Thursday Bowl Games

December 30, 2010


Surprise: there's a team playing today that I have not watched all year. Are you shocked? I am.
We have four six-loss teams playing today, one of them played in their conference championship game and another is facing a 10-win team. Good luck, Washington.


MATCHUP ADVANTAGES
Bowl Mania
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl: SMU (7-6) vs. Army (6-6), Noon on ESPN
Last year, SMU quarterback Kyle Padron was the breakout freshman of bowl season. So far it’s been Iowa’s freshman running back Marcus Coker and Padron hasn’t had a performance like he did in last year’s Hawaii Bowl in a while. He did however lead SMU to its firs Conference-USA championship game before losing to Central Florida for a spot in the Liberty Bowl.
Army, with its triple-option attack and No. 9 rushing offense, is in a bowl game for the first time since 1996 and it was great to see all three service academies play in a bowl game this year. Army is the last to play as Navy lost to San Diego State in the Poinsettia Bowl and Air Force beat Georgia Tech in the Independence Bowl.
There are two teams that are in bowl games that I didn’t watch, not once, during the regular season. That’s pretty surprising considered I watched over 220 games and I try to get at least one look at every team, but I missed out on Army and also Florida International who beat Toledo earlier this week.
Anyway, these are two very contrasting offenses with Army’s triple-option and SMU’s run-n-shoot. Not having seen Army play this year I can’t say much about their formations and such since I can’t do any film study but for SMU, they lost to Navy’s triple-option offense earlier this year while Army faced a passing offense in Hawaii and lost that game.
Defenses for the academies are always very disciplined and tough, but I like SMU in this one with two 1,000 yard receivers Aldrick Robinson and Cole Beasley and even Zach Line pounding the running game with 107 yards per game on the ground. Former linebacker right there.
SMU’s defense will be good enough to hold Army down and Army hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record since 2005.
Prediction: SMU 31, Army 17
Players to watch: SMU WR Aldrick Robinson; Army RB Jared Hassin

New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Syracuse (7-5) vs. Kansas State (7-5), 3:20pm on ESPN
Running the ball is Kansas State’s strength and maybe their biggest defense too because by milking the clock they can keep the other team’s offense off the field. Kansas State ranks 119th in rush defense and had teams run for over 200 yards against them seven times including 373 yards from North Texas of the Sun Belt Conference. Embarrassing.
Syracuse is back in a bowl game as Doug Marrone has this team going in the right direction and they’re playing in their home state for the inaugural Pinstripe Bowl in Yankee Stadium. For Kansas State, they should feel right at home in Manhattan also as they go from the Little Apple of Manhattan, Kansas to the Big Apple.
Syracuse is going to need to ride its defense in this game as neither offense is spectacular. Kansas State should have quarterback Carson Coffman healthy and ready to go, if not and Collin Klein is the QB, it’s a one dimensional offense going against a stout front seven for Syracuse with Chandler Jones, Doug Hogue and Derrell Smith.
I haven’t watched a lot of Kansas State this year and saw six Syracuse games, but I know Bill Snyder will have K-State ready to play. In what should be a cold weather game, the run game will be the most important factor and the Wildcats are 1-7 when Daniel Thomas runs for 90 yards or less.
Syracuse’s offense will rely on the running of Delone Carter but they can throw the ball too with Ryan Nassib, only a sophomore. Syracuse is a program that’s really on the rise and college football needs Syracuse to be good again. This bowl win in their home state would be huge for that and they gotta be inspired to play for punter Rob Long who is recovering from brain cancer.
Prediction: Syracuse 16, Kansas State 14
Players to watch: Syracuse LB Doug Hogue; Kansas State RB Daniel Thomas

