Week 9 Picks

It's Halloween Weekend and Week 9 of the college football season. Week 9, already. Where has the season gone? The BCS picture is beginning to shape up but we are still a long, long way from determining the national champion. Okay, actually maybe the national champion will be determined next week, so we're not that far off. Yeah, everyone is looking ahead to next week's LSU-Alabama matchup, but don't forget we have games this week, too.

(I'll never forget Halloween Weekend 2008. Michael Crabtree's catch with one second left to end the dream season for Texas. It's a terrble memory for me, but it is my most memorable Halloween weekend moment.)

Five teams control their own destiny in the Big Ten: Michigan State, Nebraska, Iowa, Penn State and Wisconsin.
Six teams control their own destiny in the ACC: Clemson, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Virginia and Duke.
Three teams control their own destiny in the Big 12: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Kansas State.
In the Big East - well, in the Big East let's just say that six of the eight teams can still win the conference. It is wide open.

The Sun Belt Conference is even worth taking a look at because only two Sun Belt teams can go bowling and the most consistent, Troy, is all but eliminated from that this year because of the emergence of Western Kentucky and Louisiana-Lafayette. Then, there's Florida International and Arkansas State which were in the preseason discussion. Of the five Sun Belt teams mentioned, only two can make the postseason.

Undefeateds Oklahoma State, Stanford and Clemson will all be tested this week. Will all of them come away unscathed? Who has the bigger challenge: Stanford going into the Coliseum or Clemson facing Georgia Tech? The Pac-12 picture is far from complete as Stanford has USC this week and Oregon in two weeks.

But let's not look too far ahead, there's always week nine that can add a lot more memorable moments of the 2011 college football season.

(by the way, I'm against an LSU-Alabama rematch in the national championship game, so let's hope Stanford and Clemson keep winning).

My Rankings
MY WEEK 9 PICKS
(home team is underlined)
The BCS Top 25
UPSET: No. 11 Michigan State over No. 14 Nebraska, 27-24
Nebraska is a slight favorite at home in this game while Michigan State comes off the last-second win over Wisconsin. Michigan State has the nation’s 8th best rushing defense to go against Nebraska’s primarily rushing attack. Michigan State allowed 220 rushing yards to Wisconsin. Michigan State also gets William Gholston back on defense and can force Taylor Martinez into mistakes.

No. 16 Texas A&M over Missouri, 38-31
Put the Aggies on upset alert, but they should be able to come through. A lot of playmakers on both offenses but Missouri’s James Franklin has been committing a lot of turnovers lately. Missouri needs a win desperately sitting at 3-4 with Baylor, Texas and Texas Tech still left on the schedule.

No. 18 Michigan over Purdue, 38-24
Purdue upset Illinois last week while Michigan comes off the bye. Michigan still doesn’t play much defense but Denard Robinson will outscore Purdue.

No. 10 Arkansas over Vanderbilt, 30-17
Arkansas got a scare from Ole Miss last week in the 29-24 win. Vanderbilt has the ability to put a similar scare into Arkansas but the Razorbacks should be awake and better prepared. Vanderbilt is tops in the nation in interceptions going against Arkansas’ passing offense.

No. 12 Virginia Tech over Duke, 38-17
Duke can still win the ACC Atlantic if they run the table. The obvious favorite is Virginia Tech but the Hokies also need to run the table.

No. 7 Oregon over Washington State, 52-17
Oregon has scored an average of 52.3 points per game against Washington State the last four years. Oregon might be again without Darron Thomas and LaMichael James while Washington State will be without starting quarterback Jeff Tuel.

No. 3 Oklahoma State over Baylor, 52-38
Two really explosive offenses face off in Stillwater but Baylor doesn’t have enough depth on defense to keep Oklahoma State down.

No. 9 Oklahoma over No. 8 Kansas State, 31-21
Kansas State is STILL undefeated. How much longer will they stay that way? The Wildcats are a double-digit underdog at home against Oklahoma. Kansas State’s best defense is to keep the other team’s offense off the field. Kansas State leads the nation in time of possession with its methodical ball control rushing offense to wear down the opponent’s defense. If Oklahoma can get the ball, they’ll wear down Kansas State’s defense with the hurry-up no-huddle and have too much firepower to be outscored by Kansas State. Kansas State also not a big blitzing team, but that’s how Texas Tech was able to get to Landry Jones.

No. 19 Penn State over Illinois, 23-13
Penn State is seeking revenge for a 20-point loss at home to Illinois last season. This year, it’s a student whiteout and Illinois has lost two straight after starting the season 6-0. Penn State meanwhile is hot in the Big Ten with a 4-0 record and controls its own destiny in the Big Ten championship race.
Illinois is the most physical team Penn State faces since Alabama. The Penn State offensive and defensive lines will have to assert themselves. Silas Redd obviously is the key for Penn State.

UPSET: Florida over No. 22 Georgia, 27-24
Are we really not supposed to call this the world’s largest outdoor cocktail party anymore? Oh well, I just did.
Both teams are coming off a bye week but Georgia loses wide receiver Malcolm Mitchell who did not travel with the team. Florida gets quarterback John Brantley back from a high-ankle sprain he suffered two weeks ago. Brantley being back so quickly is something to watch as he might be one big hit away from exiting the game early.
I like Florida in the matchup if Brantley stays in and plays well and with Jeff Demps being back for Florida also. Florida has won 18 of the last 21 against Georgia. Both teams need this win to stay in the race for the SEC East.

