Championship Week Picks

Friday, December 2
MAC Championship Game: Ohio (9-3) vs. Northern Illinois (9-3)
Northern Illinois lost its first MAC game to Central Michigan and then ripped off seven straight wins. Ohio comes in with a five game win streak and beat NIU in 2009, the last time the two teams played. Today, the Huskies still have star quarterback Chandler Harnish, one of my favorite guys, while this is a completely different Ohio offense.
Ohio's new quarterback is Tyler Tettleton, who is a good dual threat and has almost identical statistics with Harnish.
With Harnish's running ability, Northern Illinois 8th in the nation in rushing offense with 255 yard per game. But this Ohio defense is pretty stout against the run with a great linebacking corps led by Noah Keller.
This should be another high-scoring MAC game. NIU averages 40 points per game and Ohio averages 32 points per game. Both teams average more than 460 total yards, which we see a lot in MAC play.
Northern Illinois has five reliable and explosive receivers: Nathan Palmer, Martel Moore, Perez Ashford, Da'Ron Brown and Willie Clark, while Ohio's one go-to guy is LaVon Brazill, but NIU is 91st in the nation in total defense.
I can't pick against Northern Illinois though as they go for the MAC Title and a berth in the GoDaddy.com Bowl.
Pick: Northern illinois 41, Ohio 35


Pac-12 Championship Game: UCLA (6-6) at No. 9 Oregon (10-2)
These two teams didn't meet in the regular season now that the Pac-12 has split into two divisions. The last time they met in 2010, Oregon won 60-13, and that last touchdown UCLA got was in garbage time. Darron Thomas passed for 308 yards and three touchdowns while LaMichael James added 123 yards on the ground.
Thomas and James have both suffered injuries this year, but Oregon could definitely beat UCLA without them. UCLA coach Rick Neuheisel will coach his final game as he is fired, effective after this game. Neuheisel acknowledged UCLA won't be able to stop Oregon so they have to try to keep up. To do that, the Bruins will have to get the ground game going with Jonathan Franklin and try to control time of possession and keep Oregon off the field. Oregon will most certainly stop the run and force Kevin Prince to throw, which he struggles with like all UCLA quarterbacks and Oregon will put the pressure on. The Ducks opened up a 30-point favorite.
Even if UCLA loses this game drops to 6-7 on the season, the NCAA has granted the Bruins a bowl waiver.
Pick: Oregon 55, UCLA 16


Saturday, December 3
Conference USA Championship Game: No. 24 Southern Miss (10-2) at No. 6 Houston (12-0)
Houston has won just one C-USA championship - against Southern Miss. Case Keenum in his 6th year has led the Cougars to an undefeated 12-0 record. Only Southern Miss stands between Houston and a BCS Bowl game (likely the Sugar Bowl). Southern Miss has a great QB of its own in Austin Davis, but Davis has thrown 10 interceptions to Keenum's 3. Southern Miss is in the minus in turnover margins.
Can the #1 offense in the nation and Case Keenum averaging 449 passing yards per game put up the same numbers against Southern Miss's 12th-ranked passing efficiency defense.
Either way, Houston's shown it can play some defense with Marcus McGraw and Sammy Brown, shutting down Tulsa and other high powered offenses.
Pick: Houston 42, Southern Miss 28


SEC Championship Game: No. 14 Georgia (10-2) vs. No. 1 LSU (12-0)
LSU is your national champion. Enough said. Win or lose, LSU should be on its way to the BCS Championship Game, and it's funny saying "win or lose." There is no way LSU can possibly lose to Georgia, especially after getting bulletin board material with Georgia saying they're the better team and have a better defense. When you're playing against the No. 1 team in the nation, you shouldn't motivate them anymore than you have to.
Georgia has had a good year with 10 straight wins after two losses to open the season, but seriously, if Vanderbilt played Georgia's schedule, the Commodores would have 9 wins. To me, Georgia is still one of the most overrated teams in the nation and it will show against a more dominant LSU that hasn't allowed a second half touchdown in the last six games.
Pick: LSU 34, Georgia 10


