Dec. 29 Bowl Games

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December 29, 2010

I started bowl season 5-0 and now I'm 6-5. I could easily be 6-8 by the end of today but I'll take that chance. The Champs Sports Bowl turned out to be a dud since West Virginia didn't show up but the Insight Bowl last night gave us some post-midnight excitement. We could have more post-midnight excitement tonight with the Alamo Bowl between Oklahoma State and Arizona. Also on tap for today is the Military Bowl and Texas Bowl. 

My Matchup Advantages are available here and you can see how many points I gave these games in Bowl Mania



Military Bowl pres. By Northrop Grumman: Maryland (8-4) vs. East Carolina (6-6), 2:30pm on ESPN
This is what I have a problem with in the bowl season. I mean, in college football in general it’s all about the money and revenue and whatever. I understand that, I just can’t live with that but that’s how everything I life is. About money.
There is no reason (other than money) that a Maryland team that was one-win Florida State win away from playing for the Conference Championship should be playing in the ACC’s eighth bowl spot. I’m a Maryland native, but I’m not necessarily advocating them.
But the knock on Maryland is that their fans don’t travel and so they’re not a very attractive bowl team
but my friends had a good point, that of course they don’t want to go D.C. for a game but if Maryland
was playing in say the Champs Sports Bowl in Florida, they would go. It’s kind of a catch-22 for the
bowls.
But anyway, this Maryland team that went 2-10 last year had a great year finishing second in the ACC Coastal. But now after coach-in-waiting and offensive coordinator James Franklin left for the Vanderbilt head job, head coach Ralph Friedgen has been shown the door as Maryland bought out his one-year contract extension they gave him earlier this season. Not very good treatment for the ACC Coach of the Year, huh?
“The Fridge” has been pretty publicly emotional about his departure from Maryland and he’s really rallying the troops at Maryland. Now I’m the guy who sits here and says teams playing for their coaches or interim-coaches win 95% of the time. I really do want to change my Bowl Mania pick to Maryland now that the Fridge is coaching his last game but all the Bowl Mania picks are locked and I can’t change them. Therefore I’m hoping Maryland is a part of that 5% that loses.
The last memory I have of Maryland in a bowl game is that Humanitarian Bowl win over Nevada.
Maryland’s defense is good, not great but at the same time very underrated. I was at the Florida State game and I was so surprised at how easily they got pressure on Christian Ponder and of course the safety Tony Logan and linebacker Alex Wujciak are studs.
For East Carolina’s defense, they rank No. 120 out of the 120 FBS schools in total defense. ECU gave up 49, 42, 49, 76, 62 and 45 points in their six losses and three times gave up 40 points and won thanks to their offense but for the Pirates, their offense averages 38.2 points per game but gives up 43.4 points per game. They gave up 54.5 points per game in their last five games. 62 points in a loss to Rice is not very impressive. The gist of it is that East Carolina has not been able to stop anyone all year, yet they somehow beat NC State in overtime. NC State’s offense most relates to what Maryland will scheme but NC State didn’t have All-ACC receiver Torrey Smith who torched the Wolfpack for 224 yards.
Maryland hasn’t run the ball as much as I expected them to with Davin Meggett and Da’Rel Scott in the backfield but ACC Rookie of the Year Danny O’Brien has done a great job taking over the offense and the Terps might cut him loose against ECU’s secondary.
For the Pirates to win, Maryland has to be non-motivated to play and they’re going to have to rely on the Air Raid passing attack that Ruffin McNeill and Lincoln Riley brought over from Texas Tech.
Quarterback Dominique Davis is the nation’s 4th-most efficient passer with 3,699 yards, 36 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. The Boston College transfer played against Maryland in 2008 as a freshman and threw for two touchdowns. At East Carolina he has two dynamic receivers in Dwayne Harris and Lance Lewis to throw to and Jonathan Williams is a good pass-catching back. The X-Factor is the big 6-foot-8 receiver/tightend Justin Jones who had that insane hail mary catch to beat Tulsa 51-49 back in week one.
The whole thing about Maryland not being motivated to play is less of a factor I think because of this being Friedgen’s Farewell, and no doubt in my mind that East Carolina is going to be pumped out but they’ll have to definitely outscore Maryland in a shootout.
Prediction: East Carolina 37, Maryland 34
Players to watch: East Carolina WR Dwayne Harris; Maryland WR Torrey Smith

