Week 6 Picks

The Big Games
No. 3 Oklahoma vs. No. 11 Texas
The 106th edition of the Red River Rivalry is here and both teams are undefeated again for the first time since 2008 when Texas won 45-35.
This game has decided the winner of the Big 12 Championship the last six years.
Oklahoma has it’s high-powered passing attack while Texas currently leads the nation in pass defense.
Oklahoma came into the season as preseason No. 1 and Texas was unranked after a 5-7 2010 season but the Longhorns have proved that they’re back.
Last year, Oklahoma won 28-20 after Texas’ Aaron Williams (now with the Buffalo Bills) muffed a punt in the final two minutes and there’s no guarantee that Texas wouldn’t have tied the game in that possession and won in overtime. Texas has all of the second half momentum. This year, it’s fairly the same Oklahoma team with more experience and it’s a brand new, new everything Texas team.
New Texas Offensive Coordinator Bryan Harsin gets his first chance at Oklahoma since the Fiesta Bowl when his Boise State team beat the Sooners in overtime. Now Harsin brings the Boise offense to Texas and we haven’t seen a hook-and-ladder or a statue of liberty yet. It would only be fitting for Harsin to break those out against Oklahoma.
It’s surprising that Texas leads the nation in pass defense because the secondary is the biggest concern for the 2011 defense. True freshman Quandre Diggs is making a big impact but lacks experience and Carrington Byndom and Adrian Phillips are both first-year starters. Texas also lost safeties Nolan Brewster and Christian Scott to injury and lacks depth (Brewster retired from football after recurring concussions this season).
Earlier this week, Texas announced Garrett Gilbert will transfer after Case McCoy and David Ash took the quarterback job. Oklahoma has had to spend all week to prepare for both, but Ash – known as the running quarterback – was used on passing plays last week to keep Oklahoma on their heels. The Sooners now had to waste time preparing for Ash to both pass and run the ball. The key will be experience – McCoy is a true sophomore and Ash is a true freshman and they can’t make mistakes against Oklahoma, the best defense they’ve seen to date.
For Oklahoma, Ryan Broyles – now a senior – has yet to have a big game against Texas, but hasn’t been completely healthy in the Red River game until this season. Texas says they’ll use the physical Kenny Vaccaro against Broyles in slot situations and Broyles does not like to be physical.
Texas hasn’t had a lot of sacks this season but Manny Diaz’s exotic blitzes have led to a lot of mistakes and now they’re facing the perfect quarterback to keep that trend going. Landry Jones is nothing but a pocket passer and if Alex Okafor and Jackson Jeffcoat can get to him and make him throw interceptions, Texas will win.
Let’s also remember games like these come down to special teams. Last year it was special teams on the Williams’ muffed punt. In 2008, it was Jordan Shipley’s kick return for a touchdown that sparked Texas. This year, it could be field goals as Oklahoma is turning to Michael Hunnicutt to kick with Jimmy Stevens recovering from injury. Hunnicutt missed a 30-yarder and got really lucky on a 44-yarder last week against Ball State.
Early on, this game looks like an easy win for Oklahoma and I’m not sure Texas is a top ten team right now, but the more you think about it and look at it, it’s very possible for Texas to surprise Oklahoma but they are going to have score.
Pick: Texas 28, Oklahoma 27

No. 15 Auburn at No. 10 Arkansas
Auburn has found itself at No. 15 in the AP Poll with an offense that’s been able to outscore Utah State and Mississippi State at the end. Auburn has suddenly found some defense too holding South Carolina to 289 total yards last week in a 16-13 win. This was an Auburn team that was supposed to be 7-5 at best but the Tigers have already won two games they were not favored in, and here comes their second straight SEC road challenge against Arkansas, who they beat 65-43 last year.
This year, it’s Barrett Trotter at the helm for Auburn, no Cam Newton. For Arkansas, it’s Tyler Wilson, who replaced Ryan Mallett vs. Auburn last year and threw for four touchdowns.
Wilson has elevated to maybe the SEC’s best quarterback, but his offensive line has had trouble keeping him off the turf. When Wilson has time to throw, he’s more accurate than Mallett was and last week threw for 510 yards, 289 of them going to Jarius Wright. Wright is only one part of the best receiving corps in the nation that Arkansas has against a weak Auburn secondary.
Arkansas also gets its best pass rusher, Jake Bequette, back from injury.
Pick: Arkansas 45, Auburn 24

