Week 7 Thoughts

October 15, 2010

Going into Week 7 of the college football season and four very notable programs have lost two games in a row: Texas, Penn State, USC, and Florida. Texas goes into Lincoln, Nebraska as a big underdog, Penn State has a much needed off week, and USC and Florida are right back on Upset Alert.

Which of these four teams will have the most successful season? I want to say Texas, but if their play doesn’t improve they won’t beat Kansas State, Oklahoma State, or Texas A&M. Penn State is looking at a 6-6 season at best, maybe 5-7 unless they can go into Ohio State and play well or pull out a win at home against Michigan and/or Michigan State. Joe Paterno is three wins away from 400 for his career. Right now, three wins looks like very far away.
USC faces Cal this weekend and could lose its third straight game. Florida should be on alert for Mississippi State entering The Swamp this weekend. Florida has a tough SEC schedule ahead, so logically USC is on the best path for a successful season, although it won’t be successful in terms of USC standards. USC has the potential to knock off teams in the Pac-10.

Anyway, this is the last slate of games this weekend before the first official BCS Standings will be released on Sunday night at 8:15 on ESPN. Yes you guessed right, I have a gripe with the BCS again this year. You can read about it by clicking here.

But anyway on to the games I want to talk about a little bit for this weekend. At the bottom I have my usual Top 25 and my predictions for them.

The Noon and night games aren’t that intriguing this Saturday. Missouri and Texas A&M is the only big Noon game, maybe Clemson-Maryland will be a good one.
The night games are a bit dull too with Ohio State-Wisconsin being the big one, but also Mississippi State-Florida and ESPN is airing a pair of late games with Alabama hosting Ole Miss and Oregon State travelling to Washington in an Upset Alert.
Nevada and Boise State will also be broadcast on espn3.com as late games.

The bulk of this weekend’s great matchups are in the 3:30 games. Five great ones.

3:30 Kickoffs
Texas at Nebraska
Bold. That’s what it takes. Don’t be afraid to make a mistake. That’s why I pronounced On-Air here at Penn State that my Texas Longhorns will beat Nebraska. I said the same of South Carolina over Alabama and LSU over Florida last week and both of those paid off. Time for Texas to finally step up for me.
Nebraska will not win the Big 12 Conference and Texas will be the reason why again.
The buzz in Nebraska has been that they’ve been waiting for this game since the end of last year’s Big 12 Championship Game where Texas won on a controversial last second field goal. I don’t know why it was controversial, the officials got the call right. But the motto in Nebraska has “Wear Red, Be Loud, Beat Texas.”
Texas’s last three wins over Nebraska have been by a total of six points, so these two teams always play each other twice. This year was the toughest, but now there’s no Ndamukong Suh on the Nebraska side, but more importantly, no Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley on the Texas side.
The Texas offense has sputtered and the defense has been good not great with too many mistakes. The game is in Lincoln, and Texas is coming off the bye week and just lost to Oklahoma, but Coach Mack Brown has never lost the next game after the Oklahoma game, and my Texas Longhorns won’t lose three straight games. It hasn’t happened since 1999.
Everyone is raving over Nebraska freshman QB Taylor Martinez and his ability to run the ball. Nebraska is still the great defensive team they were a year ago, but they now can balance that with an offense that can actually score, and score in abundance. It’s tough to slow down with Martinez running a zone-read offensive scheme.
The Texas run defense that has been so great in the past got sliced apart by both UCLA and Oklahoma in losses. Those were physical running attacks though and now Texas gets to face a zone-read which they have always been good at stopping. Last year Nebraska ran for 67 yards on 35 carries.
With the bye week, Will Muschamp will have something dialed up to stop Taylor Martinez. He will look like the freshman he looked like against South Dakota in this game. Texas will force Martinez to beat them with his arm, and even last year Nebraska’s top receiver Niles Paul was quiet because of poor quarterback play.
The key will be getting pressure on Martinez, but also keeping him contained. If he runs wild, game over. I’ll give him one run, he’ll break out for one touchdown and that’ll be it.
The Texas offense cannot make mistakes. The Nebraska defense is still one of the best in the nation and the Texas passing game has struggled to combine with a nonexistent running game. Nebraska has two shutdown corners in Prince Amukamara and and a dangerous safety in DeJon Gomes. They intercepted Colt McCoy three times last year.
Garrett Gilbert’s decision making has been good so far, he just hasn’t gotten a lot of help from the offensive line and his receivers. Mike Davis is expected to play and James Kirkendoll and Malcolm Williams finally showed up offensively. Tre’ Newton out of the backfield was Texas’ big weapon last year, but he’s still battling a hip pointer but I expect to see a little more of him. Texas needs to utilize it’s speed in the backfield with Fozzy Whittaker and DJ Monroe. Speaking of Monroe, special teams are going to be huge. Special teams win close ball games. Nebraska has the best kicker in the Big 12 with Alex Henery, and Texas has an explosive kick returner with DJ Monroe and also Marquise Goodwin who’s emerging as a more reliable receiver and get him in open space and it’s over.
I expect the Texas offense to be better, but not great. Texas just has to avoid defensive breakdowns. It’s been the case so far this season and will be the case again that the Texas defense will have to keep the offense in the game and I believe they will. I also see Texas finding the end zone on a couple of big plays.
Texas needs this game more, and these seniors deserve more than losing three straight and going to the Alamo Bowl. It’s time to step it up.
Texas had an extra week to prepare for this game and good coaches always win following a bye week. Mack Brown is a good coach, Will Muschamp is a great defensive coordinator.
If Garrett Gilbert is going to be asked to carry the team on his shoulders, the season will go downhill from here although I’d like to see Gilbert be a little more mobile and run a little more to open things up.
Prediction: Texas wins 17-13
X Factor: Texas ATH DJ Monroe; Nebraska QB Taylor Martinez
Result: TEXAS 20, Nebraska 13

