January 2, 2010
Saturday, January 2
International Bowl, 12pm on ESPN2
South Florida Bulls (7-5) vs. Northern Illinois Huskies (7-5)
Northern Illinois has one of the best defenses in the MAC and likewise with South Florida in the Big East. Northern Illinois comes into this game as a major underdog, but South Florida just went through their annual second half slumber after starting the season 5-0 and now they have to go up Canada for a game. I’m sure they would prefer the warm beaches of south Florida.
I’ve only seen Northern Illinois play twice this year and didn’t see anything special about them aside from one playmaker and I went and looked at his numbers, how about this: junior Chad Spann has 20 touchdowns this year for Northern Illinois, but he’s only had 166 touches (carries and catches). Spann averages a touchdown every eight times he touches the ball, that’s explosive. Spann had 156 rushing yards when I watched him against Miami of Ohio and also three touchdowns against Western Michigan. Now granted those are great defenses so it’ll be interesting to see if South Florida can contain his big play ability. Defensively the Bulls have three solid NFL prospects that could all go in the early rounds with defensive ends Jason Pierre-Paul and George Selvie and safety Nate Allen.
When Matt Grothe was the quarterback for the Bulls, it seemed like they had more pace and rhythm to the offense and made big play after big play. Grothe after going down with an ACL tear has been replaced by redshirt freshman BJ Daniels and the offense hasn’t been great since the change. Daniels is also, because of a lack of experience, very inconsistent. In the games the Bulls have won, Daniels throws for 200 yards and gains big yards with his feet. In the games they lose, Daniels completes just over 50% of his passes and throws interceptions and tries to create plays with his feet that aren’t there.
Prediction: South Florida 24, Northern Illinois 10
Result: South Florida 27, Northern Illinois 3
We knew these were too good defenses but I didn't think Northern Illinois could hold off South Florida's speed, but they did in the first half and couldn't keep it up. The Huskies' offensive line was just overmatched too as that South Florida defense played very well and got constant pressure on Chandler Harnish and DeMarcus Grady. Northern Illinois had a bunch of 3rd-and-longs and against a pass rush like USF's it's tough to be put in obvious passing situations. Northern Illinois had chances in the first quarter, but a fake punt on 4th down failed and that really deflated their offense.
In the third quarter, South Florida came out with more quick short passes to replace the running game that just wasn't there in the first half and finally got leading receiver Carlton Mitchell involved. But then the running game got going when they gave the more carries to Mike Ford who had a huge day with 19 of his 20 carries in the second half for 207 yards on the ground. Northern Illinois had no answer for Ford as he pounded through the defenders and then broke away for big yardage. It's the third straight year a Big East runningback has run for 200 yards or more in the International Bowl (Ray Rice 2007, Donald Brown 2008, Ford 2009).
South Florida started the second half with an 81 yard scoring drive, and they only had 95 yards the entire first half. Northern Illinois couldn't say much about offense in the second half. They were outgained by almost 200 yards of offense. The Huskies were held under 30 total yards for the quarter and aside from the pass rush, the most important thing South Florida did was not allow Chad Spann to break free and he didn't find the endzone today despite having 23 touches. Spann never broke through for any big gain until a 37 yard run in the 4th quarter that at that point in the game was meaningless.
My Player of the Game: Mike Ford, South Florida Running Back
Papajohns.com Bowl, 2pm on ESPN
South Carolina Gamecocks (7-5) vs. Connecticut Huskies (7-5)
In Memory of Jasper Howard, #6
Connecticut will have its hands full with this outstanding defense of South Carolina led by Eric Norwood, but the Huskies have a pretty good defense of their own. UConn coach Randy Edsall was a candidate for the Notre Dame job because of his leadership skill and ability to get his players ready for big games and I expect nothing different from Edsall in this one. If it wasn’t for Edsall’s leadership, I don’t know how UConn would have moved on from the death of starting cornerback Jasper Howard.
