Friday, November 4, 2011

BCS Championship Game Preview

January 10, 2011

Here we go, the big finish. Under Armour vs. NIKE. Auburn vs. Oregon. Cam Newton vs. LaMichael James. We're about to have a great finish to the 2010 college football season. Let's get it started.


Tostitos BCS National Championship Game: Auburn (13-0) vs. Oregon (12-0), 8:30pm on ESPN
Auburn
Auburn is a team of destiny. That's what I'll say. Now let me also say this, I said Texas was a team of destiny last year and Colt McCoy got hurt and that was the end of that, so Cam Newton better watch out. Newton accounts for 63% of Auburn's offense.
Auburn will looking to become the 5th consecutive BCS Champion from the SEC.
We all know about Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton and what he can do. I'm glad this game is here now because I got tired of hearing Cam Newton this and Cam Newton that. This game will be all about guys on Auburn's defense: Nick Fairley, the dominant defensive tackle, and Zac Etheridge, the captain of the secondary.Both of those guys are going to make plays for Auburn to win this game.
Auburn's defense is susceptible to giving up big plays. After this 37 day layoff, we'll see what kind of adjustments they've made. It's really all on this coaching staff. I want to say that team's defenses always improve for their bowl game but teams like East Carolina and Michigan disprove that theory. That said, team's offenses are always better for the bowl game.
Cam Newton's got three playmaking receivers with Darvin Adams, Terrell Zachary and Emory Blake. Watch out for the true freshman running back Michael Dyer.
Auburn is so much bigger than Oregon on the offensive line and the defensive line, they can't pull a Wisconsin, they have to take advantage and win the battle at the line of scrimmage.
Wes Byrum is one of the best kickers in the nation, IF it's close, I'm putting everything on his leg.
Oregon
If you've followed my views on college football all year long, you'll recall that all year I have not bought into Oregon. And I still don't. I just don't believe they're one of the top two teams in the country. I firmly believe that both Boise State and TCU would beat the Ducks. Every time I think of Oregon, I think of what could have been had Cal's kicker not false started himself and then missed the game-winning field goal. Oregon wouldn't be here if not for that 15-13 win over Cal. They haven't played anyone but Stanford all year and the Stanford game was a mismatch because they're just not as fast as Oregon. So, with all that said, I have disrespected this Oregon team all year long, so the chances of them winning this game increase just because of that.
We all know about the offense with LaMichael James, Darron Thomas and Jeff Maehl. David Paulsen is also one of the best receiving tight ends in the nation. Oregon gains a nation's best 537.5 yards of offense per game. Get this: Oregon has had 44 drives of two minutes or less for touchdowns.
So we know about the offense. How about the defense. They're undersized, but very fast and very athletic. Kenny Rowe is one of the best pass rusher's in the nation and has 12.5 sacks this year. We know about Casey Matthews (younger brother of Green Bay Packer Clay Matthews). Oregon's got some other awesome playmakers on that defense with John Boyett and Cliff Harris. I'm really interested to see what Oregon's defense does against Cam Newton. Newton is the nation's most efficient passer but you have to take away his ability to run first and take your chances, the secondary is the strength of the Oregon defense.
Cliff Harris is also one of the best return men in the country and Auburn's coverage unit--not so good.
I can't wait to see the Oregon offense against the Auburn defense.
What to watch: Oregon's offense vs. Auburn's defense
Auburn's defense is so susceptible to giving up big plays, it's scary. The difference between Auburn's run game and Oregon's run game is that Auburn's handoffs are predetermined by the playcall whether Newton keeps it or hands it off to Dyer. For Oregon, it's a zone-read. We'll see if Nick Fairley penetrates and takes away the inside handoff and allows his defense to swarm to the outside. But if they can get anything going on the ground and Zac Etheridge, the Auburn safety, starts to get too involved in helping the run game, then Oregon can go over the top throwing the ball. Darron Thomas can throw the ball, early on I was skeptical, but now I see he can really throw the ball. I'm impressed with Thomas can do and he's just as vital to Oregon and Cam Newton is to Auburn.
Motivation Factor: Oregon has to be the more motivated team. In my opinion, Cam Newton has that "yeah look at me, it's all about me" mannerism. I wonder how many people on Auburn believe that Cam is their only chance to win. For Oregon, they got a earful this past month about the SEC and about Auburn's size. Oregon is fired up to defend the Pac-10 and show that they belong. Darron Thomas hasn't gotten any respect compared to Cam Newton and LaMichael James didn't come close to touching Newton in the Heisman race. Some of these Oregon guys weren't recruited by big time programs either. I know Gene Chizik will get Auburn ready, but believe me, Oregon is the more motivated team.
Summary
This is what we've all been waiting for. Finally, the big finish. Back in August I said Auburn had a favorable schedule aside from their trip to Tuscaloosa and they were my sleeper for a BCS game. However, never did I imagine the BCS game would be the BCS Championship. Oregon will have to blitz Cam Newton, get to him, and tackle him, he is so good at breaking tackles and getting upfield. For Auburn, their defense can't give up the big plays that it's given up all season long. Oregon has been a shutdown defense in the second half of games while Auburn has made some of its greatest comebacks in the second half. We'll see which team finishes in the fourth quarter. We expect a shootout, but when we expect a shootout it somehow always turns into a defensive battle.
Players to watch: Auburn QB Cam Newton; Oregon LB Casey Matthews
Potential Impact Players for Auburn: RB Michael Dyer, DT Nick Fairley, RB/KR Onterio McCalebb
Potential Impact Players for Oregon: CB/KR Cliff Harris, RB Kenjon Barner
Prediction: A month ago I said the winner of this game would have less than 40 points. We expect a shootout, but both of these teams are run-oriented offenses and that means the clock will keep running and less offensive possessions for both teams. However, both teams work so fast that the play-clock might not even be a factor in this game. Because Auburn is my "team of destiny" I can't go against that. But as always, the Football Gods may let me down again. I gotta give Houston Texans RB Ben Tate, Auburn alum, some Eastern Shore of Maryland love, too.
Auburn will be your 2010 National Champion
Prediction: Auburn 44, Oregon 31.

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