Friday, November 4, 2011

College Football Week 5

September 30, 2010

Wake me up when September ends is the college football motto for the first four weeks. Many teams play cupcake non-conference games, some teams venture into conference play, while others pull of huge upsets in marquee non-conference matchups. Now it's Week 5, and most teams have completed their non-conference play, and it's time for the real season to start. October proves the legitimacy of many teams, notably this week: Stanford, Oklahoma, North Carolina State, and Michigan State.

Headed into October...
One ACC team is undefeated and it's NOT a perennial power.
There are no Big East teams in the Top 25 while the WAC AND Mountain West have TWO.
Six Big 12 teams are undefeated and Texas is NOT one of them.


Week 4
Rankings

So let's take a look at the first weekend of October's matchups.
Upset Alert goes out to..
(probability of happening, scale of 5)
Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M (3/5)
Miami at Clemson (2/5)
Oklahoma vs. Texas (3/5)
Wisconsin at Michigan State (2/5)
North Carolina vs. East Carolina (4/5)
NC State vs. Virginia Tech (5/5)
Michigan at Indiana (2/5)
Oregon State vs. Arizona State (4/5)
USC vs. Washington (2/5)
Boston College vs. Notre Dame (4/5)
Oregon vs. Stanford (3/5)
Iowa vs. Penn State (2/5)

Thursday Night Football: Texas A&M at Oklahoma State
Both of these schools are undefeated on the last day of September. Texas A&M was expected to finally compete in the Big 12 South while Oklahoma State was expected to begin it's decline. Instead, Oklahoma State's new Air Raid offense with former Houston offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen is averaging almost a point a minute with new quarterback Brandon Weedon and runningback Kendall Hunter is back to his 2008 form after struggling with injuries last season. The field being more spread out helps Hunter in his runs up-the-middle as he only has one linebacker to beat.
Texas A&M has a lot of weapons on offense and it all starts with the quarterback Jerrod Johnson. Johnson struggled throwing four interceptions last week to Florida International in a game where A&M had to rally for three touchdowns in the fourth quarter to win. Johnson has Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael in the backfield along with Ryan Tannehill, Jeff Fuller, Uzoma Nwachuku and Ryan Swope. He's got a plethora of reliable guys to throw to and two good backs.
These were two of the nation's worst defenses last year too, but the Oklahoma State defense is improving in it's second year under Bill Young while the Texas A&M defense is switching to a 3-4 and that figures to confuse Brandon Weedon and the offensive line to pick up blitzes.
Oklahoma State is #2 in the nation in offense and you have to believe they'll stay up high, and Texas A&M is 10th in defense, and you have to be skeptical about that number. They have the returning sack leader Von Miller and more experience as a unit, but is the A&M defense improved that much? This game against Oklahoma State will reveal the answer.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 42, Texas A&M 34
Result: OKST 38, TAMU 35

Saturday
First thing's first.
RED RIVER RIVALRY: TEXAS LONGHORNS VS. OKLAHOMA SOONERS
Texas is coming off that humiliating, embarrassing, disgusting, and every other word there is for their performance. It was tough to watch last week, but what made me mad more than dropped passes was the Texas crowd leaving early because they couldn't watch anymore. What kind of support is that? Leaving the team out to dry. I was disgusted that I was able to hear the crowd's "UCLA" chant through the TV. So, that same crowd will make the drive up to Dallas.
Texas and Oklahoma never seem to play well the week before they play each other. Last week, Oklahoma squeaked by Cincinnati 31-29 when they were only able to win because DJ Woods botched a punt. Oklahoma should have lost that game.
In my mind though, Oklahoma is one of the best teams in the nation. On paper, they are the better team. They have just yet to show it and are too inconsistent early on.
Both of these defenses are good and Oklahoma has more firepower on offense. Landry Jones can throw to Kenny Stills, Brandon Caleb, Cameron Kenney, and most notably Ryan Broyles. DeMarco Murray is also a big receiving threat out of the backfield. The key for Texas as always is to stop the run, which they struggled to last week against UCLA. If you look at the years past, in 2007 Murray ran for -2 yards, and Texas won. In 2008, Murray ran for just 6 yards, and Texas won. In 2007, Murray ran all over Texas and Oklahoma won. Last week, Texas gave up over 220 rushing yards to UCLA, but now they're tweaking the defense a little bit. Alex Okafor, playing the Buck position, is moving inside to defensive tackle, and Emmanuel Acho is moving from middle linebacker to the strongside, and I expect to see more of true freshman Jackson Jeffcoat, maybe used in the Buck.
Offensively, Texas won't be able to get the running game going. Oklahoma's front seven is their strength while Texas' secondary is the best in the nation. Texas needs to take away DeMarco Murray and force Jones to throw the ball. As for the Texas offense, they are almost forced into throwing from the very beginning. It's the third consecutive year that Texas has not been able to establish a running game. That puts a lot more on the shoulders of Garrett Gilbert. His receivers need to help him out. True freshman Mike Davis was injured last week, he should be able to play and he's Gilbert's top target. Malcolm Williams and James Kirkendoll need to show up and be reliable while tight ends Barrett Matthews and Greg Smith need to become receiving threats, both have dropped way too many passes this season.
Either way, Greg Davis might spread the field more and look to take advantage of a shaky Oklahoma secondary and thrust Gilbert into running the old system with Colt McCoy.
Prediction: Oklahoma 31, Texas 24
I will never root to be more wrong.
Result: Oklahoma 28, Texas 20

