Orange Bowl, GoDaddy.com Bowl

January 3, 2011

I will be sitting in Section 140 of Sun Life Stadium as I have an eye on the Orange Bowl. It will be my 242nd college football game watched this year, breaking my old personal best of 241 games. Also this week on Tuesday is the Sugar Bowl and after a day-off on Wednesday, the GoDaddy.com Bowl is Thursday night. That bowl game last year (called the GMAC Bowl) provided an overtime thriller between Central Michigan and Troy so don't discount that game because of the team's that are playing. There are NOT too many bowl games.

Enjoy the week.

For a further break down, check out my Matchup Advantages

Monday, January 3rd
Discover Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. Stanford (11-1), 8:30pm on ESPN
I am here live in Miami for the Orange Bowl this year. On my flight here, there was some Stanford, but it was a mostly pro-Virginia Tech crowd—on the flight. So we’ll see how both schools represent tomorrow in Sun Life Stadium.
Virginia Tech
*Last Bowl Game: 2009 Chick-fil-A Bowl, Won 37-14 over Tennessee
*Familiarity with the Orange Bowl, this Tyrod Taylor’s third career Orange Bowl appearance (2008, 2009, 2011)
*Virginia Techs won 11 straight games after starting 0-2 (Boise State, James Madison)
*Tyrod Taylor has to have a great game, and a balanced one at that too.
*Virginia Tech’s three not good—great—running backs: Ryan Williams, Darren Evans and David Wilson
*David Wilson is suspended for the first quarter for violating curfew.
*Great defense, underrated secondary. Jayron Hosley leads in interceptions
*Virginia Tech’s turnover margin: +18
*For the record, I watched Virginia Tech play six times this year.
Stanford
*Last Bowl Game: 2009 Sun Bowl, Lost 31-27 to Oklahoma
*Heisman Semi-Finalist Andrew Luck.
*Best offensive line in the nation, only 5 sacks allowed.
*balance on the offense is going to be key, Andrew Luck can’t go against the Virginia Tech secondary without a run game with Stepfan Taylor
*Luck’s mobility will be a key
*Stanford defense shut out a UCLA team that scored 34 on Texas, shut out an Oregon State team that scored 24 on Boise State, 21 on TCU and shut out a Washington team that scored 41 on Syracuse and beat USC.
*Stanford’s turnover margin: +14
*For the record, I watched Stanford play six times this year.
What to watch: The play of Virginia Tech QB Tyrod Taylor/Stanford’s offense.
Taylor: If Taylor can break contain and convert key situations into first downs or scores with his legs, Virginia Tech will win this game, but that goes without saying that he must be efficient in the passing game, too. A one-dimensional Taylor won’t beat Stanford.
Stanford’s O: Stanford is fun to watch because they have Andrew Luck but also a lot of creativity. They have 350 plays on Luck’s wristband. All the different formations they’ll use will be tricky for Virginia Tech. Watch the formations and try to guess what’s going to happen: three tight end sets, two backs or empty sets, sometimes as many as eight offensive linemen, pistol, spread, i-formation and Wildcat, the Cardinal have it all.
Motivation Factor: Advantage Hokies. Stanford already has a school record 11 wins and we know they want 12 but with all the Jim Harbaugh leaving rumors, there’s too much distraction. All Stanford has to gain from this win is a 12th win. For Virginia Tech, they are fired up to prove the worth of the ACC (especially after UConn’s performance in the Fiesta Bowl) and are going for their 12th consecutive win. This could very well be the best one-loss team in the nation if they had not had that huge letdown to James Madison after Boise State.
Summary
Not many teams play defense in the Pac-10 so Stanford’s offensive numbers are little inflated. I love Virginia Tech’s defense. Both of these teams will count on their balance offensively as they both average more than 200 yards passing and rushing. Virginia Tech has the rushing trio of Darren Evans, Ryan Williams and David Wilson while Stanford will use Stepfan Taylor, Anthony Wilkerson and Tyler Gaffney and both of these very efficient quarterbacks (Tyrod Taylor 23 TD, 4 INT, Andrew Luck 28 TD, 7 INT) are very mobile and tough runners. I always go back to the Oregon game for Stanford because I still think Stanford is the best team in the Pac-10, but the matchup with Oregon wasn’t fair because of the speed and athleticism that Stanford lacks on defense. I believe that will be a factor in this game. Virginia Tech must also not allow Stanford deep threat Chris Owusu to get behind them, especially on play-action.  My conclusion is that this will be a close Virginia Tech win or Stanford will win by double digits.
Players to watch: Stanford QB Andrew Luck; Virginia Tech QB Tyrod Taylor
Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, Stanford 28