The challenge is this for UConn: they have never beat a team from the SEC.
Look for South Carolina offensively to try to make plays in the passing game and utilize true freshman Alshon Jeffery a little more, he has come up big as the season winded down. South Carolina also has a veteran quarterback with Stephen Garcia who was one of the best passers in the SEC this year. It’s going to be a really close game and that’s something UConn is very used to, every single game for the Huskies this year, win or lose, has had a margin of victory/loss of seven points or fewer.
Prediction: South Carolina 23, UConn 20
Result: UConn 20, South Carolina 7
UConn finally played a game that didn't go down to the wire, all of their games had been decided by seven points or fewer until now. It wasn't as close as the score suggests, UConn had a 20-0 lead the entire game until a late South Carolina touchdown, but all the miscues and the struggles up front on the offensive line hurt South Carolina's chances. Stephen Garcia wasn't given much time to find his receivers and got sacked a lot and when given time and making good throws, his receivers combined for nine drops and Garcia did have an interception thrown, but that interception was a result of a previous drop. It was 3rd down and 19 and Garcia hit his tight end Weslye Saunders for a first down but Saunders dropped the ball and the Gamecocks went for it on 4th, didn't have much of a choice, and Garcia got pressured again, rolled out and just threw the ball deep up for grabs in desperation and it was picked off Robert Vaughn. It was just that kind of day for the SC offense.
The defense just got worn down by UConn's run game. Senior Andre Dixon just kept pounding away at the South Carolina offense and just kept moving the chains. The run game really took South Carolina's pass rush and Eric Norwood out of the game.
It's just a great story though to have UConn finish the season the way they did. To watch #37 (don't know who that was) carry around Jasper Howard's jersey during the celebration was special. Jazz Howard was a part of this win.
My Player of the Game: Andre Dixon, Connecticut Running Back
AT&T Cotton Bowl, 2pm on FOX
No. 19 Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-3) vs. Ole Miss Rebels (8-4)
Ole Miss is in a very similar situation as last year and they know what to do. Last year Ole Miss came in as a heavy underdog to the Big 12’s high scoring offense of Texas Tech, ranked #7 in the nation at the time and led by senior quarterback Graham Harrell. Ole Miss went on to turn that game into a shootout and win 47-34. Texas Tech had a very good offensive line too that just got beat by Ole Miss’s defense as Harrell got thrown around a little bit. This year, Oklahoma State comes in with its high scoring offense led by senior quarterback Zac Robinson and the Cowboys have the best offensive tackle in the country in Russell Okung and Greg Hardy is out for Ole Miss in this game, but the Ole Miss pass rush versus that offensive line will be a matchup to watch.
The last time Ole Miss played in the Cotton Bowl was 2004 and they had a guy named Eli Manning at quarterback then. Now they have a future pro in Jevan Snead but ranked as a high first round draft pick entering the season, he had a rough year and should be advised to return to Ole Miss for his senior year to raise his draft status. Snead led the nation with 17 interceptions thrown.
Oklahoma State has improved a lot defensively this year and that’s really been the improvement in the Big 12 Conference overall was the defense. However, Okie State’s top corner Perrish Cox has been ruled for this game for violating team rules yesterday. Cox is the team’s best cover corner and also the kick and punt returner.
Oklahoma State has been without number one receiver Dez Bryant all year with his NCAA suspension, and guys like Hubert Anyiam have made the most of opportunities but Oklahoma State has become a run-first offense this year rather than a high paced passing attack. Robinson also had a shoulder injury near the end of the season and it’s not clear if he’s at 100% but it’s his final game and he will play. It’ll also be the final game for senior slot back Dexter McCluster of Ole Miss. McCluster has been a dynamic play maker in all different ways and the defense must account for where he is on the field at all times.
I expect points, but I’m not anticipating a big shootout.
