Upsets Galore this Weekend

October 29, 2010

This is a new one: “Roadblock Saturday.” That is what ESPN is labeling this weekend’s action of college football as and I actually like that term. Boise State already took care of Louisiana Tech at home on Tuesday, but the six other remaining undefeated teams are all playing in tough road games on Saturday, thus the “roadblock.”

There is a possibility of a huge number of upsets this weekend, and Thursday night we already saw one as unranked North Carolina State upset 16th-ranked Florida State. NC State almost lost another one in the fourth quarter when Florida State had the game-winning touchdown in its sights and Christian Ponder fumbled away the football with 48 seconds left. It hands FSU its first conference lost, and in my mind it opens up the door for Clemson even though I would like to see a Florida State-Virginia Tech ACC Championship Game. I feel really bad for Ponder though, he did everything he could to win that game. Ponder’s just one of those guys for me that we all have, the guys we love to root for but not be a fan of the team they play for. Ponder’s one of them for me along with Blaine Gabbert, Aldon Smith and the list goes on.

As I mentioned earlier, Oregon, Auburn, TCU, Michigan State, Utah, and Missouri are all undefeated and all playing on the road Saturday. The only one who is “guaranteed” to come away with a win is TCU against UNLV. The other teams will have to really work hard for the W.

Which upsets am I calling for? The last three weeks correct upset picks: LSU over Florida (back when Florida was the favorite), South Carolina over Alabama, Texas over Nebraska, and Missouri over Oklahoma. My Upset Pick of the Week this week? You’ll just have to keep reading to find out.

So again, this is another Saturday where there aren’t many intriguing noon games. Oklahoma State-Kansas State is one I will touch on briefly later. Clemson at Boston College figures to be a good one and a must-win for Clemson and also Pitt will be challenged at home by Louisville. The games on ESPN’s national broadcasts however are Miami at Virginia and Purdue at Illinois. Two pretty lackluster games. Syracuse at Cincinnati will be a good one on ESPNU, if Zach Collaros doesn’t play for Cincy, Syracuse wins another big game on the road. Also watch out for Tennessee at South Carolina on ESPN3.com.

Scroll down for my Upset Picks, there’s a lot of potential for upsets this week.

Here are the matchups I’m intrigued by on Saturday, October 30.
And here's where I'll be watching them: Awesome

Last Week's Thoughts

3:30 Kickoffs
Michigan State at Iowa
Oh, Iowa. All year I preached that you are the best team in the Big Ten and that my season prediction for you was the one-loss to Arizona and then go undefeated to the Rose Bowl. The Rose Bowl is an absolute long shot now, you need to win this game, beat Ohio State, and hope Wisconsin loses. The Big Ten Conference tiebreaker is the head-to-head between the two highest ranked teams in the BCS Standings. Therefore, the aforementioned scenario must happen for Iowa to be one of those top two.
Iowa’s special teams let them down in the one-point loss to Wisconsin and the Badgers were able to tire out the Hawkeyes defense. Similar style of play coming from Michigan State, but no way Iowa loses two home games in a row. Michigan State is going to cause a lot of noise if they win this game because the rest of the schedule is favorable for them to go undefeated and cause some BCS debate. Is Michigan State worthy of the BCS in my eyes? No. Iowa is the better team here, Michigan State will be the better team next year. They’re a year away from being great.
Both teams have above average passing games but are run first teams. Michigan State has some great linebackers that need to get some credit: Greg Jones and company, but they’re a bit undersized, but very athletic. And again, Iowa’s defensive line is going wreak havoc on Michigan State’s game. Kirk Cousins is going to deal with a lot of pressure. Not sure yet if Michigan State cornerback Chris Rucker is going to play, though he has been reinstated after serving an eight day jail sentence for violating probation with a DUI.
Better defense for Iowa, Kinnick Stadium will be rocking, more offensive firepower for Iowa. We’ll see if Michigan State can stage another fourth quarter comeback.
By the way I just saw the ESPN commercial advertising this game. Notice how the commercial said Michigan State is a “BCS hopeful” instead of “BCS Contender.”
Prediction: Iowa 31, Michigan State 28
Matchup to watch: Iowa C James Ferentz vs. Michigan State NT Blake Treadwell
Key Player: Iowa WR Marvin McNutt; Michigan State QB Kirk Cousins
Result: Iowa 37, Michigan 6

