College Football's Final Weekend

December 3, 2010

Headed into the final weekend of college football, Championship Saturday, I've got 200 games watched. Well, I'm watching Illinois and Fresno State right now for my 200th. I think I'm on good pace to beat last year's 241. With this note, I'm changing up the format a little bit. Don't have a lot of time so I'm keeping it simple.

Auburn finally jumped Oregon in the BCS Standings, but it doesn't matter who's No. 1 or No. 2, if they both win tomorrow, they are in the national championship game, and that's the national championship matchup that everyone wants to see (unless you're going to throw in Boise State). No. 1's and No. 2's have traditionally struggled on the final weekend. TCU might be one upset away from playing for a national championship. Are Stanford and Wisconsin two upsets away from a national championship opportunity? Or, if both Oregon and Auburn go down tomorrow, will we have TCU vs. one-loss Auburn? So much could happen. It's exciting, it's compelling, it's nerve-racking. Let's get it started. The only downside to getting it started is that it's going to end.

It could end with great stories for teams like Connecticut, Washington and Florida State and throw in Auburn.

It could end badly for anyone.

Connecticut just needs a win to clinch a berth to the Fiesta Bowl representing the Big East Conference. UConn takes on South Florida at 8pm on ESPN2. the other two Big East teams that are in the three-way tie are West Virginia and Pittsburgh. Both of them play at Noon. By the time UConn takes the field, they will know their situation, but their mindset has to be win anyway.
The home team has won the last seven games in the UConn-South Florida series. South Florida is the home team, Connecticut needs a win. South Florida's defense is good, UConn's Jordan Todman isn't getting enough Doak Walker Award consideration. USF still doesn't know if BJ Daniels will play tomorrow and could go with Bobby Eveld at quarterback. Prediction: South Florida 20, UConn 17
Other Noon games:
West Virginia 34, Rutgers 14 ... I love both these defenses, but Rutgers has gotten torched the past two weeks and West Virginia's offense is on fire. Playmakers all over the field in this one. I expect West Virginia to keep rolling to a  BCS Bowl.
Pittsburgh 34, Cincinnati 17 ... To be honest, who knows what Pittsburgh defense is going to show up, but here's the rematch of last year's epic 45-44 Cincinnati win on the Tony Pike to Armon Binns. Binns is still there for Cincy and so is DJ Woods. They've got weapons, but Collaros is banged up. Pittsburgh needs to break out offensively against another Cincy team that doesn't play defense.

At 2pm on ESPNU, Troy will take on Florida Atlantic whose three of four wins were by one point, but Middle Tennessee ended its quest for bowl eligibility. Neither team has much to play for, Troy lost to FIU to lose the Sun Belt Conference and their spot in the GoDaddy.com Bowl is almost guaranteed. This is just a regular matchup, no intangibles or outlying factors. Troy's offense will light up FAU. Prediction: Troy 45, Florida Atlantic 13

At 3pm on espn3.com, Boise State takes the field against Utah State in its final regular season game. I can't wait to see how Boise State comes out after losing to Nevada and having all of its dreams come crashing down. I'm not off the Boise Bus yet, sure it crashed/broke down/whatever, but even though it stopped going, I'm still sitting on it. I still very much believe in this Boise State team and just because they got complacent at halftime last week does not mean they are not a good football team. Good football teams find a way to win, and they did with the Kellen Moore pass to Titus Young, only Kyle Brotzman missed the 26 yard field goal to win. But Boise found a way. Tell me that Boise State is not the best one-loss team in the country. Prediction: Boise State 56, Utah State 20

Boise is looking for a big bounce back game while Nevada (also 3pm on espn3.com) will be trying not to have a huge letdown game against Louisiana Tech. Prediction: Nevada 42, Louisiana Tech 17

At 3:30pm we get one of the Saturday's big games where ESPN's College Gameday is in Corvallis, Oregon for the Civil War. Oregon goes head-to-head against its archrival Oregon State. Last year Oregon State needed a win here to go to the Rose Bowl. Didn't get it. This year, Oregon needs a win here to go to the national championship game. Jacquizz Rodgers has to have a huge day and Ryan Katz needs to have a huge day for Oregon State. There are some holes in the Oregon secondary, even though the pass rush and speed makes up for a lot of it. I'm finally sold on the Ducks after watching them do work against a better defense in Arizona last week. I'd like to give Oregon State a chance, and it's a rivalry game where you throw everything out, but no upset here. It's hard for me to picture Oregon in the national championship game, but this could be the year. Not enough speed on Oregon State's defense, if they don't fill their gaps, game over. Prediction: Oregon 45, Oregon State 28

Then it's the big one. I love this matchup. I have thought about this game 24/7 for two weeks. In fact, I've thought about since September when I talked about what would happen if these two met again the SEC Championship. Well, here it is. the 2010 SEC Championship Game: Auburn vs. South Carolina. I love Steve Spurrier, one of my favorite coaches. I love Alshon Jeffery, one of my favorite players. Also, on that SC team, I like Stephon Gilmore and I'm quickly becoming a fan of Marcus Lattimore. Auburn has Cam Newton. South Carolina led in the fourth quarter of the 35-27 loss in September before turning the ball over on four straight possessions. That won't happen this time. Stephen Garcia needs to play well, I say that every week. He has played well and I feel like he's much more confident now. Auburn has definitely earned everything they got this year and by doing so, earned this extra championship game. That's my case right there that Auburn is going to be the best one-loss team in the country after this game. There won't be a ninth comeback of the year for Auburn as South Carolina will win on an Alshon Jeffery 42 yard touchdown inside two minutes left to play. But Auburn had to play this extra game. Playing in your conference championship game is supposed to be a reward, not a roadblock. If they lose a close one, Auburn MUST be in the national championship game still. The year where Oklahoma lost to Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship Game and STILL went to the national championship game set the precedent for this.Auburn is my "team of destiny" this year, but I like South Carolina in this particular game. Both have good defenses, that are both vulnerable to big pass plays (South Carolina 99th, Auburn 107th). South Carolina has a better idea of how to defend Cam Newton now while Marcus Lattimore is expected to be much more involved in the gameplan this time for the Gamecocks. I can't wait. Prediction: South Carolina 33, Auburn 31