Arkansas at Auburn
The SEC West is Auburn’s to lose. I mentioned back in August that Auburn would go undefeated until the Alabama matchup in November. I’m going to stick with that, but this game looks tougher for Auburn than it did back in August because of Auburn’s recent defensive struggles.
Auburn is 91st in the nation in pass defense. Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett averages 350 passing yards per game and has the nation’s #1 group of receivers.
Auburn’s lost three of the last four meetings with Arkansas.
This is a great quarterback matchup of differing styles between Mallett and Auburn QB Cam Newton. Mallett was once a Heisman contender and has fallen off the radar while Newton has continued to rise every week.  Both are big quarterbacks, Mallett at 6’7” and Newton at 6’6” but Mallett has the big arm and Newton has the big running ability. He ran for four touchdowns last week in the last second win over Kentucky and carried the ball almost every play on Auburn’s game-winning drive.
To protect Newton, Auburn needs to get true freshman running back Michael Dyer more involved while Arkansas’s Ronnie Wingo has been lost from the running game as of late and sophomore Knile Davis has been explosive at times.
The Auburn pass rush has to help out the Auburn secondary. Auburn’s top corner Neiko Thorpe has not played well in the games I have watched since his outstanding performance in last year’s bowl game.
The key to Auburn winning will be defensive tackle Nick Fairley who has emerged as an All-SEC defensive lineman. On any down he can penetrate the line and he needs to collapse the pocket to force Mallett outside where he struggles with his accuracy.
Prediction: Auburn wins 33-27
X Factor: Auburn QB Cam Newton; Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett
Result: Auburn 65, Arkansas 43

