November 19, 2010
Three weeks ago we were seeing three marquee programs (Florida, Penn State, and Texas) struggled and sit on the verge of losing three straight and suffering miserable seasons. Three weeks later, Penn State is bowl eligible, Florida can still win the SEC East, and Texas is on the verge of missing a bowl game for the first time in the Mack Brown.
ESPN's College Gameday is in Columbus, Ohio this weekend for the 3:30 matchup between Penn State, fresh off of Coach Joe Paterno's 400th career win, and Ohio State, still in the hunt for the Rose Bowl.
Somewhat surprising that Gameday is in Columbus but looking at the schedule there was really no where else to go. With that said, a lot of big matchups for Nov. 20, but this week is thin.
Last week Texas and Arizona both lost on national tv on PrimeTime but nonetheless I got to watch both of them play on my two tv's side-by-side.
For those of you that don't know me, of course Texas is my life, but I also root for Arizona, Houston, West Virginia, and Penn State. Texas and Arizona being my favorites. Both of them are again playing at primetime on national tv this week.
So I did a little math in my head and with the 35 bowl games included, I'm pace for about 208 games watched this year instead of 241. That's the college life. And yeah I haven't missed a bowl game in four years, but if Texas can at least make the Pinstripe Bowl in Yankee Stadium, I think it'll be worth traveling to New York and missing a few bowl games on TV to see my Longhorns play live.
Anyway, again I apologize for not getting my thoughts for last week posted, it was hell week for school.
There are a lot of chances for upsets this weekend, none of them too big though, and few will really happen. But again I've listed up my upset picks and put teams are on upset alert.
Here's what I'm ready for this weekend.
3:30 Games
Georgia at Auburn
Could this be the big upset everyone thinks may occur? Georgia over Auburn? Auburn needs this win to all but clinch a spot in the SEC Championship Game and perhaps, the national championship game. All of the allegations surfacing around Cam Newton have caused a major distraction whether the team will admit it or not.
Auburn holds the nation’s 94th pass defense which has been a problem. Georgia’s passing game is explosive with AJ Green and Aaron Murray really coming into his own at quarterback for the Bulldogs. I expect Auburn to go with Neiko Thorpe to try to size up on Green. Green was shut down against Florida by Janoris Jenkins, but Green still opens everything else up for the Georgia offense. If Auburn can at least stop the run game and put Georgia in all-passing situations, things will be easier.
I don’t see a big upset here, I see a good game. Cam Newton will play, and he will play well. The Georgia offensive line has always been a problem and now they’re going to have to prevent Auburn defensive tackle Nick Fairley from wreaking havoc. What is clear though is that Auburn will have to score to beat Georgia.
Prediction: Auburn 37, Georgia 34
X-Factor: Auburn RB Michael Dyer; Georgia WR AJ Green
Penn State at Ohio State
Does it matter that Penn State does not have a passing touchdown in Columbus? Because the last time they were there, they won.
It’s a different story every week, and Ohio State has taken a lot of strides defensively, but if you look back to week two in the Miami game, the Canes were able to throw the ball against the Buckeyes and it just so happened that Jacory Harris and Miami beat themselves. Harris threw four interceptions and Miami was still in position to win that game. Why am I bringing this up? Because new Penn State quarterback Matt McGloin does not turn the ball over, that’s the most important thing.
Three weeks ago we were talking about Penn State’s future, now they’re bowl eligible and on a three-game winning streak.
The defensive line really got after Dan Persa last week, that needs to continue. The offensive line play has been outstanding and that needs to continue. Evan Royster is hitting holes and Silas Redd is providing fireworks, that needs to continue. McGloin has been quick, accurate, and efficient, that needs to continue. All of that easier said than done. The offensive line has to deal with Cameron Heyward, and McGloin has to be weary of Chimdi Chekwa in the Ohio State secondary. If Penn State can run the ball and get to the second level, they have a chance.
