.
Russell Wilson came to Wisconsin for one reason – to win a Rose Bowl. I don’t think he’ll let this opportunity slip by. Wisconsin is two Hail Mary plays away from playing for the national championship.
The big question will be if Wisconsin can keep Oregon’s plays in front of them. If this turns into a track meet, Wisconsin doesn’t have a chance and teams have shown in the past that you can run against this year’s Wisconsin defense. This will be the last game for LaMichael James in an Oregon uniform as he’s already announced he will declare for the 2012 NFL Draft. Kenjon Barner and De’Anthony Thomas create some match up problems for Wisconsin too.
What favors Wisconsin is in Oregon’s two losses, they’ve been exposed in multiple areas. In Oregon’s loss to LSU, LSU’s ground game pounded away and wore Oregon out, which Wisconsin can do. In Oregon’s loss to USC, they were lit up in the passing game by Matt Barkley, which Wisconsin can do.
Wisconsin running back Montee Ball finished fourth in the Heisman Trophy voting and will play with a chip on his shoulder and run behind his offensive line that will look to wear Oregon down and keep that offense off the field.
Pick: Wisconsin 34, Oregon 24
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State (11-1) vs. Stanford (11-1)
Jan. 2 8:30 p.m. on ESPN – U. of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Shootout Alert. This game has the potential to be really appealing to offensive minded fans. This may be the best quarterback matchup of bowl season, how about Brandon Weeden vs. Andrew Luck? Weeden leads the nation’s No. 2 scoring offense and Luck leads the nation’s No. 5 scoring offense. Luck will be the No. 1 draft pick in the 2012 NFL Draft and Weeden may go in the second round, but in this matchup – Advantage: Weeden. He’s just got more playmakers that Luck does. Andrew Luck’s top target Chris Owusu hasn’t been consistent and over half of Luck’s 35 touchdown passes have gone to his three tight ends – Coby Fleener, Zach Ertz and Levine Toilolo. Stanford has the edge in the running game numbers wise, averaging over 207 yards per game but that stat got a boost from 446 yards against Washington. Stepfan Taylor likes to run behind that physical Stanford offensive line that can win in the trenches but they’ll be dealing with Jamie Blatnick and Richetti Jones of Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma State running back Joseph Randle quietly has 23 touchdowns this season while averaging over 6.1 yards per carry. Randle is a guy that break the big run at any moment, despite this longest run this season being just 32 yards.
Say what you want about Oklahoma State’s defense being bad. Its 107th national ranking doesn’t look good, but it is a “bend don’t break” defense and capitalizes on turnovers. The Cowboys are +20 in the turnover margin.
Stanford’s defense isn’t all that great either. They do get after the quarterback with Chase Thomas and his 8.5 sacks and the defense ranks 6th in sacks, but getting to Weeden has been tough for opposing teams due to his quick release and five returning starting offensive lineman.
Pick: Oklahoma State 45, Stanford 35
Allstate Sugar Bowl: Michigan (10-2) vs. Virginia Tech (11-2)
Jan. 3 8:30 p.m. – Superdome, New Orleans, LA
In year one under Brady Hoke, Michigan is back in a BCS Bowl game seeking its first BCS win since 2000. Virginia Tech played in the Orange Bowl last year and was trounced by Stanford, at a game that I was at (thank you free tickets).
The biggest change for Michigan has been the defense under first year coordinator Greg Mattison. Michigan’s defense, with the same personnel I might add, improved from 110th in the nation last year to 18th in the nation now.
Michigan struggled early because Al Borges’ offense didn’t fit what Denard Robinson can do but later in the season against Nebraska and Ohio State, the Michigan staff really opened up the offense to suit Robinson and he has gone back to his 2010 stellar performances. Virginia Tech is a good defense too, but could struggle to contain Robinson. I think Michigan will score its points.
For Virginia Tech to win, it’ll need to score and keep up. Virginia Tech IMG Radio Network analyst Mike Burnop, who I talked to, expects a high scoring game and I feel the same way. As long as Virginia Tech doesn’t turn the ball over, they can go toe to toe with anybody thanks to the maturation of quarterback Logan Thomas and the emergence of DJ Coles as a receiver. The Hokies struggle when they turn the ball over, and Thomas turned it over three times against Clemson in the ACC Championship Game after fixing his turnover problem late in the season.