Missouri at Nebraska
“What about us?” said Missouri when Nebraska got every bit of the hype in the Big 12 North Division. Well Missouri, time to prove your worth.
Missouri took down Oklahoma last week while Nebraska held off Oklahoma State with a 51-41 win. No, Nebraska’s defense is not that bad, yet Oklahoma State scored 41? It was a matchup problem. Nebraska is not built to stop an all-out passing attack, yet they are also vulnerable to the inside run as OKST’s Kendall Hunter rushed for 146 yards, mostly up the middle, in the first half.
Guess what, similar kind of matchup problem against Missouri. Missouri will without a doubt score against Nebraska, that’s not my concern. My concern is how many points will the Missouri defense give up to Nebraska.
This is a game that I have been waffling over, going back and forth between Nebraska and Missouri. You would think the game is in Lincoln, Nebraska’s the big favorite and Missouri’s due for a letdown.
The downside is that I haven’t been able to see this Missouri defense go against a zone-read offense yet this year and saw it minimally last year, but this Missouri defense is so different than it was a year ago.
I’m going to highlight Missouri defensive end Aldon Smith again. I said he was going to be the key factor into Missouri beating Oklahoma and he came up big with two sacks and an interception. This week, it’s up to Smith again because he will be the end that Taylor Martinez is reading with the zone-read most of the time. I think Nebraska wins but I like Missouri to pull a shocker. Makes sense, right?
Nebraska is a great team, but Missouri is also the real-deal. National championship good? No. Good enough to beat Nebraska? Yes.
Prediction: Missouri 35, Nebraska 34
Matchups to Watch: Missouri OC David Yost vs. Nebraska DC Carl Pelini
Jerrell Jackson vs. Prince Amukamara
Jackson is Missouri’s big outside threat and had a huge day against Oklahoma, but Amukamara is Nebraska’s shutdown corner and has only allowed 8 completions all year. Four of those went to Oklahoma State’s Justin Blackmon last week. If Blackmon can get four catches, Jackson can get _____.
Key Player: Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert; Nebraska QB Taylor Martinez
Result: Nebraska 31, Missouri 17

Florida vs. Georgia
This great rivalry is here again. This time both teams are unranked, but they both stand a chance to win the SEC East Division. The loser however, is more than likely eliminated.
Florida still plays South Carolina and can control its own destiny with this win. Georgia lost to South Carolina in September so it needs a win here and a future South Carolina loss.
Florida’s offense is struggling and the defense isn’t what it used to be. Georgia’s  offense is coming around finally, scoring 40 points the last two games and Georgia’s defense is showing continuous improvements.
I’m sorry to say this, but Florida just isn’t very good. They have nothing on offense but Jeff Demps. And not to take anything away from John Brantley, yes he’s not Tim Tebow, but he’s not bad. Brantley is a good quarterback but he has nothing around him. Tebow had Percy Harvin, Aaron Hernandez, Riley Cooper, etc. Brantley had no one that the Gators turned Chris Rainey into a wide receiver. And Rainey I believe will play after serving his suspension for being charged with aggravated stalking.
I can’t picture Florida losing four games in a row, I really can’t. But this matchup favors Georgia while the line favors Florida.
Georgia wins to add a little more cushion to Coach Mark Richt’s hot seat. Whoever the douchebag is that created the “Fire Urban Meyer” website by the way needs to chill. This is not the end of the world for Florida football and Coach Meyer, it’s just a bump in the road, a rebuilding year. Florida will be relevant on the national stage again next year. I just feel bad for Urban Meyer, he’s a good man and the look of pain on his face after the Mississippi State loss…
Prediction: Georgia 31, Florida 24
Matchup to Watch: Georgia WR AJ Green vs. Florida CB Janoris Jenkins
Key Player: Georgia WR AJ Green; Florida RB Jeff Demps
Result: Florida 37, Georgia 34 (Overtime)