Prediction: Ohio State 24, Penn State 21
X-Factor: Ohio State QB Terrelle Pryor; Penn State Offensive Line
7:00 Games
Mississippi State at Alabama
Upset brewing in Tuscaloosa? The key to this game is the Auburn-Georgia game. By kickoff of this game, Alabama will know their fate in the SEC West on whether Auburn won or not. If Auburn wins, it clinches the SEC West and Alabama will have nothing left to play for. Last time Alabama had nothing to play for they got blown out by Utah in the Sugar Bowl.
It will be an emotional game for Mississippi State has they dealt with the death of defensive end Nick Bell due to brain cancer. Bell is on the mind of every college football fan as the Bulldogs take the field today. You realize how quickly things change, three weeks ago Bell was starting on Mississippi State’s defensive line and now he is a victim of cancer.
On the field though, if Alabama plays like they have a reason to play, Mississippi State doesn’ t have enough firepower or balance on offense to beat Alabama, but it should be a good competitive game. Two outstanding defenses will be on display.
Mississippi State has allowed three touchdowns in a game just twice this season while Alabama has allowed more than three touchdowns just twice this season also, but both came in losses. When the defense doesn’t shut the opponent down, Alabama’s offense for whatever reason simultaneously struggles.
The Alabama defense is susceptible to big plays and big plays is what Mississippi State’s offense struggles to produce. In year two of the Dan Mullen era, they’re still relying heavily on the run game and Vic Ballard is starting to put together a good season, going over 100 rushing yards in his last three games.
Prediction: Alabama 24, Mississippi State 12
X-Factor: Alabama DT Marcel Dareus; Mississippi State WR Chad Bumphis
South Carolina at Florida
This is it. For the SEC East Division Title. The winner goes on to the SEC Championship game while the loser will have meaningless games left to play wondering what went wrong. Florida has controlled this division for so many years, but with their early struggles this season it became South Carolina’s division to lose. An upset to Kentucky on Oct. 16 and it became Florida’s to win.
Florida has reinvented itself and also got back Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey and the impact is clear with the speed. And Florida has really picked up the tempo on offense and uses three quarterbacks (John Brantley, Trey Burton, and TE Jordan Reed). Reed can throw the ball too and provides the power running while Burton is the quarterback of the future and a shifty runner and Brantley has the great arm and the pocket passer. For South Carolina is has to be difficult to prepare for what Florida has turned itself into offensively.
South Carolina has never won in The Swamp, they are 0-12. Things have to change sometime don’t they? Looking at this game on first glance it seems obvious that Florida will win and Steve Spurrier will be put back on the hot seat. But the more you look at it, you have to like the matchup, despite South Carolina being 0-12 on the road against Florida.
Marcus Lattimore, the outstanding true freshman back for Carolina has been battling a knee injury and as a fan wanting a great game you hope that knee doesn’t bother him. If Lattimore isn’t at full-go then South Carolina loses by double digits. If Lattimore is 100%, Florida can only slow him down but not stop him and it’s going to help Stephen Garcia in the passing game. Stats show that Garcia struggles when Lattimore is out, that is a direct correlation.
Florida’s defense isn’t what it used to be, and the strength relies in the secondary with three returning starters. Janoris Jenkins is among the best cornerbacks in the nation and he shut down Georgia’s AJ Green, but can he do it again to South Carolina’s Alshon Jeffrey? I think Jeffrey gets the better of this matchup today, and it’s going to be so much fun to watch, but Jeffrey is too strong and just eats away at corners. It’s going to be a true test for Jenkins. Alshon will make a big play or two and with that, to go along with Lattimore running, and South Carolina’s defense being disciplined and Garcia not turning the ball over (it’s a lot to ask) but with all that, South Carolina will win this game. Lose a part, and Florida wins. It’s hard to say, but this year it’s true, South Carolina is the better football team.
And don’t we want to see some new faces in the SEC Championship, aren’t we tired of Florida-Alabama? Of course it’s all contingent on what Auburn does, if Auburn wins, I’d like to see an Auburn-Florida game, if Auburn loses, I’d like to see a South Carolina-Alabama rematch.
Prediction: South Carolina 30, Florida 27 or it could end up being Florida 30, South Carolina 17. It’s one of those games.