Pick: Michigan 35, Virginia Tech 21
Discover Orange Bowl: West Virginia (9-3) vs. Clemson (10-3)
Jan. 4 8:30 p.m. on ESPN – Sun Life Stadium, Miami, FL
Clemson is in the Orange Bowl for the first time since 1981 when it won the national title. The way Clemson started the season, some people thought they’d have a shot at the national title this season. I was among those surprised by Clemson’s meteoric rise this year, I saw the talent but thought it would take a year to develop and Clemson would be good in 2012 but Sammy Watkins and Tony Stewart have come in and made huge impacts as true freshman.
For West Virginia, it’s back in a BCS Bowl in Dana Holgorsen’s first year with his offense. Quarterback Geno Smith is 22 yards away from being the first West Virgnia player ever to pass for 4,000 yards. Clemson gives up about 202 yards per game through the air while Smith averages 341.8 yards.
West Virginia’s defense has been shaky at times this season, but lost a lot of pieces from last season. The last four games the Mountaineers have played have been decided by three points or less (three wins, one loss), but Louisville, Rutgers and Syracuse each scored 30+ on this defense. Just judging by that, Clemson has the potential to drop 40. Can West Virginia cover Watkins and slow down Andre Ellington and force pressure on Tajh Boyd. Bruce Irvin has just 7.5 sacks this season, which is disappointing to him and Keith Tandy has just three interceptions this season, half of his six last season.
Clemson’s defense has faded down the stretch losing three of its last four before the ACC Title Game, giving up more than 31 points in each of the three losses and 28 to Wake Forest in the lone win.
West Virginia might not have a run game, but its loaded group of receivers – Tavon Austin, Stedman Bailey, Ivan McCartney, Brad Starks, Tyler Urban, Devon Brown – could be too much for Clemson to cover if they can’t get pressure on Smith.
Speaking of getting pressure, both of these offensive lines give up a lot of sacks.
Pick: West Virginia 27, Clemson 20
AT&T Cotton Bowl: Kansas State (10-2) vs. Arkansas (10-2)
Jan. 6 8 p.m. on FOX – Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, TX
Wait, Kansas State has 10 wins? How did that happen? You can’t say enough about the job that Bill Snyder has done there in Manhattan, KS. Arkansas also has 10 wins and both teams are not in a BCS Bowl. Kansas State was a snub and Arkansas is a consequence of the BCS system.
Both of these teams can score points, averaging over 30 points per game, though they are two completely different styles. Arkansas averaged 445.8 yards per game of offense against the SEC. That is a staggering number. Kansas State averaged 343.4 yards per game in the Big 12 in its ground and pound ball control offense.
The defensive edge clearly belongs to Arkansas. It’ll just be a question of whether Arkansas comes ready to play, will they be motivated? We know Kansas State will be because they’re trying to prove their record is legit. Kansas State has won offensive explosions against Texas Tech and Texas A&M but then scratched and clawed its way to wins over Texas, Missouri and Iowa State. Its defense also made a play against Baylor intercepting Heisman winner Robert Griffin III late to seal the one point victory. Nigel Malone leads the Big 12 with seven interceptions.
But, the Kansas State pass defense gives up 267.3 yards per game, 104th in the nation. Arkansas would like to throw all over that defense with the SEC’s best quarterback Tyler Wilson and his arsenal of weapons – Jarius Wright, Joe Adams, Cobi Hamilton, Chris Gragg, Greg Childs.
Kansas State doesn’t have a lot of superior athletes while Arkansas is loaded with SEC talent and speed. This is clearly a mismatch on paper, but both teams have 10 wins, although Arkansas could have more if it didn’t have to play No. 1 LSU and No. 2 Alabama. If Kansas State shocks the world, I won’t even be surprised. But I don’t see it happening, but I do see a closer game than expected.