East Carolina at Central Florida
Conference USA anyone? I’ve gotten to see a lot of East Carolina and Central Florida this year and the answer is simple: one team plays defense, the other doesn’t. The one that doesn’t however has a much more explosive offense.
This is the big game of the year (who would’ve thought we’d say big game and Central Florida in the same paragraph). Both teams are undefeated in conference, and East Carolina has taken the C-USA title the last few years. They have a new offense in place, still no defense, and now some competition in the East Division. The winner of this game gets put in the driver’s seat.
Central Florida is a win or two away from being in the Top 25. No joke. The Knights right now only lack a signature win, and this could be it, or at Houston next week. The Knights’ two losses have come at a total of 10 points to North Carolina State and Kansas State. Granted, East Carolina beat NC State in overtime, but the Pirates’ two losses were blowout losses to Virginia Tech and North Carolina.
This is the game where Central Florida can finally break through, but it’s going to be tough. They’re playing true freshman Jeffrey Godfrey at quarterback and Ronnie Weaver has stepped into the running back spot. Top receiver AJ Guyton has been out but came back against Rice last week and the Central Florida offense has been putting up 40 points against inferior defenses. East Carolina is another vulnerable defense. But what has been overlooked in UCF blowouts is how well the defense plays. This is one of the top 10 defenses in the country and a dominant run defense with a great pass rush. Justin Boddie, #23, is a great corner to watch, and don’t forget to watch Bruce Miller who is their top NFL prospect. Central Florida shut down Marshall’s run game, held Sam McGuffie to under 70 yards and held Kansas State’s Daniel Thomas to 3 yards per carry.
That said, good luck defending East Carolina. With new head coach Ruffin McNeill bringing in Lincoln Riley from Texas Tech as the offensive coordinator, ECU has gone to the Air Raid attack. Central Florida doesn’t have the depth in the secondary to match-up well and no answer for the 6-foot-8 tight end/receiver Justin Jones.
Prediction: ECU 33, UCF 24
Matchup to Watch: UCF DE Bruce Miller vs. ECU RT Grant Harner
Key Player: Central Florida DE Bruce Miller; East Carolina QB Dominique Davis
Result: Central Florida 49, East Carolina 35

7:00 Kickoff
Stanford at Washington
If you’ve been listening to me on ComRadio you probably found out by now I like trends. No matter how useless trends and statistics are, they are fun to follow. By the way, College Gameday is going to go undefeated this year. They haven’t lost yet.
Anyway, here’s the trend for this game, Washington plays bad, plays good, plays bad, plays good, plays bad, plays good, plays bad, and now plays _____. I’m willing to fill in that blank with “good.” And interesting that the Washington schedule makes it perfect for this pattern to continue. Play good in this game, then bad against Oregon, good against UCLA, bad against Cal, and good against Washington State. It all comes together perfectly.
If you like quarterback play, this is the game to watch: Andrew Luck vs. Jake Locker. Todd McShay had Andrew Luck at No. 1, Mel Kiper had Jake Locker. I had Andrew Luck if anyone cares. Now we all agree it’s Andrew Luck.
Luck will be without top receiver Chris Owusu and Stanford will be without safety Delano Howell. Locker is being slowed by injuries by his top receiver Jermaine Kearse has finally gotten over his dropping passes problem.
Washington’s defense is better than the numbers suggest. Stanford’s defense is just not very athletic.
It all hinges on the quarterback play though with Luck and Locker. I expect both to play well, but I love Andrew Luck so I’m not going to say he gives the game up. I’m going to say Jake Locker engineers a game-winning drive.
Prediction: Washington 31, Stanford 30
Matchup to Watch: Stanford QB Andrew Luck’s “It” Factor vs. Washington QB Jake Locker’s “It” Factor
Key Player: Stanford QB Andrew Luck; Washington QB Jake Locker
Result: Stanford 41, Washington 0

