This Weekend's Bowl Games

December 21, 2009


Saturday, December 19
New Mexico Bowl, 4:30pm on ESPN
Fresno State Bulldogs (8-5) vs. Wyoming Cowboys (7-6)
It's postseason time in college football! Fresno State is back in the New Mexico Bowl to open the bowl season this year. Wyoming is a rejuvenated football team under first year head coach Dave Christenson. Fresno finished the season winning 7 of their last 8 games including that unreal ending in the season finale against Illinois. The Bulldogs are a veteran club while Wyoming is just breaking onto the stage. This win would be huge for the Cowboys to establish themselves as an above-average team to strengthen the Mountain West Conference's standing in its bid to become an automatic-BCS qualifying conference. But there's too much firepower on Fresno's offense. Tailback Ryan Mathews leads the nation with 151.3 yards per game and I watched him a few times this year and he is much more explosive than he looks. Wyoming's defense gives up 170.5 rushing yards per game. In other words, they're probably not stopping Mathews. Don't sleep on Fresno's passing game either with Ryan Colburn finding Seyi Arijotutu downfield.
Prediction: Fresno State 38, Wyoming 17
Result: Wyoming 35, Fresno State 28 (Double Overtime)
Wow. What a shock. For the second straight year, the Fresno State Bulldogs are upset in the New Mexico Bowl. Wyoming almost had a heartbreak as Ian Watts missed a 40 yard field goal that would have won the game in the first overtime after Wyoming's goal-line stand stopping Ryan Mathews on the half-yard line three times and also preventing a QB sneak. In the second overtime, he didn't have anything to worry about thanks to the sensational play of true freshman Wyoming quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels. Samuels was flushed out of the pocket and on the run made a perfectly placed pass to David Leonard in the endzone who made a great catch. Fresno had a chance to tie it, but did not put the ball in the hands of their best playmaker, Ryan Mathews, and it cost them as Ryan Colburn got sacked on 4th down to end the game.
Fresno had a scare when Mathews went into the locker room in the first quarter, but he turned out to be okay. Mathews finished with 144 yards on 30 carries and didn't break off any big runs, while Wyoming had a couple of big plays against the Fresno defense. I am very impressed with the young quarterback Wyoming has and how the defense rose up in the clutch especially linebacker Josh Biezuns, who was the stopper all game long and made three crucial stops that saved the game in overtime.
My Player of the Game: Austyn Carta-Samuels, Wyoming Quarterback
Honorable Mention: Josh Biezuns, Wyoming Linebacker


St. Petersburg Bowl, 8pm on ESPN
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-4) vs. Central Florida Knights (8-5)
Central Florida is no longer a pushover and showed that especially in their upset of Houston. Rutgers sports the same colors as Houston, but they won't lose to UCF. The Knights have one of the best pass rushes in the nation with Bruce Miller and they have the 4th best rushing defense, but Rutgers has won its last three bowl games and doesn't get big plays through the run game very often except with true freshman receiver Mohamed Sanu in the wildcat which has been very effective. Houston was also a team that doesn't play much defense; Rutgers is second in the nation in tackles for loss. Rutgers is still progressing towards contending in the Big East and head coach Greg Schiano is trying to open bigger recruiting efforts in Florida. This game will be a good showcase for the Florida recruits interested in Rutgers. While Rutgers is young, true freshman quarterback Tom Savage has been one of the best quarterbacks in the Big East. I watched this kid play in the High School All-America game last year and he is the real deal and he and Sanu will be a good quarterback-receiver duo for years to come. Rutgers also has one of the best left tackles in the nation with junior Anthony Davis (I rank #3 offensive tackle for the 2010 NFL Draft), and I think Davis should be able to lock up Miller. If Savage has time and isn't rushed in mistakes, Rutgers will roll in this game.
Prediction: Rutgers 27, Central Florida 20
Result: Rutgers 45, Central Florida 24
Rutgers get their fourth straight bowl victory. Central Florida got a spark on the opening kickoff with Quincy McDuffie returning the ball deep into Rutgers territory, but then Brett Hodges threw a pick and turnovers would become a theme in the game. Rutgers never did really get any kind of ground game going against the Central Florida run defense, but true freshman Mohamed Sanu rushed for two touchdowns as he has been very effective through the wildcat offense. But, Rutgers also took advantage of a weak Central Florida secondary as true freshman quarterback Tom Savage had a career day throwing for 294 yards and two touchdowns, but also an interception but that ball was tipped. The big question coming into the game was Rutgers receiver Tim Brown battling a hamstring injury; he's their top playmaker and he played at about 95% and had a 100 yard receiving day. After Hodges got hurt for UCF, Rob Calabrese came in and provided a spark offensively and led a late touchdown drive, but the ensuing onside kick attempt was fielded cleanly by my player of the game, the undersized linebacker, Damaso Munoz took it to the house doing a front flip into the endzone to seal the deal.
One thing that I'm still trying to find out about is Rutgers cornerback Devin McCourty who left the game with an injury. McCourty is Rutgers' top defensive NFL prospect, while left tackle Anthony Davis is projected a first-round pick if the junior declares for the draft.
My Player of the Game: Damaso Munoz, Rutgers Linebacker
Honorable Mention: Mohamed Sanu, Rutgers Receiver


