Week 4 Preview

September 24, 2011


Games to Watch
San Diego State at No. 22 Michigan
Brady Hoke left San Diego State for Michigan this offseason. Now, San Diego State finds itself entering the new home of Hoke, the Big House.
Michigan has cracked the Top 25 after starting the season 3-0 but with an unimpressive defense, I don’t expect the Wolverines to be in the Top 25 for very long.
Coming into the Big House is San Diego State’s offense that was very underrated last season. Senior quarterback Ryan Lindley is back with sophomore running back Ronnie Hillman who so far is the nation’s second-leading rusher with 165.7 yards per game on the ground, including 191 in the win over Washington State last week.
San Diego State doesn’t have their top receivers, Vincent Brown and DeMarco Sampson, from a year ago but Colin Lockett, Dylan Denso and Gavin Escobar have proved to be just as good a receiving group for Lindley.
The question is if the San Diego State defense can contain Michigan’s playmaker and quarterback Denard Robinson. They may not have the athletes but we’ll see if Rocky Long can beat his former peer, Al Borges, who is now the offensive coordinator for Michigan.
Michigan let Tommy Rees of Notre Dame pass for 315 yards. I’ll take my chances with San Diego State’s offense against the Michigan defense and say Brady Hoke’s old team will snag a win in the Big House.
My Pick: UPSET – San Diego State 34, Michigan 31


My Top 25


Notre Dame at Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh started the season 2-0 with wins over Buffalo and Maine before hitting a roadblock in Iowa. The next two games against Notre Dame and South Florida won’t be easy either. Pitt collapsed in the second half and gave up 21 points to Iowa in the fourth quarter while Notre Dame has been more of a second half team. To me, these two teams are pretty even (yes, Notre Dame is vastly overrated) and after the big win over Michigan State, Notre Dame could be looking at a letdown in Heinz Field, where a record crowd is expected for the Panthers.
Pittsburgh is having problems on the offensive line; Tino Sunseri has already been sacked 12 times and now Chris Jacobson is out for the season and he would have been matched up against Notre Dame’s Aaron Lynch, a real good defensive lineman.
The Pittsburgh defense hasn’t looked like one that has Brandon Lindsey, Greg Williams, Max Gruder and Jarred Holley, especially during that fourth quarter collapse vs. Iowa. Notre Dame’s offense is still looking for balance and seemed to get it with Jonas Gray and Cierre Wood splitting carries against Michigan State. Notre Dame’s defense led by Manti Te’o also shut down the Spartans’ running game. Ray Graham is the key to Pitt’s offense doing things and Notre Dame will slow him down early and often.
My Pick: Notre Dame 37, Pittsburgh 24

No. 14 Arkansas at No. 3 Alabama
It’s fair to say that Alabama will be on Upset Alert as Arkansas comes into Tuscaloosa but the clear advantage is being in Tuscaloosa.
This is Arkansas’ first real test after playing Missouri State, New Mexico and Troy to start the season. In fact, Troy was a pre-test for the Razorbacks and they almost didn’t pass. Corey Robinson passed for 373 yards and almost made the comeback in the second half if not for Ronnie Wingo’s career day allowing Arkansas to keep the ball in the fourth quarter.
Last year in Fayetteville, Alabama won 24-20 but remember the crucial Ryan Mallett interceptions. The difference now is that Tyler Wilson (a better decision maker) is at quarterback and Arkansas is without top tailback Knile Davis who is likely out for the entire season. Arkansas boasts the nation’s top receiving corps with Jairus Wright, Greg Childs, Joe Adams and Cobi Hamilton. Childs didn’t play against Troy last week following the death of his grandmother but will be back for Alabama.
Arkansas scores 47 points per game and Alabama’s defense that has nine starters from last year gives up six points per game. The Tide’s secondary looks good with both safeties Mark Barron and Robert Lester and Dre Kirkpatrick, DeQuan Menzie and Dee Milliner but they’ve given up some big plays in the passing game and Arkansas will certainly try for big plays. I’m not sure Alabama has enough depth in the secondary to cover Arkansas’ spread in certain situations.
Arkansas’ defense is looking to redeem itself from the performance against Troy and last year when Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson ran all over them. Jake Bequette will be out for Arkansas which could be big to up the pressure on Alabama quarterback AJ McCarron.
Arkansas is a lot better than people think but Alabama hasn’t made many mistakes this season and unless Arkansas can force some, Alabama will win in Tuscaloosa. Let’s not also forget that Arkansas has four new offensive linemen and Alabama is the first better than average defense they will be facing.
My Pick: Alabama 30, Arkansas 24