ACC Championship Game: No. 5 Virginia Tech (11-1) vs. No. 20 Clemson (9-3)
Here's a chance for Virginia Tech to redeem itself for the 20-point loss it suffered at home to Clemson earlier this year for its lone loss. Back then, Clemson was a top ten team and Virginia Tech QB Logan Thomas was figuring himself out. Now, Thomas is one of the nation's hottest QBs and Clemson is free-falling.
Virginia Tech did a nice job of slowing down Andre Ellington and containing Sammy Watkins in the first matchup, which will is still important, but now Ellington is hurt and Watkins is returning from injury and quarterback Tajh Boyd has turned into a turnover machine and has been sacked 11 times in the last two games, too.
Virginia Tech is coming off its best performance with a 38-0 win over Virginia.
David Wilson had 123 yards on the ground the first matchup, if VT plays the same defense, Logan Thomas keeps up his improvements and the Hokies convert third downs, they're going to the Orange Bowl.
Pick: Virginia Tech 28, Clemson 17


Big Ten Championship Game: No. 15 Wisconsin (10-2) vs. No. 13 Michigan State (10-2)
If not for Michigan State's Hail Mary and Ohio State's Hail Mary, Wisconsin could be in the hunt for the national championship game. This isn't the same team that Michigan State was able to go toe-to-toe with in East Lansing. But then again, Michigan State now brings William Gholston back, who was suspended the first time these two teams play, when Wisconsin had 220 rushin guards.
Wisconsin running back Montee Ball needs five touchdowns to tie the single season record while Michigan State looks for a trip to the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1988, while Wisconsin was there last year.
Russell Wilson threw two interceptions against Michigan State and has not thrown one since (three this season). Wisconsin just rolled over Penn State like the Nittany Lions were a JV team. There are still ways to attack Wisconsin's secondary, which Michigan State was able to do last time and Kirk Cousins had the game of his life and he'll have to do it again. This time, I like Wisconsin.
Michigan State gets to the Rose Bowl with a win, probably the Outback Bowl with a loss.
Pick: Wisconsin 30, Michigan State 24


No. 10 Oklahoma (9-2) at No. 3 Oklahoma State (10-1)
This is the de facto Big 12 Championship Game and with a convincing win, Oklahoma State could make a case for the national championship game, but will make the BCS regardless with a win.
Oklahoma has won nine straight in the Bedlam rivalry, including last year's 48-41 thriller.
Oklahoma State's offensive line has been great this season, but Oklahoma is third in the nation with over three sacks per game.
Oklahoma is without Dominique Whaley and Ryan Broyles, but still, Oklahoma State's defense is ranked 107th in the nation, so the No. 2 offense will have to outscore Oklahoma again. Can the defense make a few plays to keep Oklahoma under 40 points?
Pick: Oklahoma 47, Oklahoma State 38


Syracuse (5-6) at Pittsburgh (5-6)
The winner of this game becomes bowl eligible and the other one's season is over. Pittsburgh QB Tino Sunseri was sacked 10 times last week by West Virginia. Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib has taken a beating this season, too.
Pitt's without running backs Ray Graham and Zach Brown. Syracuse has badly underachieved this season as they had a lot of guys coming back from last year's eight win team. The Pittsburgh defense has been playing great and will pull out another win on Senior Day.
Pick: Pittsburgh 24, Syracuse 16


Connecticut (5-6) at Cincinnati (8-3)
Here it is, the game that decides the Big East. If Cincinnati wins, West Virginia wins the Big East. If Cincinnati loses, Louisville wins the Big East. There will probably be four quarterbacks in this game with Cincinnati's Munchie Legaux and Jordan Luallen and UConn's Johnny McEntee and Scott McCummings. UConn put a slugging on Rutgers last week and you can see how well the Huskies can play. Cincinnati certainly has the defensive end, but UConn's defense is pretty good too and there's no Zach Collaros for the Bearcats.
Pick: Cincinnati 23, UConn 20


