AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl Pick

December 27, 2010

I've fallen to 5-3 in my bowl picks now after starting 5-0 but I couldn't be happier for Florida International and the way they fought back in that epic Little Caesars Pizza Bowl last night. That one heck of a game.
Now today, we've got the Independence Bowl at 5pm featuring two triple-option offenses and it's the last day of the year where we only have one game. Starting tomorrow, multiple games every day: two on Tuesday, three on Wednesday, four on Thursday and four on Friday before we get to the six games on New Year's Day.

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl: Georgia Tech (6-6) vs. Air Force (8-4), 5:00pm on ESPN2
Matchup Advantage
25 points riding on Air Force in Bowl Mania
Quickest bowl game of the year? Could be. We’ve got a pretty neat matchup of two triple-option offenses between Georgia Tech’s nation’s leading rushing offense vs. Air Force’s rushing offense that is ranked No. 2.
While the coach at Navy, Georgia Tech head coach Paul Johnson beat Air Force six times while claiming the Commander-in-Chief Trophy.
Georgia Tech fell to 6-6 this year after losing their best players from an already vastly-overrated team a year ago to the NFL. Tech had high hopes for an Orange Bowl win before their triple-option offense was completely shut down by Iowa. I always like to say that if you give a good defense and a good coaching staff enough time to prepare for the triple-option, it can be beat. The interesting part about this game is that there’s not much preparing to do if both teams run the same offense. Who knows, maybe one or both of these teams are preparing some special passing plays.
It’s no secret that the two defenses are going to decide this game and they’re practically going against their own offenses. I like Air Force to be a lot more disciplined defensively and I’ve never been a fan of Georgia Tech’s defense but they transitioned this year into a 3-4 defense under new coordinator Al Groh a 3-4 might make things difficult for Air Force quarterback Tim Jefferson to read. We’ll keep an eye on that.
Georgia Tech is minus a few players due to academic issues and will also miss a few players—including starting defensive end Anthony Egbuniwe and receiver Stephen Hill—for the first half for missing curfew.
I also don’t have any confirmation on whether Georgia Tech quarterback Joshua Nesbitt will play or not after breaking his forearm against Virginia Tech. If he’s not ready to go, in his place will be sophomore Tevin Washington who’s not as great a runner as Nesbitt but a much better passer.
Georgia Tech’s offense hasn’t been as prolific as it was last year and struggled against the better defenses like NC State, Clemson, Virginia Tech and Miami. Georgia Tech only averaged 15.5 points in those games and even less if you exclude non-offensive touchdowns.
I like Air Force’s defense which ranks 37th in the nation in points allowed but they held BYU to 14, Oklahoma to 27, San Diego State to 27, and Utah to 28. Where I get concerned is the 377 rushing yards Air Force gave up to TCU, 209 of them Ed Wesley.
Georgia Tech this year has moved Anthony Allen to the fullback spot to replace Jonathan Dwyer. The move has paid off since it lets Allen get north to south much faster than running east and west and he’s a powerful downhill runner. But, if I was Georgia Tech I’d move the ball east and west if up the middle doesn’t open up because Air Force doesn’t have that team speed to defend the edges consistently and you’re looking at some potential big plays there like Wesley was able to get for TCU on the edge.
Again, Georgia Tech is averaging 327 rushing yards per game and Air Force is second with 317.9 rushing yards per game. Air Force quarterback Tim Jefferson did have a 1,000 yard passing season with 10 touchdowns to go along with a team-high 15 rushing touchdowns and Georgia Tech could be playing with Tevin Washington, the better passer, at quarterback.
If these two teams don’t force turnovers and it becomes a back-and-forth game, it might just be a pass play that gets or sets up the win. If it comes down to a field goal, Scott Blair for Georgia Tech is one of the nation’s best while Air Force’s Erik Soderberg is hitting just 50% of his attempts and is 0-4 from beyond 40 yards.
But I like Air Force’s defense and discipline. They’ll execute on offense with Jefferson, Asher Clark and Jared Tew.
Prediction: Air Force 35, Georgia Tech 27
Players to watch: Air Force RB Asher Clark/Georgia Tech DE Anthony Egbuniwe

Recap from Sunday's epic Little Caesars Bowl

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl, Dec. 26
Prediction: Toledo 27, Florida International 23
What an epic game and congratulations to Florida International on winning its first ever bowl game. Just the reaction at the end was amazing. FIU coach Mario Cristobal exhausted and out of breath in his interview and finishing by saying, “That is awesome! That is awesome!” That’s the excitement of college football. You don’t get this in the NFL or in any other sport. ESPN’s JC Pearson said it best, “That is what college football is all about.”
FIU’s offense got off to a slow start but a 17-point deficit faded away as the Golden Panthers scored two touchdowns in five minutes on a TY Hilton 89-yard kick return and an interception that resulted in an eventual touchdown.
FIU took a 31-24 lead, but Toledo’s QB Terrance Owens is really something. I was so impressed with him against Bowling Green and Central Michigan and after some interceptions today he took Toledo on what was almost a game-winning drive as he dove into the end-zone on a zone-read play and Toledo converted the two-point conversion to take a 32-31 lead. But the Rockets left 1:31 on the clock and FIU took it downfield, converted a 4th-and-17 on a hook-and-ladder and set up a game-winning 34 yard field goal for Jack Griffin to win it. What a game.
And people say that bowl games like these don’t matter. This is college football. I love it.
Result: Florida International 34, Toledo 32
My MVP: TY Hilton, FIU/Adonis Thomas, Toledo