Ohio State at No. 14 Nebraska
Ohio State was dismal at home against Michigan State last week. The Buckeyes were almost shutout and only scored in the final seconds of the game.
Ohio State was so bad it’s hard to say that Nebraska was equally as bad last week, but the Cornhuskers were pretty bad too against Wisconsin and Taylor Martinez threw three interceptions.
On paper, this Nebraska defense is outstanding. Jared Crick and Baker Steinkuhler are huge forces inside, Lavonte David is a linebacker that’s all over the field involved in every play, Austin Cassidy is a solid replacement for Eric Hagg and Ciante Evans, Alfonzo Dennard and Andrew Green are three outstanding corners. But where has the defense been for Nebraska? They have battled some injuries but it still hasn’t been the Blackshirt Defense. Going against Ohio State’s 108th nationally ranked total offense should help the Huskers gain some confidence on defense.
Ohio State will have left tackle Mike Adams back from suspension for this game, but learned they still won’t have tailback Boom Herron and top receiver DeVier Posey. Herron was suspended an additional game while Posey is suspended an additional five games and starting receiver Verlon Reed is also out for the season after a knee injury last week.
Ohio State’s offense lacks playmakers and Herron and Posey are two guys that would fill that role. Braxton Miller was benched at quarterback last year and relieved by Joe Bauserman but neither man has gotten the job done. Is it time to see Kenny Guiton take snaps for Ohio State?
Quarterback play for Nebraska has been unimpressive as well with the vastly overrated Taylor Martinez. Much talk was made of his improved passing but I haven’t seen it and to his defense, Nebraska’s group of receivers isn’t exactly the best group to throw to. Tight end Kyler Reed is a good target but the next two top targets are Brandon Kinnie and true freshman Ameer Abdullah out of the backfield.
While the offense may not be there, Ohio State’s defense is only allowing 14.6 points per game and only allowing 93.6 rushing yards per game while Nebraska rushes for more than 249 yards per game.
Luke Fickell needs a big win to help his image as the guy for the Ohio State head coaching job. There seems to be some turmoil right now and it looks certain Fickell won’t have this job next year.
The loser of this game will have it’s second conference loss and be eliminated from contention.
Pick: Nebraska 30, Ohio State 17


Lock in these Upset:
Missouri over No. 20 Kansas State – Kansas State has to lose eventually right? They’ve been a good story so far but Missouri is clearly the better team.
Prediction: Missouri 33, Kansas State 20

Rutgers over Pittsburgh – Ray Graham is one of the best in the nation at running back that not many know about and Mohamed Sanu is one of the best receivers in the nation that not many know about. Pitt is coming off the big victory over South Florida so are due for that emotional letdown on the road against a sleeper Rutgers team.
Prediction: Rutgers 20, Pittsburgh 13

Texas Tech over No. 24 Texas A&M – Texas Tech is 4-0 and Texas A&M is 2-2. Texas A&M’s pass defense is the worst in the nation statistically and Texas Tech has that load of receivers with Seth Doege whipping the ball around. It sounds like A&M is in trouble.
Prediction: Texas Tech 45, Texas A&M 41

San Diego State over TCU – San Diego State almost ruined the dream season for TCU last year in Fort Worth. They get another  shot at doing it in San Diego this time. I can see it happening with Ryan Lindley back at quarterback and a struggling TCU defense.
Prediction: San Diego State 34, TCU 30

Washington State over UCLA – Washington State is sitting at 3-1 even without Jeff Tuel at quarterback. Marshal Lobbaestal received the Manning Award for Quarterback of the Week in place of the injured Tuel. UCLA is again underachieving and is going to be shocked by the Cougars.
Prediction: Washington State 27, UCLA 21

Additional Upset Alerts to…
No. 13 Georgia Tech vs. Maryland – Maryland is struggling but could it be that the Terps struggled against Towson because they were looking ahead to this game? It’s always nice to have a bye week before you face the triple-option and Maryland treated Towson like a bye week.
Prediction: Georgia Tech 31, Maryland 28