Florida International has the Sun Belt Conference all locked up and is likely headed to the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl, but Middle Tennessee has something to say about a bowl of their own. I like the Blue Raiders to pull this upset and become bowl eligible at 6pm on espn3.com. Prediction: Middle Tennessee 27, Florida International 24

And after watching those nine games during the day, I will head into my primetime showdowns. Washington and Washington State play in the Apple Cup on Versus at 7pm. This game's recently been given the label of the "Crapple Cup" but it's all apples this time. Washington quarterback Jake Locker skipped early entry to the NFL for one thing: to come back and lead this Washington team to a bowl game. Earlier in the year it looked like it wouldn't happen and Locker was hurt. He's still playing with broken ribs, but he has the chance to beat the rival and get to a bowl game. In Jake Locker I trust. Prediction: Washington 35, Washington State 24

At 7:45pm it's the ACC Championship Game. Florida State vs. Virginia Tech. It just has the feel of a big championship game that this game has been lacking in recent years. I've said all year that Virginia Tech is the best team in the ACC, and heck, if they hadn't had that letdown game against James Madison in Week 2, then we'd be saying Virginia Tech is the best one-loss team in the country right now. Their only loss would've been by 3 to Boise State on opening night. The Hokies have controlled the ACC for a while now, and Florida State hasn't been to the Orange Bowl since 2005. Bobby Bowden is gone, Jimbo Fisher is in his first year and FSU is one of the country's hottest teams right now coming off a 31-7 stomping on Florida. Times are changin' and so is my mind. When I started typing this note, I was going to pick Virginia Tech. Now I'm picking Florida State even if running back Jermaine Thomas is out. I watched this FSU team play in-person at Maryland on Nov. 20. that was a great experience. I met Jimbo Fisher, he's as classy as can be. I met Christian Ponder, one of my favorite players in the nation. In Ponder I trust. I remember when he was a freshman and now he's a senior. The Chick-Fil-A Bowl has announced it will invite the loser of this game. Virginia Tech is better "suited" for the Chick-Fil-A Bowl than Florida State is. The stars are aligning and it's all coming together. Jimbo Fisher's first year, Florida State makes the BCS. Prediction: Florida State 23, Virginia Tech 20

Then we get real Prime Time with Connecticut and South Florida, I gave my prediction earlier.

On ABC's Saturday Night Football is the Dr. Pepper Big 12 Championship Game between Oklahoma and Nebraska. These old rivals. And the fact that both head coaches, Bob Stoops and Bo Pelini, grew up together. For one moment in my life, please, let me just be biased. I love the Big 12 Conference and saying goodbye to it as I know it brings tears to my eyes. Nebraska is leaving the conference to join the Big Ten. It's breaking apart my Big 12 and leaving us with ten teams and no more North-South divisions. Changes are coming. Now Commissioner Dan Beebe announced yesterday that the Big 12 will expand back to 12 teams and two divisions "very soon" which gets me excited because three months ago he said they would stay at 10 teams.

In this game, I will be biased, and I will root like I've never rooted before for Oklahoma (disgusting I know) to obliterate Nebraska. We cannot and we will not let this Nebraska team win our conference championship and then bolt for another conference. That is unacceptable. Now, my Texas Longhorns who beat Nebraska in this game last year doesn't have a say, so I have to rely on my biggest rival to get it done and I will. I hate everything about Oklahoma from Boomer Sooner to Landry Jones to Bob Stoops to Jimmy Stevens to their gymnastics teams. Hate everything about them. But they're a good football (that Texas should have beat). Oklahoma has a better defense than it's shown and Nebraska's defense is great. Offensively, Nebraska says Taylor Martinez will play but Cody Green probably will, too. Niles Paul is out with a foot injury and Oklahoma will stop the run. Now it's up to what Nebraska's defense will do. Landry Jones threw five interceptions in a loss against Nebraska last year. Remember? I'm sure he remembers, and he's a competitor.Prediction: Oklahoma 24, Nebraska 16

And then the dust settles. Then we wait for Selection Sunday. Three bowl matchups (Pinstripe: Kansas State vs. Syracuse; New Mexico: BYU vs. UTEP; Poinsettia: Navy vs. San Diego State) are already set. Everything will become official Sunday night including who plays in the BCS and the national championship game. Oregon vs. Auburn, Oregon vs. one-loss Auburn, Auburn vs. TCU, Auburn vs. Stanford, Auburn vs. Wisconsin, I don't care as long as Auburn is included, one-loss or not. No I am not an Auburn fan. I have rooted for Auburn in the past, but I am not an Auburn fan. I am a college football lifer and lifers know how things should be. SHOULD be, not will be. Auburn SHOULD be in the national championship game unless they get dominated. Enough said.

UNLV and Hawaii will probably end my night with a 10:30pm game on espn3.com while I keep an eye on USC-UCLA, too.