Virginia Tech at North Carolina State
NC State is the only undefeated team in the ACC. Does this make them the new favorite? They are in the rankings now but still below Miami and now they play preseason favorite Virginia Tech.
Russell Wilson has looked outstanding this season, I was able to watch him against Cincinnati and Georgia Tech. Just think if he's 6'3" instead instead of 5"11, NFL scouts would be drooling over him.
NC State had questions about the run game coming into the season, but true freshman Mustafa Greene has answered a lot of those questions. The defense is also a lot better than anyone projected. I didn't have a radar on the Wolf Pack at all in August, didn't think they would be any good.
If they beat Virginia Tech, they have the schedule in their favor to potentially go undefeated. If that happens, where will NC State rank?
With all that said, I don't believe NC State wins against Virginia Tech. It's going to be the first legitimate defense they play and Virginia Tech is on a mission to continue being redeemed for losses against Boise State and James Madison. They routed East Carolina and shut out Boston College. Explosive players everywhere on offense for VT, even though Ryan Williams will sit out another game with his hamstring injury. I'm just not completely sold on NC State yet.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, NC State 20
Result: Virginia Tech 41, NC State 30

Florida at Alabama
Here's the big rematch of the SEC Championship Game two years in a row. But don't expect this to be a championship quality matchup. I don't think Florida has the personnel this year to hang with Alabama. The only way to beat Alabama is to get behind the inexperienced secondary which stepped up big in the second half against Ryan Mallett and Arkansas. Florida doesn't have a deep threat on its roster outside of Deonte Thompson. Chris Rainey is still suspended and Jeffery Demps has been nursing his foot, but will play. He's the wildcard for Florida. And also true freshman QB Trey Newton being used in the wildcat and sometimes lined up at receiver. Newton had 6 touchdowns last week against Kentucky. Don't expect the same kind of production against Alabama, and I'm sure Nick Saban and Kirby Smart have a bunch of ways planned to prevent Newton from doing damage.
Florida's defense is down a notch last year after numerous departures to the NFL including a surprising early entry to the draft by free safety Major Wright. The defense also lost Brandon Spikes, Carlos Dunlap, Jermaine Cunningham, and Joe Haden among others. It's similar to Alabama's situation having to replace so many different defensive starters, but the Crimson Tide have reloaded with better talent.
Like many people have said, if Alabama beat Florida with Tim Tebow, then they'll definitely beat Florida without Tim Tebow.
Florida doesn't have an answer for Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson and we know Jenoris Jenkins will be matched up with Julio Jones, but who will cover Darius Hanks and Marquis Maze? There's not much depth in the Florida secondary.
The offense finally came alive, but John Brantley has not lived up to the hype of when he was recruited. This would be a great game to prove himself, but he's not going to get a lot of help.
Prediction: Alabama 34, Florida 19
Result: Alabama 31, Florida 6