No. 7 Oklahoma State at No. 8 Texas A&M
Huge, huge matchup. It’s the Big 12 Conference opener for both teams and as you can see, it’s a top ten matchup (although in my personal rankings I have Texas A&M ranked one spot ahead of Oklahoma State). The winner of this game is scheduled for an opportunity to dethrone Oklahoma in the Big 12.
It’s Texas A&M’s last Big 12 opener as they’re headed to the SEC next season.
The Aggies led 21-7 at halftime last year before Oklahoma State surged in the second half and Dan Bailey kicked the game-winning field goal as time expired.
This time, the Cowboys are headed into the hostile environment that is Kyle Field, but the last time they were there, they won.
The two offenses are about even led by Brandon Weeden and Ryan Tannehill. Oklahoma State has running back Joseph Randle and Texas A&M has Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael. Oklahoma State has the superstar receiver Justin Blackmon and a great supporting cast and Texas A&M has star receiver Jeff Fuller and a great supporting cast. My point, this game is going to come down to the defenses and special teams, so advantage Aggies.
Picks: UPSET - Texas A&M 42, Oklahoma State 38

No. 2 LSU at No. 16 West Virginia
LSU has won 35 straight regular season non-conference games. Thirty-five. Including then-No. 3 Oregon in the first week of the season.
ESPN’s College Gameday is in Morgantown for the first time and a crazy atmosphere is expected. LSU’s last game was Thursday, Sept. 15 on the road in Starkville and Mississippi State canceled all classes so that the fans could ‘prepare’ for the game against LSU. Now, LSU gets to experience that all over again as West Virginia fans have all day to ‘prepare’ for the game so expect an extremely rowdy crowd. However, we won’t be seeing any more “West F---ing Virginia” shirts on TV anymore after the University banned them.
Both teams struggled on offense in this game last year that LSU won 20-14 in Baton Rouge. Jordan Jefferson was the quarterback for LSU then and threw two interceptions. Now, it’s Jarrett Lee who throws less interceptions than he ever did before. The big loss for LSU is Patrick Peterson who returned a punt for a touchdown (that ended up being the game winner) and blocked a WVU field goal last year. But even without Peterson, LSU has the best secondary in the country with three outstanding corners in Tyrann Mathieu, Morris Claiborne and Tharold Simon and that goes without mentioning Rion Brooks and the safeties Brandon Taylor, Eric Reid and Craig Loston. West Virginia has four terrific receivers led by Tavon Austin, Stedman Bailey and Ivan McCartney and some will question LSU’s defensive depth but LSU is loaded, absolutely loaded.
Jeff Mullen is no longer calling the plays for West Virginia as he is gone and Dana Holgorsen’s system is in. A system that allows Geno Smith to throw downfield, throw quick passes and well, throw for over 300 yards every game. Can he do that against LSU without help from the run game? He hasn’t gotten any help so far and West Virginia won’t be able to run with true freshmen Andrew Buie and Vernard Roberts against LSU’s dominant defensive line that we can start ripping off names from as well (Kendrick Adams, Sam Montgomery, Barkevious Mingo, Bennie Logan, Anthony Johnson, etc.). LSU has forced 15 plays that resulted in negative rushing yards so far this season. More to come.
But take a minute and look at the big picture. West Virginia is much better offensively than last year and the defense is still solid despite the hiccups against Maryland last week. This will be an even rematch of what happened in Baton Rouge last year because both teams have improved in big areas. Could the game be that close again?
My Pick: LSU 31, West Virginia 23