Iowa at Michigan
Michigan’s questions about how good their offense is when Denard Robinson isn’t on his A-game still needs to be answered. Despite his struggles, Robinson still led the Michigan offense on drives before turning the ball over, twice in the end-zone.
The fact of the matter is Robinson can’t do a thing to help his defense. Not even keeping the other offense off the field because when Robinson is at the top of his game he is electrifying and scores on big plays. The best defense for Michigan is to sustain long offensive drives. The Michigan defense also is so susceptible to giving up big plays. Michigan State got big play after big play. Michigan’s defense ranks second to last in the nation.
Coming into the Big House is my Big Ten favorite the Iowa Hawkeyes. Since I picked them to win the Big Ten, they can’t afford a loss here to an inferior Michigan squad. Iowa QB Ricky Stanzi is third in the nation in pass effiency and Iowa boasts the nation’s No. 1 scoring defense.
Michigan lost this game by a close 30-28 last year. Denard Robinson was used a lot as a wildcat quarterback in that game and ran for 49 yards, and a short touchdown in the fourth quarter. Now, already in the seventh game of the year, Robinson is nine yards away from 1,000 rushing yards and we’re barely past the midway point of the season.
Now Robinson goes against the Iowa defense and that defensive line of Adrian Clayborn, Christian Ballard, Karl Klug, and Broderick Binns; easily the best defensive line in the country. The key to Michigan State slowing down Robinson last week was getting pressure. I don’t think Iowa will have any trouble applying pressure. Robinson couldn’t break off any big runs because they forced him to run before he wanted to, before he could choose his own lane and forced him to run through holes that were quickly plugged. Iowa will do the same.
And lets not forget that Michigan’s poor defense has given up 500+ yards three times this year. Iowa just went over 500 yards of total offense against Ball State in it’s last game and now the Hawkeyes come off the bye week where I’m sure they have worked on ways to solve Denard Robinson while Michigan won’t be able to solve Iowa’s passing game with Marvin McNutt, Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, and Allen Reisner emerging as a top-target tight end to fill the void left by Tony Moeaki.
Prediction: Iowa 35, Michigan 14
X-Factor: Iowa S Tyler Sash; Michigan QB Denard Robinson
Result: Iowa 38, Michigan 28

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech
A classic Big 12 shootout is about to take place Saturday. If you like offense, watch this game. Both teams have average defenses with some great players on that side of the ball, but as a unit aren’t capable of stopping explosive offenses. Oklahoma State has the better defense of the two but are undermanned and facing injuries. The man for Texas Tech to watch defensively aside from defensive tackle Colby Whitlock is Brian Duncan. Duncan moved from defensive end to middle linebacker.
Texas Tech QB Taylor Potts was just voted AT&T All-America Player of the Week as he went 42-of-59 for 462 yards and four touchdowns last week in the 45-38 win over Baylor. The only time Potts has ever struggled was with pressure getting to him which was mainly evident this year and last year when the Texas pass rush would force him to make errant throws. To help Oklahoma State’s secondary, defensive end Ugo Chinasa, one of the best sack men in the conferene, has to be able to get to Potts.
Potts has a surplus of offensive weapons with Baron Batch and Eric Stephens in the backfield with him, and Lyle Leong, Alex Torres, Detron Lewis, Tramain Swindall, and Jacoby Franks. With a lack of depth in the secondary it’s going to be tough for Oklahoma State to keep up.
On the other side, Oklahoma State has a guy that’s reminding a lot of Big 12 fans of former Texas Tech great Michael Crabtree. Last year Hubert Anyiam filled in nicely for the suspended Dez Bryant, and now Justin Blackmon has emerged as the go-to receiver for Oklahoma State QB Brandon Weedon. Through five games, Oklahoma State (expected to have a down year) is undefeated and Blackmon has emerged as a Biletnikoff candidate with 47 catches for 748 yards and 12 touchdowns already.
Texas Tech’s defense allowed more than 400 yards on occasion and Oklahoma State boasts the third best scoring offense in the nation. This is the same Tech defense that gave up 52 points in a loss to Iowa State.
It’s another must-win game for Tech being in an unfamiliar place in the basement of the Big 12 South Division and Oklahoma State is looking to improve to 6-0 and improve on its national ranking of 20.
The game is in Lubbock, where Tech is very good and visiting opponents rarely are.
Prediction: Texas Tech wins 49-42
X-Factor: Oklahoma State DE Ugo Chinasa; Texas Tech QB Taylor Potts
Result: Oklahoma State 34, Texas Tech 17