Stanford at Oregon
Both of these teams are ranked in the AP Top Ten for the first time in this matchup, Oregon at #4 and Stanford at #9. I have Stanford at #15 and the coaches have the Cardinal ranked at #13.
Oregon's offense is ever changing, but the philosophy is still the same. Score early, fast, and often. Without Jeremiah Masoli, the Ducks have kept on swimming with Darron Thomas beating out Nate Costa for the starting job and has done a tremendous job running the zone-read and the Ducks have incorporated more and more option into the offense. The key to their offense is the misdirection and speed and explosiveness.
The reason I have never looked at Oregon has a national title contender is because they don't play defense. I don't know if I'm the only to see that or not, but everyone only cares about their offense, when this year and last year they have been weak in defense. Stanford won this matchup 51-42 last year thanks to 223 rushing yards by Toby Gerhart, but Gerhart's not there anymore.
Stanford is the better team, but I think the speed of Oregon's offense might be too much for them. Stanford has the better defense, but there are areas where they lack the elite athleticism. Inside linebacker Owen Maricic is the best athlete as he also plays fullback and we've all seen the highlight of him scoring two touchdowns in 16 seconds last week. If this was a tough hard-nosed battle, Stanford wins, but I think Oregon's finesse will give Stanford problems.
Stanford on the other hand, if they can old Oregon under 30 points, they win. Stanford has the best quarterback in the nation in Andrew Luck and he should carve up the Oregon secondary. Not a lot put on him last year as they rode Toby Gerhart, but now with the keys to the offense, Luck has weapons with Chris Owusu, Doug Baldwin, and Griff Whalen. I expect Luck to have a field day with Oregon's defense, but if it's a shootout, Oregon will be too fast, and the game is of course in Autzen Stadium, no doubt in my mind that that is the toughest stadium to play in in all of college football.
I'll be rooting hard for Andrew Luck, but he can't do it alone.
Prediction: Oregon 44, Stanford 42
Result: Oregon 52, Stanford 31

Penn State at Iowa
The way things have gone, Penn State-Iowa is quickly becoming a big rivalry. Iowa has crushed national title dreams of Penn State as of late. Now the roles are reversed and Penn State is the underdog. Iowa has been my pick to win the Big Ten and I continue to stand by that pick. Therefore, I can't see Penn State upsetting Iowa. Back in August though I was ready to mark this a sure loss for the Nittany Lions, but the way the team is starting to gel together, Iowa is in for a tough one.
It all comes down to Evan Royster. His 'breakout' game against Temple needs to carry over against Iowa. Everyone's calling it a breakout game for Royster, but I think it was just against Temple. We'll see.
The Penn State secondary has steadily improved and so has the pass rush with sophomore Pete Massaro seeing more playing time. That secondary will have to step up again and Penn State needs to get pressure on Iowa to force Ricky Stanzi into making mistakes. Stanzi is a very underrated quarterback, but he does throw a lot of interceptions, which he has cut down on this year, but putting him under pressure causes turnovers.
The Iowa defense is very stout, but Adrian Clayborn has yet to record a sack this year. Iowa has potential All-Big Ten defenders all throughout the front seven and Tyler Sash in the secondary.
Iowa has weapons all over the field with Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Marvin McNutt, and Adam Robinson. The loss of Tony Moeaki at tight end but the senior Allen Reisner has filled in nicely. Iowa has a very balanced offensive attack, a great defense, and always a good special teams unit. Boise State, Iowa, and Oklahoma are the most balanced teams in the country.
Prediction: Iowa 27, Penn State 17
Result: Iowa 24, Penn State 3

Again this week, predictions for My Top 25
Actual Result in ( )
1. Alabama vs. Florida
ALA 34, FLA 19 (Alabama, 31-6)
2. Ohio State at Illinois
OSU 42, ILL 17 (Ohio State 24-13)
3. Boise State at New Mexico State
Boise 52, N. Mex. State 3 (Boise State 59-0)
4. TCU at Colorado State
TCU 45, Colorado St 10 (TCU 27-0)
5. Nebraska
6. Oregon vs. Stanford
ORE 44, STAN 42 (Oregon 52-31)
7. Oklahoma vs. TEXAS
OU 31, TEX 24 (Oklahoma 28-20)
8. Florida at Alabama
ALA 34, FLA 19
9. Wisconsin at Michigan State
WIS 31, MSU 20 (Michigan State 34-24)
10. Arkansas
11. Auburn vs. Lousiana-Monroe
AUB 42, ULM 3 (Auburn 52-3)
12. Arizona
13. Iowa vs. Penn State
IOWA 27, PSU 17 (Iowa 24-3)
14. Utah
15. Stanford
ORE 44, STAN 42
16. LSU vs. Tennessee
 LSU 38, TENN 17 (LSU 16-14)
17. South Carolina
18. USC vs. Washington
USC 34, UW 27 (Washington 32-31)
19. TEXAS vs. Oklahoma
OU 31, TEX 24
20. Miami at Clemson
MIA 31, CLEM 28 (Miami 30-21)
21. Missouri
22. Michigan at Indiana
MICH 52, IND 38 (Michigan 42-35)
23. Penn State at Iowa
IOWA 27, PSU 17 
24. North Carolina State vs. Virginia Tech
 VT 31, NCST 20 (Virginia Tech 41-30)
25. Nevada at UNLV
NEV 55, UNLV 13 (Nevada 44-26)

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