Little Caesars Pizza Bowl Pick

December 26, 2010

I started the 2010 Bowl Season with a 5-0 record and have since lost two straight picks. Time for me to get back on track tonight with Florida International or Toledo in the Little Caesars Bowl. Will the Sun Belt dominance over the MAC continue?

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl: Florida International (6-6) vs. Toledo (8-4), 8:30pm on ESPN
Matchup Advantage
Bowl Mania
The Florida International Golden Panthers are bowling for the first time in school history. They finish at 6-6 and win the Sun Belt Conference despite starting the season 0-4 against a tough non-conference schedule. They hung around with Rutgers, Texas A&M, Maryland and Pittsburgh which set them up to go 6-2 in conference play against a weak Sun Belt. Their only respected win my eyes is the 52-35 win over reigning Sun Belt champ, Troy. Despite all that, FIU was still relegated to the conference’s third-tier bowl affiliation with Troy and Middle Tennessee getting the top two spots. These Golden Panthers aren’t getting any respect so I wonder how much respect they get from Toledo.
I am going to admit right now that I did not watch a single Florida International game this year so I honestly don’t know too much about them. Best defense in the Sun Belt, very good defensive team, they’ve got Florida kids so team speed should be there. That’s about all I know. Last year, I watched one FIU game and Wesley Carroll, their quarterback, was not good, but I have not seen him play this year. His 15 touchdowns and 13 interceptions may or may not tell the whole story.
For Toledo, I watched them in week two lose to Arizona 41-2, but then play great late against Bowling Green and Central Michigan. In those two games I was able to see their new quarterback, redshirt freshman Terrance Owens, who I hear they are very high on. After watching him, I’m high on him, too. The first game against Bowling Green after Austin Dantin was injured, Owens just had every throw on the money and has one of the strongest left-handed throwing arms I’ve seen. The guy is special. Another guy that he’s throwing to is pretty special, too—sophomore receiver Eric Page. Page is one of the nation’s most explosive players and for Toledo, has 70 more catches than the team’s second-leading receiver, running back Adonis Thomas, not to mention he has returned three kickoffs for touchdowns as well. Not many teams, especially in the MAC as Toledo went 7-1 in conference play, have had success locking down Page. That’s going to be a key for Florida International, but Toledo can also establish the run with Thomas. At this point, I don’t know much about FIU’s offense.
These two teams played last year, but it was a different Toledo team with senior quarterback Aaron Opelt. Now, they’re led by a freshman. Toledo head coach Tim Beckman has created an excellent turnaround in the Toledo program in year two. Toledo won this matchup 41-31 in Miami last year.
Central Florida is 0-3 in bowl games, so the so-called “mid-majors” of the state of Florida, UCF and FIU have never won a bowl game. Central Florida plays Georgia in the Autozone Liberty Bowl on New Year’s Eve—until then, I expect that trend to continue.
I often compare saying that the Sun Belt is to the MAC as what the SEC is to the Big Ten. Dominant. But I’ll take the MAC team in this one.
Prediction: Toledo 27, Florida International 23

RECAP
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl, Dec. 24
Prediction: Hawaii 49, Tulsa 37
This game can easily be described by the stat sheet. 542 total yards for Hawaii and 534 for Tulsa, but six turnovers on Hawaii’s side.
We knew going in that this would be a back-and-forth game with these total offenses and two weaker defenses. That showed late in the third quarter when the two teams combined for four touchdowns in only two minutes and thirty-one seconds of play. I don’t think anyone anticipated Hawaii quarterback Bryant Moniz to throw four interceptions.  That was the story, Tulsa got extra possessions and capitalized, scoring at will.
Tulsa do-it-all man Damaris Johnson broke the all-time record for most all-purpose yards—and still has a year of eligibility left. Johnson averaged 21.7 yards per touch while Tulsa quarterback GJ Kinne averaged 20 yards a completion. It was big play after big play for Tulsa and Hawaii couldn’t tackle in space.
One more stat, Tulsa had -15 rushing yards in the first half but finished with 188.
Result: Tulsa 62, Hawaii 35