This highly anticipated week of college football has finally arrived. It all started with Toledo losing it’s first conference game in a 63-60 shootout loss to Northern Illinois. The Huskies now control the MAC West Division. Oh, you don’t care about the MAC? Well, there’s LSU-Alabama this week, too.
It’s pretty clear that LSU and Alabama are the two best teams in the country and the BCS tries to match up the two best teams to play for the national championship. So, there’s been a lot of talk already about a LSU-Alabama rematch in the national championship game. Could it happen? Absolutely. Should it? Absolutely not. If Alabama wins tomorrow and LSU wins the rematch, what does that prove? Nothing, except that LSU is the national champion and Alabama isn’t or vice versa. Saturday night, everything should be settled between these two teams. It will be like we crown the national champion tomorrow and from here on out, someone tries to beat the national champion for the national championship.
If you want LSU and Alabama to play again, then you might as well have them play each other as the SEC Championship Game and then again in the BCS Title game and say best 2-of-3 winner is your national champion.
For any kind of BCS controversy stemming from this game, first it has to live up to the hype. If one team dominates, all arguments go out the window.
Is it 8 p.m. Saturday night yet?
NO. 1 LSU AT NO. 2 ALABAMA
Okay, let’s take this slow and break it down.
Quarterback: Advantage LSU
Running backs: Advantage Alabama
Receivers: Advantage LSU
Tight End: Advantage LSU
Offensive Line: Advantage Alabama
Defensive Line: Advantage LSU
Linebackers: Advantage Alabama
Safeties: Advantage Alabama
Corners: Advantage LSU
Special Teams: Advantage LSU
LSU goes into Tuscaloosa as the number one team in the country but an underdog. No visiting team has more wins in Bryant-Denney Stadium than LSU. LSU won this game last year 24-21 on a late Josh Jasper field goal.
The experience of Jarrett Lee at quarterback is going to be vital and Lee has become more than just a game manager, the man can throw the ball deep down the field. For AJ McCarron, his development has progressed as planned and he’s very efficient with the ball and is an underrated passer. McCarron throws for 224 yards per game and he’s going to need a good performance to beat LSU.
All the talk is about these two defenses but the two defenses aren’t playing each other. Let’s look at the matchups they face. Alabama can really run the ball with Trent Richardson and company and LSU’s weakness (if they have one) on defense is at the linebacker position. It is tough to run against LSU but it seems Alabama’s offensive line can have an advantage in overpowering LSU physically.
For LSU offensively, they have a lot of targets in Reuben Randle, Russell Shepard, Odell Beckham and Deangelo Peterson. Alabama has a very good secondary with safeties Robert Lester and Mark Barron and corners Dre Kirkpatrick, DeQuan Menzie and Dee Milliner. Alabama’s corners have struggled at times without safety help and Kirkpatrick especially was burnt on double moves several times in the Florida game against Andre Debose.
One of these defenses have to give in as the game goes on. Alabama figures to have the advantage because they are more physical and can wear down LSU. LSU might not be able to pound away with Spencer Ware, but Alabama could with Trent Richardson and that offensive line. To stop Richardson, LSU likes to have eight or even nine in the box to stop the run and don’t be surprised if they go to that. The Tigers have to make Alabama’s passing game beat them, McCarron doesn’t exactly have an A+ group of receivers and his go-to man is Marquis Maze, the guy who was the third receiver two years ago and isn’t very big and physical.
Alabama is the more physical defense, LSU is much faster and they really trust Morris Claiborne and Tyrann Mathieu in one-on-one coverage outside.
Alabama should know where Tyrann Mathieu is at all times on the field, he’s LSU’s biggest playmaker and this game could be determined by a single turnover. I think Alabama has two turnovers and LSU ends up with one, and that difference could be the ballgame.
LSU’s punt unit is the best in the nation with Brad Wing and the coverage team allowing only seven yards in punt returns. On the flip side, Marquis Maze is a great returner.
I like Alabama’s advantage at home, but I like LSU’s chances of winning on the road. We’ll see the coaching duel between Les Miles and Nick Saban and which one has his team more focused. Miles has been loose while Saban strives for perfection.
LSU has committed just three turnovers all season, scored first in every game and has trailed for just six minutes and 33 seconds this season.
This is why Les Miles stayed to coach LSU and did not leave for the Michigan job.