Baylor at Texas
Texas has not lost a home game in consecutive weeks since 1938. So far, they have lost their last two games at home to get this: UCLA and Iowa State. Those should have been two blowout wins if this was the Texas team we were used to watching in past years.
Baylor is ranked for the first time in fifteen years and are in the BCS Standings. That won’t last very long, I left Baylor out of my rankings because I don’t include teams that play defense.
The Baylor offense is explosive as ever though and Jay Finley has been putting good numbers on the ground. The Baylor offense revolves around electric QB Robert Griffin. Texas’s defense has been disrespected, and the defense will rebound in this game. Baylor’s spread offense actually puts Texas at an advantage because I described it like this: Texas is a finesse defense and not a physical defense. They couldn’t handle the physical running games of UCLA and Iowa State, but are able to soundly defend the spread and zone-read. Plain and simple.
Offensively against Baylor’s defense, Texas has to get offense going. I saw some signs of the offense coming together and it’s good to see John Chiles making plays at receiver. Now there are two guys that can catch: Chiles and the true freshman Mike Davis.
Don’t expect conservative play-calling from Greg Davis anymore after Mack Brown called out his players and coaching staffs. Against a Baylor defense, Davis is going to look to pour it on and open it up for Garrett Gilbert in both the passing and running games.
Baylor leads the Big 12 South Division right now, that won’t last for long, but thanks to the Texas loss to Iowa State, they still need Oklahoma to lose twice. All Texas had to do was win-out and watch Missouri beat Oklahoma and then hope Oklahoma loses again down the road. Now Texas still needs Oklahoma to lose twice, not to mention Oklahoma State will be a big game.
Prediction: Texas 31, Baylor 21
Matchup to Watch: Baylor WR Kendall Wright vs. Texas CB Aaron Williams
Key Player: Baylor QB Robert Griffin; Texas LB Emmanuel Acho
Result: Baylor 30, Texas 22

Primetime 8:00 Kickoffs
Oregon at USC
Upset Pick of the Week.
ESPN’s College Gameday is in L.A. for this game and everywhere Gameday has been, the home team has won. I’ll take my chances with USC.
I’m not sold on Oregon, I’m just not. After this game I might be, but until then Oregon is still fighting with Auburn for the No. 2 spot in my rankings.
Oregon rolled over USC in Autzen last year 47-20 and had 613 total yards of offense. This is a so-called revenge game for USC (although we often see how revenge games turn out, see Texas at Nebraska). Oregon’s offense this year is averaging 569 yards per game. Okay, they have a great offense. I’m buying into now after I was able to watch Darron Thomas throw the ball against UCLA. But I’m not sold on Oregon being a complete team. The defense is undersized, but very fast and athletic and leads the Pac-10 in interceptions. USC QB Matt Barkley is completely of the Heisman radar but has 20 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions and is coming off a career game.
USC had the bye week to prepare, and just ask Alabama how important a bye week is to the opponent. Only poorly coached or overmatched teams lose after the bye week. USC is neither.
USC’s two losses have come against Stanford and Washington, but both on last-second field goals. USC could easily be undefeated right now.
The USC offensive line will protect Barkley from Kenny Rowe and Barkley will have another big day. Allen Bradford will pound the ball in the run game against the undersized Oregon defense. USC will be able to keep Oregon off the field. The only advantage Oregon holds is the high-tempo offense while USC lacks some depth for fresh bodies defensively.
Prediction: USC 35, Oregon 30
Matchup to Watch: Allen Bradford vs. Oregon Linebackers; Matt Barkley vs. Oregon Secondary
Key Player: Oregon QB Darron Thomas; USC RB Allen Bradford
Result: Oregon 53, USC 32