Prime Time
Ohio State at Wisconsin
Wisconsin is very good in night games at home. Ohio State is pretty good on the road.
Last year the Buckeyes won 31-13, but needed three nonoffensive touchdowns to win. Terrelle Pryor struggled badly in this game both passing and running. The Ohio State offense totaled eight first downs and 184 total yards.
Now Ohio State comes in ranked No. 1 in both polls and are squarely on Upset Alert against a hungry Wisconsin team who took out a lot of anger on Minnesota last week after losing to Michigan State.
This game features two vastly improved quarterbacks with Pryor and Wisconsin’s Scott Tolzien. Pryor has become a pass-first quarterback and his footwork over the summer has been the key to his evolution into a legit NFL quarterback. Pryor is coming off of his best career passing performance last week against Illinois.
Pryor needs to build off of that and Tolzien needs to limit mistakes. He has been very efficient this year, completing 70% of his passes with only two interceptions. Last year his two interceptions, both returned for touchdowns, cost Wisconsin the game when they had Ohio State on the ropes.
Of course passing isn’t Wisconsin’s game. Their downhill power running game with John Clay also struggled. Clay had 59 yards on 20 carries last year. This year he has topped 100 yards in every game except the lone loss against Michigan State. If Clay doesn’t get 100 yards, Wisconsin loses. And now the Badgers have added James White to the running game to add a shifty back. Both White and Clay topped 100 yards last week.
Wisconsin needs to be able to manage the clock and pound the ball to keep Pryor and Buckeyes offense off the field. Wisconsin has struggled somewhat in pass defense, which might be a key to point out. For Ohio State, the defense has been good, but not great and is made up of no-name guys that play together as a unit. Cameron Heyward, Ross Homan, and Chimdi Chekwa anchor their levels of the defense, respectively.
One key is that the Ohio State linebackers are a bit undersized and we’ll see if Wisconsin’s line can allow the backs to reach the second level.
With all that said, Ohio State has the potential to lose this but I don’t see it happening.
Prediction: Ohio State wins 31-17
X-Factor: Ohio State QB Terrelle Pryor; Wisconsin RB John Clay
Result: Wisconsin 31, Ohio State 18


Upset Picks:
Purdue over Minnesota...check
Texas over Nebraska...check
SMU over Navy (X)
Washington over Oregon State
Texas Tech over Oklahoma State (X)

Upset Alert goes out to…
Missouri, Clemson, Auburn, Iowa, USC, South Carolina, Ohio State, Florida, and Nevada


Predictions for My Top 25
#1 Ohio State 31, #15 Wisconsin 17
Result: WIS 31, OSU 18
#2 Boise State 56, San Jose State 3
#4 Alabama 34, Ole Miss 20
#5 TCU 41, BYU 10
Result: TCU 31, BYU 3
#6 Nebraska 13, #23 Texas 17
Result: TEX 20, NEB 13
#7 Oklahoma 49, Iowa State 14
Result: OU 52, ISU 0
#8 Auburn 33, #10 Arkansas 28
Result: AUB 65, ARK 43
#9 South Carolina 35, Kentucky 20
Result: UK 31, SCAR 28
#11 LSU 42, McNeese State 0
Result: LSU 32, MCNS 10
#12 Utah 45, Wyoming 10
Result: Utah 30, WYO 6
#13 Iowa 35, Michigan 14
Result: Iowa 38, Mich 28
#14 Michigan State 27, Illinois 9
Result: MSU 26, ILL 6
#16 Arizona 45, Washington State 10
Result: ARIZ 24, WSU 7
#18 Florida State 30, Boston College 17
Result: FSU 24, BC 19
#19 Missouri 34, Texas A&M 24
Result: Mizzou 30, A&M 9
#20 Florida 23, Mississippi State 21
Result: MSST 10, FLA 7
#21 Oklahoma State 42, Texas Tech 49
Result: OKST 34, TTU 17
#22 Nevada 49, Hawaii 30
#24 Virginia Tech 34, Wake Forest 24
Result: VT 52, WF 21
#25 West Virginia 27, South Florida 10
Result: WVU 20, USF 6