Pick: LSU 19, Alabama 17
THE REST OF THE BCS TOP 25
UPSET: Iowa over No. 15 Michigan, 35-28
Last year, Michigan totaled 522 yards to Iowa’s 383 and still lost despite a 21-point fourth quarter. Keep in mind, Denard Robinson left the game with injury. Now it’s a completely different offense for Michigan with a healthy Denard Robinson. Iowa is coming off an ugly loss to Minnesota thanks to Marqueis Gray’s last second sprint to the endzone. Iowa struggled with Gray’s dual-threat ability and now here comes Robinson. Greg Matison has done a very nice job with Michigan’s defense but I don’t think they’re quite where they want to be yet and Iowa can exploit some things if James Vanderberg plays well and Marcus Coker establishes the ground game. Iowa won in the Big House last year and I like them to upset Michigan this time.
No. 17 Michigan State over Minnesota, 38-7
Minnesota is on an emotional high after picking up its first B1G win last week over Iowa only to get brought back down to earth this week against a Michigan State team that needs to make a statement after playing so poorly against Nebraska.
No. 21 Texas over Texas Tech, 38-35
Texas needs to be on Upset Alert in Austin. Texas Tech has given up a lot of rushing yards in its three losses and gives up 225.7 rushing yards per game which ranks 114th in the nation. Texas dominated Kansas last week with over 43 minutes of possession thanks to the running game that ranks 17th nationally with 218.9 yards per game. The Texas secondary which was a weakness coming into the season has improved every week and gives up 192.3 yards per game while Carrington Byndom has turned into maybe the best corner in the Big 12. Texas Tech has three go-to receivers with Alex Torres, Eric Ward and Darrin Moore. Texas Tech’s defense isn’t stopping anybody, this game will be hinged on what Texas’ defense is able to do and if they can get after the quarterback, Seth Doege.
No. 24 West Virginia over Louisville, 38-17
It’s finally time for 2010’s national sack leader, Bruce Irvin, to get going against a Louisville offensive line that has given 108 sacks this season. Irvin so far has only 2.5 sacks. Louisville is coming off back-to-back wins against Rutgers and Syracuse which are the last two teams West Virginia played as well but a trip to Morgantown won’t end well for the Cardinals while West Virginia tries to stay in the Big East title hunt. This could be a trap game if the Mountaineers are looking ahead to Cincinnati next week.
No. 18 Georgia over New Mexico State, 56-3
Richard Samuel is lost for the season with a knee injury for Georgia while star freshman running back Isaiah Crowell has been suspended for this game along with Carlton Thomas and Ken Malcolme. I don’t think there’s anything else to say about this game…it’s New Mexico State.
No. 4 Stanford over Oregon State, 38-16
What a game Stanford just played against USC in triple-overtime. Can the Cardinal keep the focus now against Oregon State with the showdown with Oregon looming next week? Oregon State got its first Pac-12 win last week despite three interceptions and three fumbles (one lost). Oregon State lacks playmakers around James Rodgers.
No. 6 Oklahoma over Texas A&M, 52-34
On the bright side, Texas A&M’s three losses are by a combined 12 points. On the downside, Texas A&M led by 17, 18 and 11 at halftime in those three losses. After dropping out of the BCS Standings, the Aggies head to Norman, Oklahoma where Oklahoma never loses, but already lost once this year (Texas Tech) so it won’t happen again. Oklahoma’s passing attack is going to have fun with Texas A&M’s nation’s worst passing defense. And on the bright side for A&M fans, their team won’t blow a halftime lead again…they won’t even have one.
No. 10 Nebraska over Northwestern, 34-24
Dan Persa had an outstanding day in Northwestern’s rout over Indiana last week, but it’s hard to see Northwestern beating Nebraska in Lincoln. Unfortunately for Northwestern, they can drop just one more game and still be bowl eligible, but on the schedule after Nebraska is also Michigan State. Northwestern will have to win one of those games to make the postseason. Looking back, the Wildcats know that Army loss is the difference between a 6-6 season and a 5-7 season.
No. 20 Wisconsin over Purdue, 48-13
Wisconsin was beat two weeks in a row by a prayer of a throw. They are tied with Purdue in the Big Ten Standings. That’ll change after this week.
