Friday, November 4, 2011

Week 7 Picks

THE TOP 25
No. 4 Wisconsin over Indiana, 48-10
Wisconsin beat Indiana 83-20 last year…without Russell Wilson. This could get ugly.

UPSET: No. 23 Michigan State over No. 11 Michigan, 35-30
I like the Michigan State defense enough to give the offense a chance to expose Michigan’s defense. Plus, the Spartans are at home.

No. 21 Texas A&M over No. 20 Baylor, 42-38
Texas A&M is last in the nation in pass defense but Baylor’s defense is worse…more
weapons on the A&M offense.

No. 15 South Carolina over Mississippi State, 24-17
Put Carolina on upset alert, but I think they’ll make it through Mississippi State in Connor Shaw’s second career start. The Bulldogs have been a 2011 disappointment.

No. 1 LSU over Tennessee, 38-13
LSU Defensive Coordinator John Chavis returns to Neyland Stadium with the nation’s best defense that will certainly dominate Tennessee without quarterback Tyler Bray who broke his thumb last week.

No. 6 Oklahoma State over No. 22 Texas, 42-24
Texas is 13-0, yes, undefeated in the Mack Brown era the week after the Oklahoma game. Last week, Texas was dominated by Oklahoma 55-17 and now here comes the Oklahoma State offense with Brandon Weeden, Justin Blackmon, Hubert Anyiam, Josh Cooper and Joseph Randle. Texas gave up 305 passing yards to Oklahoma in the first half. Oklahoma State hypothetically could double that. Texas lost a lot of games at home last year and this will be their first home loss of 2011.

No. 12 Georgia Tech over Virginia, 42-17
Georgia Tech’s offense hit a bump in the road last week against Maryland only scoring 21 points and struggling in the second half. To slow down a triple-option you really need a bye week to prepare and Maryland used Towson as its bye week, but Virginia had a legitimate bye week. The Wahoos have some talent coming through soon in the Mike London era but not enough right now to knock off Tech.

No. 16 Illinois over Ohio State, 23-16
A high-rising Illinois team that is 6-0 for the first time in the Ron Zook era gets a struggling Buckeyes team at home.

No. 2 Alabama over Ole Miss, 45-3
Alabama…Ole Miss…take your pick…yeah I’ll take Alabama.

No. 5 Boise State over Colorado State, 38-10
This is the last time Boise State will wear the all-blue uniforms in 2011. Yes, Boise State is wearing all blue for this game despite being the road team. Colorado State has opted to wear all-white.

No. 19 Virginia Tech over Wake Forest, 33-30
Wake Forest is fresh off of upsetting Florida State and the Demon Deacons are on a hot streak right now. Virginia Tech heads into Wake Forest and better be careful.

No. 8 Clemson over Maryland, 38-21
Maryland has been a huge disappointment at 2-3. I thought the Terps would be 4-1 at this point. Meanwhile, Clemson has been a pleasant surprise and now they’ll ruin Maryland’s homecoming.

UPSET: Texas Tech over No. 17 Kansas State, 35-28
Kansas State has to lose eventually right? I thought it would be last week to Missouri but boy is that Kansas State defense pretty good. However, not enough depth to hold off Texas Tech’s firepower in Lubbock.

UPSET: Florida over No. 24 Auburn, 30-24
True freshman Jacoby Brissett will start again for Florida and despite the stat book and end result, he played well last week at LSU. Now he gets another road test in Auburn but I really like Brissett and Florida is expected to finally open up the playbook which will demoralize Auburn’s defense.

No. 7 Stanford over Washington State, 56-10
Jeff Tuel could be back at quarterback for Washington State even though Marshall Lobbaestael has played great, but still…Tuel/Lobbaestael or Andrew Luck?

No. 3 Oklahoma over Kansas, 65-13
Kansas has the nation’s worst statistical defense but the nation’s 119th ranked pass defense, just ahead of Texas A&M for dead last. Why? Because Kansas gave up 66 points to Georgia Tech, but Tech did nothing but run for over 500 yards of total offense, not much passing there. Then came Oklahoma State which dropped 70 on Kansas last week through the passing game and Oklahoma should do about the same.

No. 9 Oregon over No. 18 Arizona State, 31-28
This game is going to be great. Arizona State came a few turnovers away from beating the Ducks last year in Phoenix, but now they’re going to get a taste of Autzen Stadium, perhaps college football’s toughest atmosphere. I like Oregon at home in a really really close game, because I am very high on this Arizona State team. A rematch of this game will happen in the Pac-12 Championship Game on Dec. 3. Just wait.

Good Matchups
North Carolina over Miami, 27-24
The UNC offense needs to get going soon and it better be Saturday to pick up a win. Miami and North Carolina are equally talented on offense but I give the defensive edge to North Carolina at home.

Penn State over Purdue, 24-10
Penn State defense will be too good for Purdue although Penn State will hurt with the loss of Derek Moye.

UPSET: Pittsburgh over Utah, 30-17
The game is in Pittsburgh this year and like Kyle Whittingham said, the BCS opponents have been bigger and more physical. Ray Graham will slice through Jordan Wynn-less Utah.

Missouri over Iowa State, 17-14
Two pretty good dual-threat quarterbacks in this one with James Franklin and Steele Jantz. The Missouri defense should be able to hold the Cyclones to under 20 points.

Rutgers over Navy, 35-28
Rutgers is doing well as my sleeper team so far but it’s always tough to face a triple-option team without a bye week to prepare for it. Rutgers did it last year against Army and won 23-20 in overtime and of course Navy does it better than Army. It’ll be interesting but I want to go with Rutgers.

SMU over Central Florida, 23-20
Central Florida has been another disappointment in 2011 after a stellar 2010 and a lot of the roster coming back. The offense has failed to score 20 points in its last three games. SMU isn’t the greatest defense but it is the much better offense and UCF’s defense isn’t what it used to be. I’ll take SMU by four, 28-24.

BYU over Oregon State, 20-13
Oregon State upset Arizona last week, can they score another one against BYU? Oregon State has lacked physicality this year and that’s what BYU will bring to the table.

Georgia over Vanderbilt, 27-17
Vanderbilt’s defense is pretty good, don’t count them out. They held Alabama in the first half last week and lead the nation in interceptions but Aaron Murray isn’t the type of quarterback to throw a lot of picks.

Iowa over Northwestern, 23-14
Iowa got humbled at Penn State last week after the offense was really shut down when they thought they were pretty good. The Iowa defense held its own and will again, however against Dan Persa.


The Rest
Cincinnati over Louisville, 34-17
Toledo over Bowling Green, 30-3
Temple over Buffalo, 48-14
Wyoming over UNLV, 34-14
Florida State over Duke, 33-17
Marshall over Rice, 24-16
Central Michigan over Eastern Michigan, 23-20
South Florida over Connecticut, 24-20
Ohio over Ball State, 27-10
Washington over Colorado, 34-17
Miami (OH) over Kent State, 24-3
Northern Illinois over Western Michigan, 35-10
UPSET: Tulane over UTEP, 17-13
UPSET: Western Kentucky over Florida Atlantic, 23-21
Nevada over New Mexico, 69-9
Louisiana-Lafayette over North Texas, 56-20
East Carolina over Memphis, 42-24
Troy over Louisiana-Monroe, 35-16
Idaho over New Mexico State, 24-6
Tulsa over UAB, 45-17
Utah State over Fresno State, 27-24

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