No. 21 Virginia Tech vs. Miami – Both teams are trying to avoid an 0-2 start in conference play. Virginia Tech was embarrassed at home by Clemson last week. I don’t think they’ll allow being embarrassed two weeks in a row in Lane Stadium.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 27, Miami 24

Notre Dame vs. Air Force – Notre Dame needs to win the rest of the season to make a BCS Bowl. The triple-option offenses are never any fun but Notre Dame finally has athletes on defense.
Prediction: Notre Dame 33, Air Force 27

No. 12 Michigan at Northwestern – Michigan has four of its next five games on the road after getting comfortable in the Big House. Don’t count out Dan Persa but Northwestern will have to be able to stop the run.
Prediction: Michigan 35, Northwestern 28

No. 25 Baylor vs. Iowa State – Baylor got knocked off by Kansas State last week and now they go against a better defense in Iowa State that makes play. Baylor could find itself in trouble late, but should win.
Prediction: Baylor 45, Iowa State 34

Top 25 Picks
No. 1 LSU…the defense will be too good for Florida. LSU wins 27-10
No. 2 Alabama…Vanderbilt leads the nation interceptions but Alabama’s run game will be too much. Alabama wins 33-7
No. 3 Oklahoma…See above
No. 4 Wisconsin… bye week
No. 5 Boise State… Derek Carr’s ability to run might pose some problems for Boise early on but they’ll adjust and have a better performance than last week. Boise wins 42-17
No. 6 Oklahoma State… Kansas gave up 66 points to Georgia Tech. Oklahoma State won’t take it easy either. Oklahoma State wins 59-24
No. 7 Stanford… Stanford is a complete mismatch over the less-talented Colorado that is a long way from competing in the Pac-12. Stanford wins 45-14
No. 8 Clemson… Clemson heads back home to take on a faltering Boston College team. It could be a trap game if the Tigers are looking ahead to College Park. Clemson wins 33-10
No. 9 Oregon… Oregon gets Cal who held it to its lowest offensive total last season. This year will be a lot better for Oregon against Cal. Oregon wins 42-17
No. 10 Arkansas… see above.
No. 11 Texas… see above
No. 12 Michigan… see above
No. 13 Georgia Tech… see above
No. 14 Nebraska… see above
No. 15 Auburn… see above
No. 16 West Virginia… The Mountaineers lost on a last second field goal last year. The offense will put up points to prevent that this year. West Virginia wins 34-13
No. 17 Florida…Florida will start the true freshman Jeff Driskel at quarterback in Death Valley. The Gators won’t be able to get enough offense against LSU’s defense. Florida loses 27-10.
No. 18 South Carolina … Connor Shaw will start at quarterback over Stephen Garcia. Shaw needs to be the game manager and take care of the football. South Carolina wins 33-20
No. 19 Illinois… Indiana is struggling at 1-4. Illinois wins 24-16
No. 20 Kansas State… see above 
No. 21 Virginia Tech… see above
No. 22 Arizona State… Arizona State gets a Jordan Wynn-less Utah team. It’s going to be tough for John Hays to see Arizona State’s defense in his first start. Arizona State wins 37-14
No. 23 Florida State…Florida State faces a hot Wake Forest team with Tanner Price playing well at quarterback. FSU gets EJ Manuel back at quarterback. Florida State wins 34-24
No. 24 Texas A&M…see above
No. 25 Baylor... see above


Pick ‘Em:
Louisville at North Carolina
---Pick: North Carolina 33-24
Arizona at Oregon State
---Pick: Arizona 38-35
Iowa at Penn State
---Pick: Iowa 24-17
East Carolina at Houston
---Pick: Houston 56-45
Georgia at Tennessee
---Pick: Tennessee 27-24
Southern Miss at Navy
---Pick: Navy 35-28

The rest of the picks…
Mississippi State over UAB
Purdue over Minnesota
Rice over Memphis
Miami (OH) over Army
FIU over Akron
Temple over Ball State
Bowling Green over Western Michigan
Toledo over Eastern Michigan
NC State over Central Michigan
Ohio over Buffalo
Northern Illinois over Kent State
Louisiana Tech over Idaho
Troy over La-Lafayette
UCF over Marshall
Arkansas State over La-Monroe
Nevada over UNLV
FAU over North Texas
Utah State over Wyoming
Syracuse over Tulane
BYU over San Jose State