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl: Tennessee (6-6) vs. North Carolina (7-5), 6:40pm on ESPN
It’s been a disappointing year for North Carolina, I honestly believe we’re looking at a top-15 team if all of those preseason suspensions weren’t handed down to half the roster (exaggeration). As a fan of college football, I just think about what could have been. This could have been the most dominant defense of all time before six starts from the defense were suspended.
For this game, North Carolina is going to be without star linebacker Bruce Carter, left guard Alan Pelc and running back Anthony Elzy with injury. Elzy was the team’s third-starting running back of the season behind Shaun Draughn and Johnny White. It looks like Draughn will get the job back for this game.
Some key notes: North Carolina’s committed 15 turnovers in their five losses, six in their seven wins.  Tennessee also has their share of turnovers, especially in the special teams game with losing fumbles on punt returns. I hope Tennessee has noticed that the theme of the week is muffed punts. I’ve esen way too many muffed punts this week and Tennessee doesn’t want to add to that and give UNC a short field.
North Carolina is the more experienced team and Tennessee’s won four straight under true freshman Tyler Bray taking over at quarterback but he hasn’t faced a defense like North Carolina, even without their stars they still have Kendric Burney and Deunta Williams in the secondary. Love those two guys.
Some great receivers in this game too with North Carolina’s Erik Highsmith and Dwight Jones who has stepped up for the void left by suspended Greg Little. Zack Pianalto is also an outstanding receiving tight end if he’s healthy. Tennessee counters with playmakers like Denarius Moore and Gerald Jones and tight end Luke Stocker who is very underrated but watch out for true freshman Da’Rick Rogers to make a play or two. Defensively, watch for Tennessee safety Janzen Jackson as well.
Neither team can really rely on the run game to create enough balance so there’s going to be pressure on both quarterbacks, TJ Yates and Bray. Tennessee has struggled against the only good defenses it’s faced, but UNC’s defense can be vulnerable now.
Prediction: Tennessee 24, North Carolina 20
Players to watch: Tennessee QB Tyler Bray; North Carolina LB Quan Sturdivant

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl: Nebraska (10-3) vs. Washington (6-6), 10:00pm on ESPN
September 18, 2010: Nebraska 56, Washington 21. Ring a bell? Yeah, that happened earlier this year. Rarely do we get rematches in bowl games, but even rarer is that we get a rematch of a game that was a complete blowout the first time around. Normally, during the rematches the game could go either way but not this one. I have Nebraska as my No. 2 lock behind Boise State in Bowl Mania.
Nebraska’s in the Holiday Bowl again after shutting out Arizona here last year 33-0 and I think that defensive play is going to carry over into this year’s Holiday Bowl. Washington QB Jake Locker went 4-20 for 70 yards the first time against Nebraska. Now, Chris Polk is a better running back and Jermaine Kearse has done better on his dropped passes but Locker’s banged up with broken ribs and this is his final audition for the NFL Draft. Speaking of draft, Locker would look pretty good in a Minnesota Vikings uniform wouldn’t he? I think so.
But the fact that Washington needed a last second touchdown pass from Locker to beat Washington State just to become bowl eligible really worries me. Washington couldn’t put away the Cougars, the same Washington State team that just got its first conference win in forever.
Nebraska didn’t fulfill their goal of winning the Big 12 Championship and now this is their last act as part of the Big 12 Conference before they join the Big Ten next year.
Nebraska was on the nation’s premier rushing offenses with dual-threat quarterback (well except he can’t really pass) Taylor Martinez and two outstanding backs, Roy Helu Jr. and Rex Burkhead. In their 10 wins, this offense averaged 458.4 total yards. In the September win over Washington they had 383 yards on the ground. In the Nebraska losses though, they were defensive struggles and Nebraska averaged only 267 total yards including a season-low 202 yards vs. Texas.
For those that watched the Big 12 Championship Game loss to Oklahoma saw all those fumbles and that’s been the problem all year for Nebraska—fumbling the football but they recover over half of their own fumbles which is huge.
The Nebraska offense hasn’t been the same as Taylor Martinez has been hobbled but he is healthy and he will start. The Nebraska defense dominated Washington once before and I don’t think Washington has the personnel to beat Nebraska but again it’s a bowl game and bowl games are all about attitude and motivation, who wants to be there more. Nebraska got snubbed and is in the Holiday Bowl while Washington is in a bowl for the first time in a long time. I’m banking on Nebraska to play well, at the very least their defense will hold down the fort. Prince Amukamara and Alfonzo Dennard is the nation’s best corner duo and they have DeJon Gomes and Eric Hagg in that secondary as well to make Locker’s day tough especially with guys like Jared Crick and Cameron Meredith getting after him.
Prediction: Nebraska 33, Washington 14
Players to watch: Nebraska K/P Alex Henery; Washington QB Jake Locker