Tuesday, January 4th
Allstate Sugar Bowl: Ohio State (11-1) vs. Arkansas (10-2), 8:30pm on ESPN
Final round of the Big Ten-SEC heavyweight fight that's been one-sided so far.
Ohio State
*Last Bowl Game: 2010 Rose Bowl, Won 26-17 over Oregon
*The Big Ten went 0-5 on New Year’s Day, Ohio State is 0-9 vs. the SEC
*Ohio State hasn’t allowed more than 352 total yards all year—Arkansas had 421 against Alabama’s defense.
*Ohio State’s passing defense gives up only 156 yards per game—Arkansas counters with prolific passer Ryan Mallett
*The five players that are suspended for the first 5 games next season are eligible for this game (stupid)
*Ohio State trying to prove they’re the No. 2 defense in the county.
*For the record, I watched Ohio State five times this year.
Arkansas
*Last Bowl Game: 2010 Liberty Bowl, Won 20-17 over East Carolina
*Ryan Mallett “The Legend” can become a legend if he beats the Buckeyes.
*Kniles Davis must run well.
*Arkansas’s offensive line not dominant. Must prevent pressure on Mallett and establish a run game.
*For the record, I watched Arkansas six times this year.
What to watch:
Motivation Factor: Advantage Buckeyes. Arkansas seems just happy to be here. You never want to go with a team that has that feeling. Ohio State is fired up, especially with the latest distractions and people crying out loud that the Ohio State players should not be allowed to play in this game. The Big Ten went 0-5 on New Year’s Day and took a lot of heat and Ohio State is its last hope.
Summary
Ohio State has been on this stage many times before while Arkansas is making its first BCS appearance. This is an awesome matchup of Arkansas’ offense versus Ohio State’s defense but also watch out for whether Ohio State decides to pound the ball in the running game against an undersized but outstanding Arkansas linebacker corps (watch Jerico Nelson). My initial pick was Arkansas in this game, but given the new circumstances I like Ohio State. My ESPN Bowl Mania says Arkansas, but I’m throwing that out the window. What I do in even matchups is I visualize who will be doing the postgame celebration and doing the interviews. The Ohio State picture comes into my head. Arkansas does not.But I'll take my chances with my Bowl Mania pick which was 17 confidence points riding on Arkansas.
Players to watch: Ohio State CB Chimdi Chekwa; Arkansas RB Kniles Davis
Prediction:  Arkansas 26, Ohio State 21
*This prediction has been edited at 4:57pm ET on January 3, 2010
In case you missed it before I edited it, the original score prediction was 33-31.


Thursday, January 6th
GoDaddy.com Bowl: Miami (OH) (9-4) vs. Middle Tennessee (6-6), 8:00pm on ESPN
Another Sun Belt-MAC matchup.  
Miami (OH)
*Last Bowl Game: 2004 Independence Bowl, Lost 17-13 to Iowa State
*what a turnaround for Miami as they go from 1-11 a year to 9-4 and MAC Champions this year in now-former-coach Mike Haywood’s first year. Haywood since left for the Pittsburgh job before being immediately fired for being arrested for domestic violence.
*Quarterback Zac Dysert tried to be ready but looks like he won’t go with his ruptured spleen. Freshman Austin Boucher who was great in the MAC Title game will get the start.
*They have to get a run game to help Boucher. Miami is 114th in the nation in rushing offense but Thomas Meriweather has come around late in the year.
*Great pair of receivers for Miami in Armand Robinson and Nick Harwell
*Miami has given up 37 more points than they’ve scored…includes 34-12 loss to Florida, 51-13 loss to Missouri and 45-3 loss to Cincinnati.
*For the record, I watched Miami four times this year
Middle Tennessee
*Last Bowl Game: 2009 New Orleans Bowl, Won 42-32 over Southern Miss
*Middle Tennessee had to beat Florida International 28-27 in the regular season’s final week just to become bowl eligible (and wrongly boot Temple from a bowl game)
*Blue Raiders have allowed seven more points than they’ve scored this season. Stat that jumps out is the 51 points to Arkansas State (10 turnovers)
*Dwight Dasher has not been the same quarterback this year after serving his suspension in the beginning. Averaging only 3.6 yards per carry.
*Phillip Tanner is a dynamic running back, good receiver out of the backfield.
*Middle Tennessee is the nation’s worst team in terms of turnover margin
*For the record, I watched Middle Tennessee two times this year
What to watch: Turnovers
Middle Tennessee is worst in the nation in turnover margin while Miami freshman quarterback Austin Boucher has thrown just one interception. In Middle Tennessee’s six losses this year: 24 turnovers and 6 takeaways. In their six wins: 12 takeaways and 6 giveaways including just one turnover in their last three games (all wins).
Motivation Factor: Middle Tennesse had high hopes to compete for the Sun Belt conference title this year but began with their quarterback out with suspension and then the team was not able to stay healthy and the offense was too inconsistent and players were giving the ball away all year. They ended the season on a positive not to gain bowl eligibility and the bowl layoff may have ended their momentum but they have unfinished business and this Dwight Dasher’s last game as a Blue Raider.
Summary
The Sun Belt Conference has always had an edge over the MAC much like how the SEC dominates the Big Ten. Middle Tennessee has the better athletes, much more speed but Miami has a good defense. We’ll see if the talent pool is level in this game because I think while Miami might have the better receivers, Middle Tennessee has better speed and skill in the other positions.
Players to watch: Middle Tennessee QB Dwight Dasher; Miami WR Armand Robinson
Prediction: Middle Tennessee 31, Miami (OH) 23