No. 25 Southern Miss over East Carolina, 42-31
Southern Miss’ offense has tremendous balance this year between Austin Davis throwing the ball around and the Southern Miss running game with backs sharing carries. Imagine if the passing game still had DeAndre Brown who entered the 2011 NFL Draft and went undrafted. Davis doesn’t have a star group of receivers but is efficient and spreads the ball around. On the other side, East Carolina’s air-raid offense might pose problems for Southern Miss, but as always, ECU doesn’t play defense despite being coached by a defensive-minded guy.
No. 13 Houston over UAB, 59-20
One team is named Houston. One team is named UAB. One team has Case Keenum. One team doesn’t.
No. 7 Arkansas over No. 9 South Carolina, 31-13
Arkansas’ has two close wins in its last two games over Ole Miss and Vanderbilt and now face a more formidable opponent in South Carolina. Arkansas gives up a lot of rushing yards but South Carolina is without Marcus Lattimore.
Connor Shaw is struggling and the Gamecocks are struggling as a whole. Look at South Carolina’s schedule and its only win remaining this season could be against The Citadel.
South Carolina’s pass defense ranks third in the nation but Arkansas will be too much.
No. 19 Arizona State over UCLA, 48-13
UCLA needs Datone Jones and the pass rush to get going. Arizona State gives up a lot of sacks, but it’s still the end for Rick Neuheisel and Arizona State clinches the Pac-12 South Division.
No. 3 Oklahoma State over No. 14 Kansas State, 52-24
Kansas State was finally blasted by Oklahoma last week and they now get to be a part of “Getting Blasted Part 2”.
No. 5 Boise State over UNLV, 56-3
Boise State needs to start racking up the style points for the BCS so the wins will start to come at bigger and bigger margins.
Quarterback Kellen Moore goes for career win No. 46, which would make him the winningest player in NCAA history, passing former-Texas quarterback Colt McCoy.
No. 8 Oregon over Washington, 45-34
Washington is going to give Oregon’s defense a test but the Ducks will overcome. It won’t help their style points in the BCS, however.
GOOD MATCHUPS OF UNRANKED TEAMS
Florida over Vanderbilt, 31-28
It’s going to be a great, close game. Vanderbilt has a ball hawking secondary that picks up a lot of interceptions and the defense is so overlooked.
UPSET: Maryland over Virginia, 24-20
Maryland has to fight for something. The team hasn’t shown quit despite the struggles.
UPSET: North Carolina over NC State, 34-17
NC State has won five in a row in this series, it’s finally time for the TarHeels to break through, using its defense against a porous NC State offense.
Miami over Duke, 24-21
Upset Alert here so don’t be surprised if Duke wins this game. Duke is a few turnovers away from being bowl eligible.
FIU over Western Kentucky, 30-24
Five Sun Belt teams are fighting for two bowl spots in the postseason. Western Kentucky is making a case for a bowl game this year in Bobby Rainey’s senior season but FIU is the reigning champion just trying to make the postseason.
UPSET: Rutgers over South Florida, 34-31
What happened to USF? 0-3 in the Big East for a team that many liked to win the conference. Three of the Bulls’ four wins are against Ball State, Florida A&M and UTEP. That’s pretty sad. Rutgers blew a lead against West Virginia last week but I think more highly of this Rutgers team than a lot of other people do.
UPSET: Pittsburgh over Cincinnati
Cincinnati leads the Big East right now but Pittsburgh is going to change that. The Panthers are coming off a well played win and need to keep the intensity up for this game too. If they play well, they beat Cincinnati.
THE REST
UPSET: Syracuse over Connecticut, 31-20
Ohio State over Indiana, 38-7
UPSET: Eastern Michigan over Ball State, 31-28
Iowa State over Kansas, 42-17
TCU over Wyoming, 38-17
SMU over Tulane, 44-17
UPSET: Ole Miss over Kentucky, 28-24
UTEP over Rice, 34-31
Louisiana-Lafayette over Louisiana-Monroe, 34-10
Air Force over Army, 35-21
Navy over Troy, 35-30
Arizona over Utah, 41-28
Idaho over San Jose State, 34-13
Arkansas State over Florida Atlantic, 34-0
California over Washington State, 27-21
UPSET: Missouri over Baylor, 38-35
Tennessee over Middle Tennessee, 33-10
Mississippi State over UT-Martin, 52-9
Fresno State over Louisiana Tech, 28-20
San Diego State over New Mexico, 38-13
Notre Dame over Wake Forest, 31-27
Hawaii over Utah State, 41-31
No comments:
Post a Comment