No. 23 USC at Arizona State
Who goes to bed early on a Saturday night? College Football runs well into the early morning hours on the east coast as USC and Arizona State have a 10:15 p.m. ET kickoff scheduled. It’s worth a reminder that USC is still ineligible for postseason play and the winner of this game is going to be in control of the Pac-12 South Division. Arizona State has been my national sleeper but I don’t know what’s in the water down there but injuries have come up everywhere for the Sun Devils and the latest is defensive end Junior Onyeali being out indefinitely, perhaps the rest of the season and that hurts Arizona State’s chances of putting pressure on USC’s Matt Barkley, who has only been sacked twice this season. Barkley has been outstanding this season and last week went 26-of-39 for 324 yards and five touchdowns.
Arizona State’s offensive line has had problems and that was evident last week in the upsetting loss to Illinois. Brock Osweiler has been sacked six times this season but hurried so many more that has resulted in costly turnovers. Arizona State has only beat themselves. In fact, beating themselves dates back to last season when the Sun Devils could have upset the likes of Wisconsin and Oregon.
The Robert Woods vs. Osahan Irabor matchup will be fun to watch. Irabor has gotten burned too many times already in 2011 though the expectations for him are high and Woods has lived up to all the hype as an explosive receiver.
Vontaze Burfict is a built-like-a-machine monster at linebacker and should make a play or two or three or four or five (you get the point of how good this guy is?). The injuries hurt Arizona State and USC has improved but I still want to go with my original pick I made back in July that Arizona State would win this game and be in the driver’s seat for the Pac-12 South.
My Pick: UPSET - Arizona State 31 USC 27


Locking in these Upset Picks:
North Carolina over No. 25 Georgia Tech – Georgia Tech is averaging 10.3 yards per play but hasn’t played a solid defense. I think UNC will be prepared and prove that once again, the Wramblin’ Wreck is overrated.

Toledo over Syracuse – Syracuse defense not as good as last year and Toledo can make things happen on offense and has its own solid defense.

San Diego State over No. 22 Michigan – see Games to Watch

UCLA over Oregon State – Oregon State is surprisingly the favorite in this game which makes the pick of UCLA even easier since no one is respecting them. Oregon State is going through a big rebuilding phase.

Arizona State over USC – see Games to Watch

Extra Upset Alerts to…
Miami (OH) vs. Bowling Green – Bowling Green is improved and Miami starts 0-2 (tough schedule vs. Missouri and Minnesota) but QB Zac Dysert may be benched soon for sophomore Austin Boucher.

No. 13 Virginia Tech at Marshall – Based on the way Virginia Tech has played recently against lesser opponents, Marshall is no cakewalk. The Thundering Herd has a good defense a star freshman quarterback, Rockeem Cato. Virginia Tech is without leading receiver Jarrett Boykin and return man Dyrell Roberts.

Ohio State vs. Colorado – Jon Embree seems to have Colorado moving in the right direction with Tyler Hansen having career performances and now faces a struggling Ohio State who is sending true freshman Braxton Miller out for his first career start.

No. 11 Florida State at No. 21 Clemson – Clemson has won four straight at home vs. the Seminoles who haven’t won in Death Valley since 2001.

Virginia vs. Southern Miss – Virginia is better, but don’t count out a motivated Southern Miss team with a healthy Austin Davis.

No. 15 Florida at Kentucky - Florida is in a perfect spot for an emotional letdown on the road against Kentucky in a trap game with Alabama lurking next week.

Miami (FL) vs. Kansas State – Miami coming off a big win over Ohio State so they’re due for an emotional letdown this week. Kansas State’s Arthur Brown and Bryce Brown facing their former school.

No. 12 South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt – Vanderbilt 3-0 this year and 2-2 in the last four years vs. the Gamecocks. Commodores boast a really good defense but can they stop Marcus Lattimore?

No. 1 Oklahoma vs. Missouri – The last time these two played, the Tigers upset the then-No. 1 Sooners in Columbia and have the potential to do it again but Oklahoma has won 30 straight home games.

No. 10 Oregon at Arizona – The Wildcats crowd is expecting to fill sections of the stadium in red, white and blue but I think it’ll look more patriotic than intimidating for the Ducks. Arizona has the Pac-12’s worst defense but Nick Foles has been tremendous so far.