Texas Bowl: Illinois (6-6) vs. Baylor (7-5), 6:00pm on ESPN
To my surprise Baylor is the favorite in this but I guess it is a virtual home game for the Bears as they’re a two-point favorite in Vegas and a 51% favorite by America’s poll playing in their first bowl game since 1994.
Even earlier in the year, Baylor somehow got into the Top 25 of the AP Poll while of course with a 7-2 record, I left the Bears out of my top 25. I don’t necessarily like to put teams that don’t play defense in my rankings. After beating Texas for the first time in 12 years to end October, Baylor lost its last three games to end its potential Cinderella season. In those three losses to Oklahoma State, Texas A&M and Oklahoma: 55, 42, and 53 points allowed. Baylor allowed 40 or more points in every loss this season and gave up 42 to Kansas State in a 47-42 win.
Illinois’ defense isn’t exactly one to boast either. Remember the 67-65 epic triple overtime loss to Michigan? How about giving up 38 points to Minnesota and losing to the Golden Gophers? But the Illini are physical and have outstanding players like linebacker Martez Wilson and cornerback Travon Bellamy on that defense. Defensive tackle Corey Liuget is a poor man’s Nick Fairley and could impact this game.
Illinois doesn’t really have a signature win but got that 330-yard performance from Mikel Leshoure in the Wrigley Field game against Northwestern.
Baylor’s giving up 160 yards per game on the ground and Leshoure needs 169 yards to break Rashard Mendenhall’s single season Illinois record. TCU ran over Baylor for 291 yards and Oklahoma State had 290.
Baylor’s going to need big production out of Jay Finley on the ground, but mainly from quarterback Robert Griffin who has to be the nation’s Comeback Player of the Year after tearing his ACL last season and missing all of 2009. He’s got a nice receiver in Kendall Wright and Illinois has to be wary that 11 of Griffin’s touchdown passes were for 39 yards or more.
Prediction: Illinois 30, Baylor 28
Players to watch: Baylor QB Robert Griffin; Illinois DT Corey Liuget

Valero Alamo Bowl: Arizona (7-5) vs. Oklahoma State (10-2), 9:15pm on ESPN
This should be a late night shootout; it could be close to 2am on the east coast by the time this game is over. I got a nice tweet response on Twitter from Arizona cornerback Trevin Wade about this game when the matchup was first announced. Told Trevin Wade he’d have a lot of fun going against Justin Blackmon and all he had to say was “haha u right.” We’ll see. These two offenses should be put up a lot of points with the two coordinators, Oklahoma State’s Dana Holgorsen and Arizona’s Seth Littrell, both being Mike Leach disciples and neither one of these two defenses are great.
Oklahoma State’s defense gave up 41 points in both of the Pokes’ losses while Arizona’s defense disappeared during their four-game losing streak to end the season and this game is a preview of next year as these two teams have each other scheduled for a home-and-home series that begins next season.
This is the last game for Dana Holgorsen at Oklahoma State before he leaves for West Virginia but he will call all the plays for the nation’s No. 1 offense. They’ve got a great trio with Brandon Weedon, Kendall Hunter and Justin Blackmon but have a lot of good secondary receivers too. Blackmon has over 100 yards receiving in every game he has played in this year. He could become the only player ever to record 100 receiving yards in every game of the season and Blackmon’s the only guy who really gave Nebraska’s Prince Amukamara fits. You just can’t cover the guy. Arizona will likely match him up with Trevin Wade and Wade has played poorly during this losing streak.
Arizona has their own big play receiver in Juron Criner and he’s special because they’ll throw him the deep ball but also work him on quick screens and he’s just as dangerous with yards after the catch. Nick Foles is a great quarterback with a great future for Arizona but what bothers me is how well Arizona played when Foles was out and Matt Scott took over the offense. That worries me a little bit. Foles hasn’t been the same since returning from the knee injury.
I expected big things from Arizona this year but Nic Grigsby and Keola Antolin were too inconsistent running the ball and the defense wasn’t as good as I thought it would be. Bad enough he defense is struggling but the run game also for Zona because keeping Oklahoma State’s offense off the field will be the biggest defense. It’s not likely to happen.
Oklahoma State’s not great on defense either, not a lot of depth which hurt them but they’ve got great players in Ugo Chinasa, Orie Lemon, Markelle Martin and Brodrick Brown.
Some key guys missing for this game are Quinn Sharp and Marc Yerry. Sharp is one of Oklahoma State’s biggest weapons being the punter and kickoff specialist, he leads the nation in touchbacks and Yerry is the long-snapper so we’ll look for snapping issues on the Cowboys’ special teams while Arizona is without starting center Colin Baxter who will be replaced by Kyle Quinn. It’s unsure whether Lou Groza Award winner Dan Bailey will handle the punting duties for Oklahoma State, but if he does and he needs to kick a game-winning field goal, look for the punting to have taken an effect on his leg. But I don’t think he’ll have to worry about that.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 38, Arizona 27
Players to watch: Oklahoma State WR Justin Blackmon; Arizona WR Juron Criner