Prediction: Ole Miss 33, Oklahoma State 24
Result: Ole Miss 21, Oklahoma State 7
Seems like everytime everyone expects points, the game never meets expectations. It was just a sloppy game and a struggle for both teams. How about Oklahoma State's offense, they've scored seven points in its last eight quarters of play.
The Cotton Bowl record for most turnovers is 13, today there was 12. Seven by Oklahoma State and five by Ole Miss and sadly the great career of Zac Robinson at Oklahoma State ended with an interception thrown as time expired.
Ole Miss scored first with an 86 yard run by Dexter McCluster in the second quarter. Oklahoma State tied in the 3rd quarter after they pulled a page out of the Florida playbook and used Keith Toston to execute the Tim Tebow jump pass.
At the end of the third quarter, Oklahoma State had another chance to take the lead with a first and goal from the 2-yard line and Ole Miss put together a very nice goalline stand. Since that stand, it was over for Oklahoma State offensively, their next six possessions ended like this: interception, interception, fumble, fumble, interception, interception.
Dexter McCluster scored the the game-winning touchdown out of the Wild Rebel formation and a counter run left and just to make sure it was over, Patrick Trahan picked up a Hubert Anyiam fumble with three minutes to go and scored the final touchdown, and on the very next possession Trahan came down with a tipped ball for another interception.
My Player of the Game: Dexter McCluster, Ole Miss Running Back
Honorable Mention: Patrick Trahan, Ole Miss Cornerback
AutoZone Liberty Bowl, 5:30pm on ESPN
Arkansas Razorbacks (7-5) vs. East Carolina Pirates (9-4)
Congratulations to East Carolina for upsetting the Houston Cougars in the Conference USA Championship game and getting their second straight bid to the Liberty Bowl. They just beat Case Keenum and Houston’s offense, and now they get Ryan Mallett and the Arkansas offense. Mallett is the best passing quarterback in the SEC and at 6’7” 245 he’s got all the physical tools to make it big time in the NFL and with a big game here Mallett might think about leaving early for the NFL. He is only a sophomore, but transferred from Michigan and sat last season out due to NCAA transfer rules so he is a draft-eligible sophomore.
East Carolina probably thinks they can stop Mallett just like Keenum, but they’re gonna get a taste of the SEC’s speed and athleticism both on offense and defense. ECU quarterback Patrick Pinkney is a sixth year senior and he didn’t get another year of eligibility to lose again in the Liberty Bowl. To help him out, East Carolina will try to create Arkansas turnovers, ECU is among the tops in the nation in takeaways and turnover margin. The Arkansas defense has been struggling as of late and two starters have been suspended for the game for violating team rules: linebacker Wendel Davis and safety Matt Harris who are two of the top three tacklers on the team.
If it becomes a battle of field position though keep in mind East Carolina has one of the best punters that I have ever seen in Matt Dodge, and the Pirates might be punting a lot but Arkansas will be kicking off a lot. I expect Mallett and Arkansas to carve up this East Carolina secondary.
Prediction: Arkansas 44, East Carolina 21
Result: Arkansas 20, East Carolina 17 (overtime)
East Carolina had so many chances to win this one but what is going on in college football? Between nine games today and yesterday, there have been 16 missed or blocked field goals and extra points. In this game there were five misses, four by East Carolina and three of them could have won the game. Ben Hartman in a 17-17 tie in the fourth quarter had a chance to kick the game-winning field goal and he missed it, but Arkansas gave the ball right back to East Carolina and the Pirates got into field goal range again and with three seconds on the clock Hartman tried another game-winner and it was no good again. In overtime, the Pirates got the ball first and Hartman, well, he missed another field goal, which set up Arkansas just needing a field goal to win and Alex Tejada, who missed one earlier, nailed it right down the middle for the win.