X-Factor: South Carolina RB Marcus Lattimore; Florida WR/RB Chris Rainey
PrimeTime 8:00
Oklahoma State at Texas
Say what you want about Texas, and say what you want about me. A guy in my math class yesterday said to me, “I thought you’d be done with Texas football by now.” Proof right there that that guy does not know me. I give everything in my heart to the University of Texas. That will simply never change.
At 4-5, Texas must win two of its final three games just to become bowl-eligible. The problem is, if they become bowl-eligible they’ll end up likely in the Pinstripe Bowl in Yankee Stadium and that’s not very good incentive because these kids in Texas just don’ t want to play in a cold weather bowl game, that’s the truth. So how hard will Texas play? After an undefeated season a year ago and an appearance in the national championship game, the Texas program has suffered a more than miserable season. They have become complacent, taken everything for granted, and Mack Brown announced that he can no longer trust his players to give any kind of effort. It’s true, I have seen no heart from that Texas football team outside of Sam Acho. But they need some leadership on offense too, Garrett Gilbert is a quiet kind of confidence and Texas is used to having vocal guys with a mojo like Vince Young and Colt McCoy, great leaders.
People ask me what’s wrong with Texas and the answer is that the defense has become too finesse and not physical. Last year this was the nation’s best defense and Texas led the country with 26 non-offensive touchdowns and led the nation in turnover margin. Now Texas is 118th in turnover margin. The defense isn’t making plays and has become soft in the middle and allowing teams to run all over them, when this was the nation’s best rush defense in 2009. Teams don’t even throw the ball anymore because truth is, this is still one of the nation’s best secondaries in Texas, but teams don’t have to risk attacking it if they can just run. Kansas State has zero passing yards but a huge lead at halftime last week. It’s just embarrassing. Texas was able to beat Nebraska because being finesse, they specialize in stopping the zone-read and so they were able to stop Nebraska’s run game, but teams like Kansas State, Oklahoma, Iowa State, UCLA, Baylor that all run downhill running games, Texas has given up to them.
Now they face an Oklahoma State team that boasts the nation’s No. 2 offense and aside from last season when Texas dominated and forced Zac Robinson into five turnovers, Texas and Oklahoma State have always played each other tough. My concern in this game is not the Texas defense, even though Oklahoma State has Kendall Hunter. Hunter willg et his 150 rushing yards, but I guarantee you that the nation’s best passing offense in Oklahoma State will not pass for over 200 yards. The nation’s leading receiver, Justin Blackmon, will have a mediocre day. Texas has shut down prolific receivers in the past with Texas Tech’s Lyle Leong and Oklahoma’s Ryan Broyles, believe me, Will Muschamp has a plan for Blackmon. All Texas needs to do is force Oklahoma State into passing because the pass rush is outstanding, we just haven’t seen it in recent weeks with teams only needing to run. I’m interested to see Muschamp’s approach with Hunter.
Offensively, Texas has to run. After throwing five interceptions last week, it’s finally clear that Garrett can’t do it all himself, he desperately needs help. This Oklahoma State defense is not good, even though some say it’s good enough to stop Texas. That is a direct insult and the Texas offense needs to take that to heart. Some of the guys are already looking to next year, asking us to believe in them next year, WHAT ABOUT THIS YEAR? Why can’t we believe in you for the last three games of the season, why do we have to wait until next year to see good football, to see a championship-caliber team. Give us a preview of it right now. If Texas gives full effort, they win. If they’re more concerned about the nation’s number one recruiting class coming in next year with the nation’s number one running back recruit, Malcolm Brown, if they want to wait for him to get to Austin before they start running the ball then it’s a mistake. You can run against Oklahoma State. Greg Davis needs to attack early with Tre’ Newton and Fozzy Whittaker.