Iowa State (6-5) at No. 11 Kansas State (9-2)
Kansas State could clinch a Cotton Bowl spot with a win here. The Wildcats are coming off a bye week after the Cyclones just played a physical game against Oklahoma last week. Collin Klein just makes things happen for Kansas State but can he withstand the beating he'll take from Iowa State linebackers AJ Klein and Jake Knott?
Pick: Kansas State 30, Iowa State 17


Wyoming (7-4) at Colorado State (3-8)
Colorado State has been really disappointing on its seven game losing streak, including losses to San Jose State, UTEP and UNLV.
Wyoming should have a field day with running back Alvester Alexander and true freshman dual threat Brett Smith. But then again, Colorado State sophomore running back Chris Nwoke, with 1,000 yards already, is going against Wyoming's 114th ranked rush defense.
I don't think Nwoke will be enough and Wyoming will control the ball with Smith. Colorado State's 91st ranked offense has been dismal.
Pick: Wyoming 33, Colorado State 17


UNLV (2-9) at No. 18 TCU (9-2)
One team is TCU, the other is UNLV.
Pick: TCU 45, UNLV 10


No. 22 Texas (7-4) at No. 17 Baylor (8-3)
The Texas defense has been third best in the nation the second half of the season, behind only LSU and Alabama. Texas has given up only 249 total yards per game during that span. The Texas defense is focused on slowing down Baylor's explosive offense and Heisman candidate quarterback Robert Griffin. To quote the Texas defense: "No one wins the Heisman on us."
Texas has slowed down every great offense it has faced this season, except Oklahoma, which was Manny Diaz's first experience against a high-powered offense and he was taken aback but vastly improved since then.
For Texas, this game is the difference between a berth to the Insight Bowl or the Pinstripe Bowl in cold weather. The Longhorns will be motivated and will hold Griffin to under 250 total yards. Despite the offense, Baylor is still 114th in the nation in total defense and 102nd in rushing defense. The last time Texas faced a rush defense this bad (Texas Tech), the Horns ran for 393 yards.
Case McCoy is listed as the only starter at QB for Texas for the first time this season after a good drive to win over Texas A&M. McCoy has yet to throw an interception and serves as a good game manager who can make plays.
Texas cornerback Carrington Byndom will be matched up with Baylor's Kendall Wright and Byndom has shut down top-NFL prospect receivers in Ryan Broyles, Justin Blackmon and Jeff Fuller so far this season.
Pick: Texas 34, Baylor 31


Utah State (6-5) at New Mexico State (4-8)
New Mexico State is risking a postseason ban if it can't draw the required attendance for this game. The Aggies are about a 1,000 tickets short to meet the FBS-mandated attendance requirement. The Utah State Aggies are headed to the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl behind the play of true freshman quarterback Chuckie Keeton.
Pick: Utah State 35, New Mexico State 10


Louisiana-Monroe  (3-8)at Florida Atlantic (1-10)
FAU needs to send Howard Schnellenberger out with a win as this will be his last career game as a head coach. The ULM Warhawks have different plans with receivers Brent Leonard and Tavarese Maye. Florida Atlantic is the nation's worst offense and hasn't had any decent quarterback play all year to replace Jeff Van Camp.
Pick: ULM 28, FAU 13


Middle Tennessee (2-9) at North Texas (4-7)
Can the Blue Raiders upset the Mean Green to end the season? I think this matchup favors Middle Tennessee and quarterback Logan Kilgore. Neither team plays defense with North Texas ranked 105th in the nation and Mid. Tenn ranked 101st. If anything though, North Texas has one of the best punting games in the country.
Pick: Middle Tennessee 31, North Texas 27


Idaho (2-9) at Nevada (6-5)
Nevada has been a completely different offense once Cody Fajardo took over at QB as he can do everything Colin Kaepernick could do and may have saved Chris Ault's job. For Idaho, first year starter Brian Reader has had a disappointing senior season though the potential was there.
Pick: Nevada 49, Idaho 24

