BBVA Compass Bowl, Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

January 8, 2011

One last weekend of college football gives us one game Saturday and one game Sunday night. Don't let the NFL Playoffs take center stage. Every bowl game is worth watching. Just ask a guy like me. These should be two great games to add to what has been another great bowl season that comes to an end on Monday with the BCS Championship.


Matchup Advantages

BBVA Compass Bowl: Pittsburgh (7-5) vs. Kentucky (6-6), Noon on ESPN
Pittsburgh
*Last Bowl Game 2009 Meineke Car Care Bowl, Won 19-17 over North Carolina
Pittsburgh was everyone’s favorite preseason to win the Big East and this team badly underperformed which resulted in the firing of Dave Wannstedt as head coach. Then they gave Coach Wannstedt the right to coach the bowl game and now even that is gone. Pittsburgh will have an interim coach.
To add to the turmoil, new head coach Mike Haywood hired from Miami of Ohio was fired after 16 days as Pitt head coach after he was arrested for domestic violence.
It all started with the week one overtime loss to Utah (a Utah team that was not very good no less) and star running back Dion Lewis was shut down in that game. That was the start of a not very good year for Lewis who was a preseason Heisman candidate. Later on, he split carries with Ray Graham.
The Pittsburgh offense underperformed and scoring three points in a home loss to Miami was devastating. With Tino Sunseri at quarterback, Lewis and Graham in the backfield, Mike Shanahan and Jon Baldwin out wide, I’ve been trying to defend this Pittsburgh team as the best two-loss team to the best three-loss to the best four-loss team in the country but now at 7-5 I have no faith left in the Panthers. The defense hasn’t played well at times and star Greg Romeus has been hurt and his counterpart on the other end, Jabaal Sheard is suspended for this bowl game.
Kentucky
*Last Bowl Game: 2009 Music City Bowl, Lost 21-13 to Clemson
Kentucky made headlines when they almost knocked off Auburn on Oct. 9 and then beat South Carolina the following week before being derailed by Georgia and Mississippi State. Kentucky then beat FCS Charleston Southern and lowly Vanderbilt to become bowl eligible but it could have been so much more for Kentucky.
Other news for Kentucky is that quarterback Mike Hartline has been suspended for this game so sophomore Morgan Newton will start. Seriously, if you watch this game for anything, watch it to see Newton. He got a couple starts next year and the guy is the real deal. I don’t want to make lofty comparisons but he has a Cam Newton skill set (it’s just a coincidence that they have the same last name I think). Newton this year hasn’t taken a lot of snaps so that’ll be key. In fact, Kentucky do-it-all man Randall Cobb has taken more snaps than Newton and has thrown three touchdown passes. Expect Cobb to be an even bigger part of the Kentucky offense in this game. They’re going to find different ways to get him the ball more.
What to watch: Which run game will provide more explosive plays.
Two great runners with the ball in their hands on both offenses. Dion Lewis and Ray Graham for Pittsburgh and Derrick Locke and Randall Cobb for Kentucky. For Pittsburgh, there’s rumors that this is Lewis’ last game and Coach Wannstedt gave the ball to whoever had the hot hand between Lewis and Graham. For Kentucky, I’m sure Cobb will touch the ball much more times than Locke with an offense that will be built around Cobb for this one game. Any one of those four guys just named can break a huge touchdown run though.
Motivation Factor: Kentucky. The attitude edge has to be on Kentucky’s side. After going 2-6 in SEC play they have something to prove. Pittsburgh honestly has more to prove after such a disappointing season because Pittsburgh is in the “just happy to be here at a bowl game” mode. Kentucky is here to prevent a losing season and they have continuity on their team. Randall Cobb will step up as a leader without Mike Hartline.
Summary
With what Pittsburgh has left of its team and the motivation factor for Kentucky, I think this could be another let down for Pitt. That defense will have to play inspired football to be able to contain Derrick Locke and Randall Cobb. I look for Morgan Newton to have a big game, he’s Kentucky’s future. This game is just a springboard for both schools but Pitt’s not on the verge of a losing season, though a disappointing one. It’s been witnessed that the motivation factor is sometimes the most significant one in bowl games. My original Bowl Mania Pick a long time ago was Pittsburgh. I can’t change that. I would not be surprised to see Kentucky win this game, though.
Players to watch: Pittsburgh WR Jon Baldwin; Kentucky AP Randall Cobb
Potential Impact Player: Pittsburgh WR Mike Shanahan; Kentucky QB Morgan Newton
Prediction: Pittsburgh 31, Kentucky 28


Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Nevada (12-1) vs. Boston College (7-5), 9:00pm on ESPN
Nevada
*Last Bowl Game: 2009 Hawaii Bowl, Lost 45-10 to SMU
The Nevada Wolf Pack: WAC Champions. Sound right? Actually the WAC has no tiebreaker rule so all three, Boise State, Nevada and Hawaii are Co-Champions, but here is Nevada playing in the Hunger Bowl that was reserved for the WAC Champion, simply because Boise State brokered a deal to play Utah in Las Vegas for bigger bucks.
Nevada finished the year at 12-1 and they’re nowhere near the discussion as best one-loss team. In fact, I’ve got plenty of three-loss teams ahead of them. The win over Boise was a one-night fluke. I don’t give them too much credit for that. Nevada really has to show me something they haven’t shown me yet.
The secondary is terrible and their only real impact player on defense is the end, Dontay Moch who leads the WAC in sacks.
Nevada has the nation’s third-best rushing attack with Colin Kaepernick and Vai Taua becoming college football’s all-time best statistical rushing duo.
Kaepernick showed drastic improvement as a quarterback in his senior year and his numbers did match up well against some Heisman candidates. He finished the year with 2,830 passing yards, 20 touchdowns and just seven interceptions, and 1,184 rushing yards and 20 more rushing touchdowns. He’s one of only three quarterbacks, Tim Tebow and Ricky Dobbs being the others, to ever throw and run for more 20 touchdowns. When he throws, his top receiver is Rishard Matthews who Boise didn’t have an answer for but he spreads the ball out to Brandon Wimberly, Virgil Green and Malcolm Shepherd too.
Kaepernick is one of my favorite guys out there and his life is a story of its own. This will be his final collegiate game.
Boston College
*Last Bowl Game: 2009 Emerald Bowl, Lost 24-13 to USC
Boston College is the only team in NCAA history to have a five game losing streak and a five game winning streak in the same season. It’s true. The Eagles were selected by guys like Kirk Herbstreit to be the ACC’s sleeper. They started 2-0 before losing five straight to Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, NC State, Florida State and Maryland before ripping off a five game win streak to end the year beating Clemson, Wake Forest, Duke, Virginia and Syracuse.
Boston College’s season high in points scored in conference play this year was 23 against Wake Forest. The offense averages just 18.9 points per game and the defense has really had to carry the team. Boston College boasts the No. 5 rushing defense in the country going against Nevada’s rushing attack. For BC to live up to that ranking is the only way they can beat Nevada.
The Eagles made the switch to true freshman quarterback Chase Rettig early on. He threw seven interceptions to six touchdowns but with the time off for bowl preparation it’ll be interesting to see if Boston College opens up the playbook for him. Junior running back Montel Harris did not play the last game and is their 1,000 yard rusher. The offense needs him to be healthy and ride him, otherwise true freshman Andre Williams, who had a big day in the season finale against Syracuse, will have a lot more pressure on him along with Rettig.
The Boston College defense is outstanding though, their numbers aren’t a direct result of playing against ACC offenses like Syracuse’s defense was a result of playing Big East offenses. The offenses in the ACC are actually really good and Boston College with linebackers Luke Keuchly and the inspirational Mark Herzlich held Virginia Tech to 19 points, Florida State and Maryland to 24 points and are giving up 19.8 points per game. The defense will be the only way to beat Nevada unless Boston College has really used this time off to revive their passing game to exploit the Nevada secondary.
What to watch: Colin Kaepernick vs. Mark Herzlich
Two inspirational senior leaders for their teams are playing their final games for their respective schools. Colin Kaepernick was adopted early on by the Kaepernick family and his goal as a senior was to beat Boise State and win the WAC. He’s done that, but his work is not done. He’s more than outlived his expectations during his career at Nevada and the story about his mother is intriguing. Kaepernick will suit up one last time for Nevada.
Mark Herzlich has returned after his battle with cancer that he won. He missed all of last season undergoing treatment and recovering and he has made a full recovery and become an inspiration against cancer for everyone in the country—not just athletes. Herzlich was once a dominant linebacker thought of as a first round draft pick. Now he has one last game to regain his old draft prospectus as he suits up for Boston College one last time. Herzlich also has a broken hand and is playing with a hard cast. There’s nothing that Mark Herzlich can’t overcome.
Motivation Factor: Boston College. Nevada has achieved their goal of beating Boise State. They showed some signs of hangover the next week against Louisiana Tech. They went on to win by 18 but it showed how dangerous the opponent can be when you’re not focused. Boston College has inspirational leaders on the team and they have gotten no respect from anyone. Nevada is a big favorite in this game and this entire month off they’ve heard about how they should run all over Boston College while Boston College has had to deal with that.
Summary
It’s strength vs. strength with Nevada’s run game against Boston College’s run defense. It is extremely difficult however to beat the pistol when you haven’t gone against it. There’s not much to look at on type on the pistol. It’s tough to identify where the ball is going until the ball has been transferred and the right or left of the runner has been determined. The Boston College defense is for real, but containing Colin Kaepernick on scrambles is what they won’t be able to do. Also, when we expect an offense to struggle during bowl season, we often get a shootout. Look for what Boston College does to exploit a poor Nevada defense. This game will be closer than people think.
Players to watch: Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick; Boston College LB’s Luke Keuchly, Mark Herzlich
Potential Impact Player: Nevada DE Dontay Moch; Boston College QB Chase Rettig
Prediction: Nevada 31, Boston College 24