No. 25 West Virginia over Rutgers, 37-24
West Virginia was exploited last week in the 49-23 loss to Syracuse and also put them behind in the Big East race. Rutgers hit a road bump too in Louisville. West Virginia has won 16 straight over Rutgers and this could be the last time the two teams play, with West Virginia headed to the Big 12 Conference.
Watch Rutgers true freshman quarterback Gary Nova, he is going to be a star.

No. 21 Arizona State over Colorado, 45-17
Too much talent for Arizona State and Colorado unsure if quarterback Tyler Hansen will play.

No. 20 Texas Tech over Iowa State, 45-17
Iowa State will continue its skid as Texas Tech continues its rise.

No. 23 Auburn over Ole Miss, 30-14
Auburn gets pounded by LSU and will take its frustrations out on the even more frustrated Ole Miss Rebels who were oh so close to beating Arkansas.

No. 24 Texas over Kansas, 34-24
Texas needs to figure the quarterback situation out between David Ash and Case McCoy and Kansas needs to figure its quarterback situation out between Jordan Webb and Quinn Mecham. Texas has too much defensive talent to let a game slip away to Kansas in Austin.

No. 13 South Carolina over Tennessee, 21-16
This might be the last game South Carolina wins this season, coming off the bye week. South Carolina will start true freshman running back Brandon Wilds and Tennessee will start true freshman quarterback Justin Worley. South Carolina will barely win this game and then begin their losing streak to finish the season.

No. 5 Clemson over Georgia Tech, 38-35
Clemson clearly needs to be on upset alert. Take it from Boise State last week getting by Air Force that triple-option offenses are difficult to handle when you don’t have that extra bye week to prepare, which Clemson doesn’t. Georgia Tech is improving defensively but the last two weeks, Clemson’s offense has looked almost unstoppable.

No. 6 Stanford over USC, 38-34
This going to be a Pac-12 clash against maybe the first two quarterbacks taken in the 2012 NFL Draft with Andrew Luck of Stanford and Matt Barkley of USC. This time, it’s USC trying to spoil Stanford’s undefeated season and national title run. Stanford has to be on a big upset alert with this game in the Coliseum. Robert Woods had 12 catches for 224 yards and three touchdowns last year against Stanford. For the Cardinal, Andrew Luck might throw the ball around more this game, despite the 446 rushing yards last week, because of USC’s injuries and lack of depth in the secondary. USC ranks 108th in the nation in pass defense.

No. 15 Wisconsin over Ohio State, 30-17
It’s tough to see Wisconsin losing two weeks in a row but the Badgers have to be on upset alert in the Horse Shoe in primetime.


Good Matchups
Syracuse over Louisville, 27-14
Both teams picked up big wins last week. Syracuse has to keep that momentum going to win on the road in Louisville. These teams are pretty even on paper on both offense and defense but the big difference is the experience of quarterbacks Ryan Nassib and Teddy Bridgewater.

North Carolina over Wake Forest, 28-27
Wake Forest got a one-point victory over Duke last week. This time North Carolina looks to hand them a one-point loss. North Carolina’s defense was absolutely torched by Clemson. Wake Forest’s run in the ACC has to end at some point. The Demon Deacons are two years away from really competing.

UPSET: Tulsa over SMU, 38-31
Every time you expect a shootout in Conference USA, you get a defensive battle so maybe expect a low scoring game here but Tulsa is riding momentum while SMU has lost some tough games the last couple weeks.

California over UCLA, 31-17
This is going to be it for the Rick Neuheisel era at UCLA. If his fate isn’t already sealed, this one will seal it. No way Neuheisel returns to coach UCLA next year.

UPSET: Arizona over Washington, 38-33
Washington gave up 446 rushing yards to Stanford and Arizona got its running game going for the firs time all season last week. Whether Arizona can keep it going will have a big impact in this game but I like the new Arizona under interim-head coach Tim Kish playing a lot better defense too. I’ll also take the Nick Foles-Juron Criner connection over Keith Price-Jermaine Kearse.

The Rest
Florida State over NC State, 37-17
Northwestern over Indiana, 38-14
Marshall over UAB, 38-14
Central Michigan over Akron, 27-10
Bowling Green over Kent State, 28-14
Air Force over New Mexico, 47-17
Western Michigan over Ball State, 34-31
Maryland over Boston College, 23-14
Notre Dame over Navy, 38-28
Iowa over Minnesota, 45-10
East Carolina over Tulane, 65-10
Miami (OH) over Buffalo, 38-17
Army over Fordham, 49-28
Western Kentucky over La-Monroe, 31-24
Central Florida over Memphis, 45-13
Louisiana Tech over San Jose State, 28-7
Hawaii over Idaho, 45-21
Colorado State over UNLV, 38-24
Mississippi State over Kentucky, 34-17
Arkansas State over North Texas, 34-7
UPSET: Oregon State over Utah, 31-28
La-Lafayette over Middle Tennessee, 35-27
Nevada over New Mexico State, 45-10
Southern Miss over UTEP, 65-21
San Diego State over Wyoming, 45-14