Oklahoma State is No. 10 in the BCS, and Texas always plays well against top ten teams. Texas can’t win the conference this year but they have a chance to play spoiler, when you’re as successful as Texas has been, you don’t get many chances to play spoiler and sometimes playing spoiler is just as fun, the players just need to realize that. Oklahoma State controls its own destiny to win the Big 12, but Texas can alter that dramatically. You have to think they’re going to get going eventually, they can’t lose this game and force them into playing two “must-win” games to end the season because then all of a sudden, you’re under pressure while you’re playing Florida Atlantic and that’s going to get to their heads. They can stay out of that position with a win tonight.
Prediction: Texas 30, Oklahoma State 28
X-Factor: Texas Pride; Oklahoma State RB Kendall Hunter
USC at Arizona
Arizona was controlled by Stanford last week. If anyone has a chance of beating Oregon, it’s Arizona. But they have to continue to play well. They did not play well last week and now they could take USC for granted. USC has a good defense, Arizona has a better than good defense, but Arizona offensively was better with Matt Scott at quarterback. I love Nick Foles, I have nothing against Nick Foles, but with Scott at quarterback the offense had better rhythm and an added dimension as long as Scott was making good decisions and he was.
USC has so many weapons on offense was almost able to keep up with Oregon’s scoring. With Ronald Johnson and Robert Woods at receiver and the explosive running game, Arizona won’t be able to dominate USC. It’s going to be about Arizona’s offense outscoring USC, and I really believe they won’t be able to run with Grigsby and Antolin and Foles will make a mistake or two to cost Arizona the game, even if USC doesn’t have answer in the secondary for Juron Criner.
Prediction: USC 34, Arizona 28
X-Factor: USC WR Robert Woods; Arizona WR Juron Criner
Upset Alert to...
Army against Kent State
Michigan against Purdue
Virginia Tech against North Carolina
Troy against Florida International
Texas A&M against Baylor
Alabama against Mississippi State
Stanford against Arizona State
Florida State against Clemson
Houston against Tulsa
Nevada against Fresno State
Upset Picks
Virginia over Maryland
Louisville over South Florida
Rutgers over Syracuse
USC over Arizona
Texas over Oklahoma State
Predictions for my Top 25
#1 Boise State 48, Idaho 3
Result: Boise 52, Idaho 14
#2 Oregon 48, California 16
#3 TCU 41, San Diego State 13
Result: TCU 40, SDST 35
#4 Auburn 37, Georgia 34
Result; AUB 49, UGA 31
#5 Nebraska 48, Kansas 13
#6 LSU 34, LA-Monroe 6
#7 Stanford 31, Arizona State 27
#8 Wisconsin 41, Indiana 17
Result: WIS 83, IND 20
#9 Alabama 24, #18 Mississippi State 12
#10 Ohio State 28, Penn State 21
Result: OSU 38, PSU 14
#11 Arkansas 56, UTEP 13
#12 Iowa 27, Northwestern 20
Result: NW 21, IOWA 17
#14 Oklahoma 45, Texas Tech 24
Result: OU 45, TTU 7
#15 Utah 38, Notre Dame 17
Result: ND 28, Utah 3
#16 Oklahoma State 28, Texas 30
#17 Virginia Tech 30, North Carolina 24
Result: VT 26, UNC 10
#19 Missouri 34, Kansas State 17
Result: Mizzou 38, KSU 28
#20 Arizona 28, USC 34
#21 South Carolina 30, #22 Florida 27
#23 Nevada 35, Fresno State 30
#24 Pittsburgh 28, Connecticut 13
Result: UCONN 30, PITT 28
#25 Texas A&M 41, Baylor 27
Games I’m planning to watch:
Noon: Iowa-Northwestern, Indiana-Wisconsin, South Florida-Louisville, Miami-Georgia Tech, Boston College-Duke, Southern Miss-Central Florida, Cincinnati-West Virginia
3:30… Georgia-Auburn, Penn State-Ohio State, Virginia Tech-North Carolina, Syracuse-Rutgers, Maryland-Virginia, San Diego State-TCU
6:00… Louisiana Tech-New Mexico State
7:00… Mississippi State-Alabama, South Carolina-Florida
8:00… Oklahoma State-Texas, USC-Arizona, Clemson-Florida State, Tulsa-Houston
10:30… Nevada-Fresno State
No comments:
Post a Comment