Pick: Arkansas 42, Kansas State 34
BBVA Compass Bowl: SMU (7-5) vs. Pittsburgh (6-6)
Jan. 7 1 p.m. on ESPN – Legion Field, Birmingham, AL
SMU almost lost its coach. Pitt did lose its coach. SMU coach June Jones almost left for the Arizona State job and then the news breaks that Pitt head coach Todd Graham was taking the Arizona State job.
Graham departed Pittsburgh by sending a text message to forward to his team that he was leaving. He did not face his team in-person. Players were disgusted by that and made jokes of Graham’s loyalty and commitment. Will the players rally around interim head coach Keith Patterson or fold and not care about playing any more football after what’s happened? Last year, Pitt played under interim coach Phil Bennett and beat Kentucky in this very same bowl game. That said, Pitt expressed that it did not want to be in this bowl game again after playing in Birmingham last year. By becoming bowl eligible in the final week of the season, Pitt didn’t have much of a choice.
Then there’s SMU, who scored 33.7 points per game in its first six and then 17.7 points per game in the final six. Ever since running back Zach Line was lost for the season, the SMU offense disappeared and J.J. McDermott has struggled. McDermott has 16 touchdowns and 16 interceptions on the year, with 11 of those interceptions coming in the last six games.
McDermott still has go-to guys with Cole Beasley and Darius Johnson and I have a feeling that SMU will be more focused than Pitt. Pitt has a big pass rusher in Brandon Lindsey but Pitt struggles to protect its own quarterback Tino Sunseri, giving up 56 sacks this season.
The on paper matchup favors Pitt’s defense that hasn’t given up more than 271 total yards in the last nine games, but Pitt’s offense isn’t the same without Ray Graham and SMU linebackers Taylor Reed and Ja’Gared Davis are two players to watch.
Pick: SMU 27, Pittsburgh 19
GoDaddy.com Bowl: Arkansas State (10-2) vs. Northern Illinois (10-3)
Jan. 8 9 p.m. on ESPN – Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile, AL
Two of my favorite non-AQ quarterbacks are in this game: Northern Illinois’ Chandler Harnish and Arkansas State’s Ryan Aplin. Northern Illinois this season has scored 49, 42, 47, 41, 40, 51, 31, 63, 45 and 41. Arkansas State has topped 35 points five times. These two teams can score, and they both do it with the passing game led by a dual-threat quarterback. Aplin has 3,235 yards passing and 783 rushing. Harnish has 2,942 yards passing and 1,382 rushing. Harnish also has a 26 touchdown passes to five interceptions.
Neither team runs the ball particularly well out of the backfield. These teams are so similar on offense. Arkansas State has three go-to receivers: Dwayne Frampton, Josh Jarboe and Taylor Stockemer. Northern Illinois has Nathan Palmer, Martel Moore and Perez Ashford.
The separating factor may be defense. Northern Illinois plays good defense when it wants to, like shutting out Ohio in the second half of the MAC Championship Game. Beating Toledo 63-60 and giving up 38 points to Ball State and 48 in a loss to Central Michigan are examples of when NIU doesn’t play defense.
Arkansas State plays defense consistently, albeit they face Sun Belt offenses while Northern Illinois faces the powerful MAC offenses that give us MACtion every week. Arkansas State gives up 19 points per game and is in the top 20 nationally in sacks and tackles for loss. Brandon Joiner has 12 sacks. Northern Illinois is 5th nationally in sacks allowed.
Ryan Aplin will be back for Arkansas State next year. For Chandler Harnish, this is his last game. He will go out a winner.
Pick: Northern Illinois 33, Arkansas State 24
Allstate BCS National Championship Game: No. 1 LSU (13-0) vs. No. 2 Alabama (11-1)
Jan. 9 8:30 p.m. on ESPN – Superdome
We’ve already talked about this game once, and LSU won in overtime in Tuscaloosa by a field goal. Need we say more about this game? You know all the stats, you know these are the two best teams and two best defenses. You know about Heisman finalists Trent Richardson and Tyrann Mathieu. Is there anything more than can or needs to be said?
All there is to add is that a touchdown will be scored this time and I’m convinced Alabama’s better than LSU, but the eye test points towards the Tigers and how can they not at this point complete the magical season?
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