Arkansas all day struggled on offense, it was a reported 29 degrees in Memphis and that was the biggest enemy for Arkansas. It was just too cold for their offense to work and Ryan Mallett completed less than 50% of his passes but many balls were dropped too, but credit to the East Carolina defensive line and the pressure they got on Mallett. Arkansas plays in the SEC against those defenses, but at how ECU's defense stood up today they looked like defensively they could compete in the SEC. The Arkansas defense had a little trouble with the ECU runningback Dominique Lindsay, but the secondary did a good job of defending the spread and keeping things in front them, playing bend but don't break the whole game. The defense kept Arkansas' struggling offense in the game.
My Player of the Game: Tramain Thomas, Arkansas Safety
Valero Alamo Bowl, 9pm on ESPN
Michigan State Spartans (6-6) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-4)
The storylines in this are this: Michigan State has 11 players suspended for their involvements in a campus fight and Texas Tech suspended head coach Mike Leach before firing him on Dec. 30, a day before he was owed an $800,000 bonus so there’s some speculation there even though the accusations and Tech’s reasoning for his termination are clear.
Michigan State loses three key guys with those suspensions handed out: starting receivers BJ Cunningham and Mark Dell and starting cornerback Chris Rucker. Losing a starting defensive back is crucial going up against this explosive passing attack of the Red Raiders. Michigan State’s strength on defense is in its linebackers led by Greg Jones, but their pass defense ranks 103rd in the nation.
Texas Tech on the other hand is another one of those Big 12 defenses that are vastly improved and are second in the nation with 39 sacks led by Brandon Sharpe at defensive end. Defensive Coordinator Ruffin McNeill is the acting head coach for the game and I thought the loss of Leach was a bigger blow to Texas Tech than the eleven suspended for Michigan State was until I saw on footage of Texas Tech practices how much the players really rally around McNeill and how some of the players have come out and said harsh words toward their former coach showing that they aren’t necessarily disappointed that he’s gone.
I almost changed my pick to Michigan State after the Mike Leach situation and maybe I should, but I just think the Michigan State pass defense against the Texas Tech offense is a big mismatch unless the Spartans can get pressure on the quarterback.
Prediction: Texas Tech 42, Michigan State 28
Result: Texas Tech 41, Michigan State 31
Texas Tech's high powered offense was in full control on their first drive and marched right down the field for a Baron Batch touchdown run. Michigan State responded with a 46 yard breakaway run by true freshman Edwin Baker and all of a sudden we had a ball game. Michigan State proved they were here to fight despite missing 14 players, but Texas Tech wanted to come out and prove they don't need Mike Leach and maybe even promote Ruffin McNeill to be their next head coach and McNeill has made it clear he wants the job and he showed tonight that he is the right man for it.
Texas Tech came out and fumbled the opening kickoff the second half and lost all momentum as Michigan State took over the lead 21-20 and later built a 31-27 lead and McNeill made the decision to pull starting QB Taylor Patts in favor of Steven Sheffield and Sheffield provided a much needed spark to the team and the crowd went crazy when he took the field. He seems to be a fan favorite in Lubbock. All Sheffield had to do was lead his team to a fourth quarter comeback--easy stuff--Sheffield went 6-6 and hooked up with Detron Lewis to take the 34-31 lead. Then the Texas Tech defense got more pressure on Kirk Cousins like they had been all game long and Cousins just threw one up and it was intercepted by Frank Mitchem. Twice on the next drive Tech faced 4th downs in field goal range, but a field goal would have only made it a six point lead making it possible for Michigan State to win with a touchdown. Ruffin McNeill made the calls to go for it and Sheffield was very accurate and hit Alex Torres on a slant to convert the first fourth down and on the next one he hit Detron Lewis on a quick out route on a perfectly placed pass. Michigan State burned all its timeouts and a Baron Batch touchdown run straight up the middle pass a Michigan State blitz sealed the deal.
My Player of the Game: Steven Sheffield, Texas Tech Quarterback
Honorable Mention: Detron Lewis, Baron Batch, Taylor Potts, Rajon Henley
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