Michigan at Penn State
Upset in Happy Valley? Not Illinois over Penn State, no in fact, Penn State is the winner.
Michigan comes in with the hopes of turning their season around, which is what Penn State is trying to do too. Michigan started last year undefeated and then collapsed late in the season. This year they are repeating that trend starting 5-0 and now losing two straight.
Penn State starting QB Rob Bolden was cleared to play but will be held out with the concussion he suffered last week. There’s rumblings that back-up QB Kevin Newsome will be having season-ending knee surgery. In steps the former walk-on Matt McGloin. After McGloin played fairly well last week, some fans up here have been calling for him to take the full-time job. I was on Bolden’s side, but there are a lot of people, most notably at The Lion station that want McGloin.
The key has been to slow down Denard Robinson. Easier said than done. I don’t know if Penn State has an athlete in the linebacking corps that can match up as the spy on Robinson. Tate Forcier played extremely well in relief of Robinson, and that’s important because Robinson has been knocked out of the last two ball games. If you slow down Robinson, you slow down Michigan’s entire offense. They have capable players like Junior Hemingway and Roy Roundtree, but no real offensive weapons. No running game outside of the quarterback, either.
Michigan’s defense comes in ranked 117th in the country. If you’ve watched Michigan play (I have seen them three times), they’re not stopping anybody. It’s going to be very important that Evan Royster takes advantage of the opportunity to get Penn State’s all-time rushing record with a big day against the Michigan defense. If he gains 50 yards for the record, it will be an embarrassment. Royster needs to have a 100-yard day.
I also expect McGloin to come in and play well. Derek Moye will have a big day, guaranteed. Michigan can’t match up with Penn State’s receivers, so what it always comes down to is the play of the Penn State offensive line.
Penn State over Michigan. I like the sound of that. But remember Penn State, after beating Michigan it becomes even more vital that you do not overlook Northwestern or Indiana.
Prediction: Penn State 30, Michigan 21
Matchup to Watch: Evan Royster vs. Michigan Run Defense
Key Player: Penn State RB Evan Royster; Michigan QB Denard Robinson
Result: Penn State 41, Michigan 31

UPSET ALERTS TO…
Auburn vs. Ole Miss
Mississippi State vs. Kentucky
Texas vs. Baylor
Pittsburgh vs. Louisville
Clemson vs. Boston College
Arizona vs. UCLA

And now, MY UPSET PICKS
Kansas State over Oklahoma State
Syracuse over Cincinnati
Iowa over Michigan State
Georgia over Florida
Missouri over Nebraska
Washington over Stanford
Penn State over Michigan
USC over Oregon

Predictions for My Top 25
My Top 25  
#1 Boise State 49, Louisiana Tech 14
Result: BOISE 49, LATECH 20
#2 Oregon 30, #20 USC 35
Result: ORE 53, USC 32
#3 Auburn 34, Ole Miss 24
Result: AUB 51, MISS 31
#5 TCU 45, UNLV 6
Result: TCU 48, UNLV 6
#6 Michigan State 28, #19 Iowa 31
Result: IOWA 37, MSU 6
#7 Utah 34, Air Force 24
Result: UTAH 28, AF 23
#10 Missouri 35, #13 Nebraska 34
Result: NEB 31, MIZZ 17
#11 Ohio State 44, Minnesota 13
Result: OSU 52, MIN 10
#12 Oklahoma 45, Colorado 3
Result: OU 43, COL 10
#14 Arizona 27, UCLA 21
Result: ARI 29, UCLA 21
#15 Stanford 30, Washington 33
Result: STAN 41, UW 0
#16 Florida State 31, NC State 21
Result: NCST 28, FSU 24
#18 South Carolina 35, Tennessee 10
Result: SCAR 38, TEN 24
#21 Arkansas 48, Vanderbilt 10
Result: ARK 49, VANDY 14
#22 Miami 34, Virginia 13
Result: UVA 24, MIA 19
#23 Mississippi State 27, Kentucky 23
Result: MSST 24, UK 17
#24 Oklahoma State 38, Kansas State 42
Result: OKST 24, KSU 14
#25 Pittsburgh 28, Louisville 24
Result: PITT 20, LVILLE 3

Heisman Matchups to Watch: Cam Newton vs. Ole Miss
Kellen Moore vs. Louisiana Tech 20-28 298 yards, 2 TD passes
Matt Barkley vs. Oregon Secondary
LaMichael James vs. USC Defense
Andrew Luck vs. Jake Locker
Off this week: LSU’s Patrick Peterson
Off this week: Oklahoma State’s Justin Blackmon, suspended one game for DUI