Sunday, December 20
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl, 8:30pm on ESPN
Southern Miss Golden Eagles (7-6) vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (10-3)
Southern Miss had a chance to win Conference USA until they lost quarterback Austin Davis to a torn ACL. Middle Tennessee is going for a 10 win season for the first time in a long time. Statistically, these two teams are identical when placed side by side in almost every category. Middle Tennessee however has the more stout defense, while Southern Miss has more playmakers on the field. Junior Martevious Young has filled in very nicely for Davis and has thrown only one interception on the season. At quarterback on the other side is one of the biggest playmakers in the Sun Belt Conference with Dwight Dasher. The Blue Raiders also lead the nation in tackles for loss and have a good pass rush, so it will be important for the Eagles to be able to run the ball with Damion Fletcher, who is the most underrated player in the country. If Middle Tennessee can take away Fletcher (which they will not), and force Southern Miss to pass, they'll be finding Young in the backfield.
Prediction: Southern Miss 31, Middle Tennessee 27
Result: Middle Tennessee 42, Southern Miss 32
Middle Tennessee finishes its best season as part of the FBS with its first 10-win season as Dwight Dasher put on a show and joined the list of nine players to throw for 2,000 yards and rush for 1,000 in the same season. Southern Miss took an early 14-0 lead in the first quarter as the Blue Raiders had a scare when Dasher went down on the turf with an apparent knee injury, but Dasher came back a play later and from the 2nd quarter on, it was Middle Tennessee's game.
Southern Miss never had an answer to stop the zone-read that Dasher and company continued to run as the defense also stepped up its game in the second quarter and got to Martevious Young on every down. Southern Miss runningback Damion Fletcher got enough yards to rush for 1,000 to become the ninth player in FBS history to rush for 1,000 yards all four seasons and he moved up to 8th on the all-time FBS rushing list by passing Herschel Walker and LaDanian Tomlinson, but Fletcher was completely shut down in the second half. Southern Miss was forced to pass and Young never looked off any of his receivers leading to his two interceptions. MTSU middle linebacker Danny Carmichael is their main blitzer and he was found in the backfield every play except his 4th quarter interception that led to Dasher's final touchdown run to close out the game even though Southern miss made it interesting with a touchdown at the end, but a failed two-point conversion attempt and a failed onside kick attempt put the game in the books for good. Middle Tennessee's up-tempo offense was too fast for Southern Miss who never had time to get set on defense as Middle Tennessee used nothing but the zone-read with Dasher keeping and short screen passes with big yards after the catch. Dasher finished with 201 rush yards, 162 pass yards, and four touchdowns.
My Player of the Game: Dwight Dasher, Middle Tennessee Quarterback
Honorable Mention: Danny Carmichael, Middle Tennessee Linebacker