Troy (3-8) at Arkansas State (9-2)
Arkansas State could be the best defense in the Sun Belt over FIU this season. The Red Wolves are 9-2 and Sun Belt champions behind the play of QB Ryan Aplin, but also that relentless defense that's quick to the ball and averages 8 tackles for loss per game. Arkansas State has been stingy in both run and pass defense and Troy has struggled running the ball all year. The Trojans rank 116th in the nation in rushing and are one dimensional in the passing game.
Pick: Arkansas State 31, Troy 14

New Mexico (1-10) at No. 7 Boise State (10-1)
Kellen Moore's last game on the blue turf as Boise State's record-setting quarterback. Boise State, despite finishing 11-1 (after this win) probably won't be in a BCS game, but this is the Broncos' last chance to make an impression for style points and maybe, just maybe be a BCS at-large if Michigan were to not become eligible for the BCS and Oklahoma State were to beat Oklahoma and especially if Houston loses.
Pick: Boise State 47, New Mexico 7

BYU (8-3) at Hawaii (6-6)
Hawaii is currently 6-6 and needs a win to become bowl eligible while a point shaving scandal is being investigated on the islands. BYU should have Riley Nelson back for this game, which gives them a clear advantage over Hawaii. Unless BYU is jet lagged, the Cougars should be able to control this game.
Pick: BYU 34, Hawaii 17

Fresno State (4-8) at San Diego State (7-4)
Could San Diego State miss a bowl game? It's possible as the Mountain West only has four bowl slots for its five bowl eligible teams so the Aztecs have one last chance against Fresno State to make a statement to bowl committees in Ryan Lindley's last home game after a solid career.
Pick: San Diego State 42, Fresno State 24

Bowl Scenarios:
-If West Virginia AND Cincinnati win, West Virginia will win the Big East and likely go to the Orange Bowl.
-If Cincinnati loses, Louisville will win the Big East and likely go to the Orange Bowl
-If Cincinnati wins AND West Virginia loses, Cincinnati wins the Big East and will likely go to the Orange Bowl.
-If UCLA beats Oregon, UCLA will go to the Rose Bowl and Oregon will likely miss out on the BCS completely and head to the Alamo Bowl.
-If Houston wins, the Cougars will go to a BCS bowl game, likely the Sugar Bowl.
-If Georgia wins, LSU will likely drop to No. 2 in the BCS Standings with Alabama moving up to No. 1, which means LSU and Alabama will still play for the national title AND Georgia will play in the Sugar Bowl. The SEC will have three teams in the BCS. If LSU drops to No. 3, then it will be left out of the BCS Completely and likely head to the Capital One Bowl.
-If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State, Oklahoma will go to the FIesta Bowl while Oklahoma State will likely be left out of the BCS (unless Michigan fails to make the Top 14) and go to the Cotton Bowl.
-If Virginia Tech wins, it will go to the Orange Bowl and Clemson will likely go to the Champs Sports Bowl.
-If Clemson wins, it will go to the Orange Bowl and Virginia Tech will likely go to the Chick-fil-A Bowl.
-If Wisconsin wins, it will go to the Rose Bowl and Michigan State will likely go to the Outback Bowl.
-If Michigan State wins, it will go to the Rose Bowl and Wisconsin will likely go to the Capital One Bowl.
-If Pittsburgh beats Syracuse, the Panthers will become bowl eligible and be a candidate for the BBVA Compass Bowl.
-If Kansas State wins and Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, Kansas State will likely go to the Cotton Bowl. If Kansas State loses, the Wildcats will likely go to the Alamo Bowl.
-If No. 18 TCU beats UNLV and moves into the Top 16 of the BCS Standings AND ahead of the Big East Champion, it will receive an automatic BCS-bowl bid.
-If Texas beats Baylor, Texas will likely go to the Insight Bowl and Baylor will likely go to the Holiday Bowl.
-If Baylor beats Texas, Baylor will likely go to the Insight Bowl and Texas will likely go to the Holiday Bowl or Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas.
-If Hawaii beats BYU, Hawaii will go to the Hawaii Bowl. If Hawaii loses, it will not be bowl eligible.

MORE BOWL SCENARIOS: conference by conference, click here